New Poll: GOP In Danger Of Losing House In November

[UCmeNdc]

A newly released poll from Public Policy Polling shows that the GOP is by no means assured of retaining control of the House after the mid-term elections next fall. Apparently, a major factor in turning the electorate against many Republican incumbents was their vote to shut the government down last October.

Although they tried to place the blame on the President and Senate Democrats, it has long been apparent that the voting public is not gullible, knowing that it was the House Republicans and their determination to find a way to repeal Obamacare who were actually responsible for the shutdown.


http://crooksandliars.com/2014/04/devastating-new-poll-gop-danger-losing


The Democratic Party still needs an outstanding GOTV effort.

[Nictuku]

1. K&R x 1000!

[fleabiscuit]

51. +1 K&R! n/t

[woodsprite]

2. All the more reason to GOTV! Let's bury them in votes against them!!! n/t

[liskddksil]

3. Not to be buzzkill but this data is from October nt

[bulloney]

35. Yes, and by the time the November elections roll around...

voters will vote the assholes back in. Congress has a horrible approval rating, but more than 95% of incumbents get re-elected. There's the money factor, giving incumbents a huge advantage over any challenger. Plus, voters are in denial that their congressman is part of the problem because of party loyalty. There's another sector that is of the mindset, "He may be an asshole, but he's OUR asshole." Examples: David Vitter and Mark Sanford.

I've said for years that if the people of my county were half as loyal to their faith as they are to their politics, this whole county would be up for sainthood.

[demwing]

36. Not a "New Poll" at all

This predates the flawed rollout of Obamacare. What value does it have now?

[Hayduke Bomgarte]

4. it has long been apparent that the voting public is not gullible

OK... I'm calling bullshit on that.

[rep the dems]

18. That was my first thought as well

This is more a case of a blind squirrel finding a nut once in a while than the infinite wisdom of the average American voter. Good news regardless.

[Hayduke Bomgarte]

41. the infinite wisdom of the average American voter

Is such that I am amazed when one demonstrates the ability to tie his own shoes.

[santamargarita]

5. Only if we get off our assess and vote!

[Rozlee]

16. True that.

We got shellacked in 2010 because Democrat voters didn't bother going to the polls. History will repeat itself again in 2012 if we follow the same pattern. The rank-and-file Democrat has a habit of forgetting that there's anything beyond 4-year presidential election cycles.

[santamargarita]

23. How true...maybe we need our own wedge issue?

[Rozlee]

24. Steal pot legalization out from under the noses of libertarians. n/t

[quakerboy]

34. Not so much

We got "shellacked" in 2010 because Independents voted for Republicans.

We lost about 5% percent with Democrats not showing up to vote in 2010, though the percentage of the electorate claiming to be liberal stayed fairly steady. But what really hurt us was the so called independents and moderates not bothering to show up and vote, or flipping their votes. Independents went 51% for democrats in 2008, but only 37% for democrats in 2010.

[demwing]

38. That's misleading

Youths and minority turn out dropped a few points, but what really nailed us is that Independents broke for the Republicans, and elderly white voters increased turnout. We were overwhelmed and ill-prepared for the racial backlash.

[okaawhatever]

6. Keep reminding everyone of the 21 Billion it cost us. nt

[msongs]

7. a democratic party inc with any brains would have a field day with issues....

republicans want to take away your social security
republicans want to take away your health care
republicans want to deport you and your family (oops, can't use that one)
republicans want to take away your right to vote
republicans want to take away your right to choose
etc

[randr]

8. If the 18 to 30 crowd turns out to vote anywhere above 50%

the Democrats can not lose. The future is in their hands.
Along with a strong turnout from the women.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. Wow. Where did THAT come from?

Fingers-crossed

[former9thward]

11. The poll is eight months old.

And only polled less than 5% of the 435 districts.

[ybbor]

10. The poll was taken Oct. 2-4

That was a long time ago.

I hope it is relevant today, but what took so long getting it out to the public?

I had been very optimistic until Nate Silver's prediction last month. Perhaps he did not have this data to use, although he was speaking of the Senate and this is the House.

Just wondering.

[MrModerate]

15. Even Silver will tell you that his predictions are snapshots . . .

Usually based on 'if the election was held today.' Things can change -- and will, if we do our part.

[jwirr]

12. Does DU have a GOTV avatar?

[GoCubsGo]

13. I'm not surprised by that.

The MSM has been pushing the gloom-and-doom-for-Democrats meme. The problem is, most people don't get their information from the MSM any more. Or, their own reality says otherwise, and they aren't buying it.

I suspect that the latest Supreme Court campaign finance decision also has a hand in these results. People see the political leanings of the justices who voted in favor of it, as well as the politicians who are defending it. And, they know what will happen if those people take over the House, too.

[Doctor_J]

14. The party also needs a platform

Obama and Reid and Pelosi need to get on board with Sanders and Warren and Grayson.

[BrotherIvan]

25. Well, not just steal their talking points

Because we've already got that. Everyone gets real liberal around election time. Funny that.

[freebrew]

44. The party needs Howard Dean back.

We need his 50 state strategy. I didn't vote in the April election here. Why? There weren't ANY Democrats running for office in the primary here. Which will mean that Vicki Hartzler(Teabagger) will be back in the house, all of our idiot repub state legislators will be RWNJ controlled, and since this is Nixon's last term, we'll have a RWNJ governor again.

The Democratic party needs to get their act together. Seriously!

[Chemisse]

17. That would be some sweet justice.

[lillypaddle]

19. Kick! nt

[dicksmc3]

20. Good news!!!

Now everyone of you Dems get out to the polls come November and let's make this happen!!

[Android3.14]

21. It's like watching children become excited when they discover last year's Halloween candy

The data is seven months old.
The only positive thing about this poll is that it shows we might have a chance in the next seven months to turn things back around. You might as well base your gasoline budget on pump prices from last October.
God, why do so many progressives live in fricken' La-La Land?

[IronLionZion]

22. Get Out The VOTE!!! nt

[SummerSnow]

26. They lost their minds so they might as well lose the House too.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PEHa_B9DQxc/TQmEhiYzqkI/AAAAAAAAAC4/XxSB1EbsFug/s1600/tell+us+rush....jpg

[blkmusclmachine]

27. It won't happen UNLESS <<YOU>> get out and vote against the GOP this Nov. !!!

[Kablooie]

28. Only if Democrats break the mold and go out to vote.

You'd think getting our own side to help defeat insanity would be easy but it's harder than getting Republicans to turn on their own.

[4_TN_TITANS]

29. When an article states

"that the voting public is not gullible", I'm very suspicious. WTF happened in Congress from 1994 to 2006 ???

[fujiyama]

30. LOL, how is a poll from October considered "new"?

I know you didn't write that. C and L did. I don't know what their definition of "new" is. This may as well be a poll from 2012. It's well known that in politics that circumstances can change in an instant.

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but delusion isn't healthy. The gerrymandering alone is tough to get past. And then there's even more restrictive voter laws, on top of a sense of apathy and discontent among democratic constituencies. And this was before all the media hype over Obamacare (though it's recent successes have yet to be reflected in polls), and a million other things going on...none of which have really boosted the Democrats' chances in the fall.

In all honesty, I'd be thrilled if Dems can hold on to the Senate at this point. The House seems gone for at least two election cycles, though if Hillary has strong coattails in '16, then maybe we'll see a flip sooner.

[Cha]

31. Dems will always need an Awesome GOTV!! thanks for this, UC

[progressoid]

32. OLD POLL

[BlindTiresias]

33. Why is this recced so much?

It's very old

[saratunia]

37. Unlikely

Fact is Republicans are far more likely to take control of the Senate than Democrats to take the House.

[Trust Buster]

40. Very true. Due to Gerrymandering, the House is very unlikely.

[BumRushDaShow]

45. Even with Gerrymandering, there are at least 25 swing districts

where R's in those Districts were, as noted in many articles, supposedly willing to end the shutdown (knowing their margins were thin in those districts). Dems only need 17 of those. A couple of those Districts are right here in PA (e.g., 6th, 7th & 8th Congressional).

This one (6th) is especially being targeted - http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/06/gerlach-retirement-opens-up-swing-district-in-pennsylvania/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

So far there are 43 retirements that have been announced (24 R's & 19 Ds) and some pickups are definitely possible with a good GOTV effort -

http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/members/113/house/departures

[IronLionZion]

43. The very existence of the United States was unlikely at one point

we can do anything we put our mind to if enough of us show up to the polls. There are competitive districts out there, because of gerrymandering! GOP tried to remove dem districts by redistributing voters into other districts, which has put some of them in play.

Welcome to DU

[4dsc]

39. One of many issues democratic members could run on

and win. Republicans have given our party more than enough ammunition to win come November. IF only we have candidates who are not afraid to use them against republicans.

[toddwv]

42. This poll is from October 2013.

I'd love to see the GOP lose the House, but the poll is based on the after-effects of the Tea Party instigated government shutdown.

Unfortunately, the US populace has a short political memory for things like this and, while it may weigh in as a part of their overall ideology, it probably simply doesn't have the umpfh it once had.

[Hulk]

46. Oh, how I wish....but....

I wouldn't count on it. We aren't playing with characters that play by any ethical rules. These mf'ers have, and WILL do anything to win elections - right down to out in the open cheating. I'm not putting any faith in this post...none!

[Sunlei]

47. please vote. we can get rid of the R blight easy if people would please, vote!

[yodermon]

48. Sensible Woodchuck Democrats don't actually want to win midterms... no foil for 2016 if they win

congress.
#shallacking nod wink

[totodeinhere]

49. That is not a new poll.

The poll was commissioned by Moveon.org last fall and found that there are at least 17 seats that could be in jeopardy come November.

These are some of the latest polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/

[winter is coming]

50. Cue a flurry of contradictory polls in 3... 2... n/t

[onenote]

52. Seriously? A poll taken in the midst of the shutdown itself is a "new" poll?

I've heard of grasping at straws, but this is ridiculous.

[brooklynite]

53. Not worthwhile...this is a "generic" ballot matchup

Until you have candidate vs candidate numbers, it's not worth polling.

BTW - I've spoken to a number of (D) Candidates in this cycle, and almost none think that, nationwide, we're likely to take back the House.

[McCamy Taylor]

54. Our issue needs to be that 24 states have people dying for lack of Medicaid

If the House was in Democratic hands, those people would have health care now, because the House would have fixed it.

[tclambert]

55. I hope this is true and not just wishful thinking.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

56. Many of us--myself included--have always believed that Obamacare IS the issue that will help DEMS...

...but too many Dems are cowards and won't fight back.

Is Obamacare (ACA) perfect? Hell, no! I want single payer or at least a public option, damnit!

However, is it much better than what's now in place? Hell, yes!! And Democrats--of ALL stripes--need to get out there and sing it from the hillstops if we want to save this nation from the likes of Rand Paul and Susanah Martinez!!

[RainDog]

57. great news! n/t

[Socal31]

58. Brace yourselves for the incoming swarm.

Be vary suspicious of anyone who tries to suggest that November is a foregone conclusion, either way.

(Not suggesting OP is one of them)