The Washington Post with what I think and hope is a loony tunes prediction

[DFW]

Namely, that the Republicans have an 86% chance to pick up the Senate. 86%?? I hope Jeff Bezos has been taking too many halucinogens (or Chris Cillizza has). The Post says the Republicans get 52 seats.

To do this, they have to take Jon Tester's seat in Montana, oust Begich in Alaska, Pryor in Arkansas, and Landrieu in Louisiana. Plus, Grimes loses in Kentucky, and that Michelle Nunn loses in Georgia. At least they saw Peters winning in Michigan and Hagan holding on in North Carolina. But to get THAT much bad news out of MT, AK, AR, LA, KY, and GA, we'd have to have a pretty poor streak of weak GOTV. Either Bezos knows some inside stuff about the size of the Kochs' and Rove's dedicated petty cash, some knowledge of rigged counting, or he's whistling out his ass, thinking he has nothing to lose by being wrong, and will be elevated to major pundit if he's right.

Either way, for the Post to be publishing such stuff this early in the game, it sounds like Bezos is trying to influence a foregone conclusion at the very least. I, for one, would like to send a copy of this article to him the day after election day, asking if he would like the egg about to be plastered on his face to be raw, poached, or sunny side up. If he turns out to be right, on the other hand, we are one sorry country, indeed.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Good analysis, my dear DFW...

I hope you're right, not him.

[Dawson Leery]

2. Polls showing Democrats underperforming is quite common:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/upshot/how-to-read-the-polls-in-this-years-midterms.html?_r=0

"There’s always the possibility that the polls could miss the outcome in a close contest. Polls have missed the result in three close Senate races in the last two cycles. But this year is particularly challenging. The rapid growth of partisan polls has contaminated the polling averages in states where surveying public opinion is already difficult. Many of these partisan polls employ dubious weighting and sampling practices. The combination will make it even harder for polls to nail the result.

So far this year, 65 percent of polls in Senate battlegrounds have been sponsored or conducted by partisan organizations, and an additional 10 percent were conducted by Rasmussen, an ostensibly nonpartisan firm that leans conservative and has a poor record."

http://election.princeton.edu/2014/07/10/the-dog-that-didnt-bark-ar-sen/#more-10337

[FreakinDJ]

3. We are one sorry country indeed

Way too much "High five-ing going on here already

[Politicalboi]

4. We need to show the importance of voting in 2014

If the GOP takes the senate, they WILL impeach Obama. We need to put Obama's name on the 2014 election without it being there.

[CBHagman]

5. This is specifically an Election Lab/Monkey Cage prediction and here are some more details...

First, a link to the piece itself:

[url]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/15/new-election-lab-forecast-suggests-86-percent-chance-that-gop-wins-senate/[/url]

The authors of the piece added qualifiers, noting that it's a long way off till Election Day and trends can change course.

But who are the authors? What is the Monkey Cage and who contributes?

[url]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/about-the-monkey-cage/[/url]

You can bet I went back to see what John Sides' electoral vote prediction was in the 2012 presidential race (He was off by about 30).

[DFW]

6. I definitely DID feel like a poll with an agenda

Designed to make one audience feel good, and that audience isn't us. It's not impossible he's right, but Jim Dean didn't think so, and I take Jim's candid analysis before a Bezos-sponsored one.

[dsc]

7. Frankly I think we are more likely to lose Hagan than Pryor

Her only hope is that the legislature remains as unpopular as it has been. Her opponent is Tom Tillis who is currently speaker of the NC House. That might be enough for her to squeak by.

[blkmusclmachine]

8. Who knows what those super secret black box vote "tabulators" can do ...

[davidpdx]

9. I don't see them making that big of a sweep

Yes, we are going to lose some seats. We are defending so many it is inevitable that some (especially the open ones) are going to end up going Republican. On the other hand, I feel we have a good chance at ousting McConnell with Grimes on the ballot. Nunn looks like she's up in Georgia. These two races will depend on GOTV. If we win one of those I think the chances of them taking the Senate are low, both and I think it becomes near impossible.

[bornskeptic]

10. Tester's not up for re-electuon.

It's the seat that Baucus resigned from that's to be decided. There's an appointed Democratic replacement, John Walsh, who's running as an incumbent.

[DFW]

11. Mental lapse. You're right, of course. n/t

[ISUGRADIA]

12. WV

You forgot West Virginia, which is a likely Republican pickup.

Also Nunn has to win with 50% in November or there is a runoff that would be hard to win.