Could Clay Aiken have a chance to defeat Renee Ellmers?

[mnhtnbb]

Aiken is running in the Republican gerrymandered 2nd District in NC. The incumbent,
Renee Ellmers, is not well liked and has made some pretty dumb comments. Her most
recent was to attack Aiken as just an "entertainer" in the one and only debate
held this week. Even I wrote a LTTE pointing out that, gee, hadn't there been
a Hollywood actor--just an entertainer--who was a Republican idol as a politician?
I sent the letter yesterday--and this morning there is a letter to the same effect
from someone else published in the paper. Ellmers is an idiot.

Thought people might like to read the interview of Aiken by the local paper.
Could he have a chance? I hope so. If you have friends, relatives, in the
NC Congressional District #2, please encourage them to come out and vote for Aiken.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/07/4214915/clay-aiken-on-why-hes-running.html?sp=/99/108/

[bigdarryl]

1. Yeah what is up with that race anyway

[mnhtnbb]

2. Ellmers is leading in the polls--by about 8 points from what I've seen--

but I wonder whether Aiken could beat her if enough independents vote Dem--or stay home--
and don't vote for her.

The interview suggests he's not getting any support from the National Dems--probably because
they are putting resources elsewhere in closer races--but, who knows?

I wish someone would put together an ad on what he'd like to do for vets and run it in his district.

[Aristus]

3. Clay Aiken? A gay Democrat? In North Carolina?

I'm thinking...no...

I know North Carolina is supposed to be relatively progressive by the standards of the South. But I don't think that's going to spell a win for Clay Aiken.

[mnhtnbb]

4. Well, prior to the gerrymandering, there was a Dem representing the 2nd District

and it does have a 30% African-American population and the State NAACP has been
leaning pro marriage equality, in spite of some of the black churches supporting
the Amendment One several years ago that wrote the "marriage is between a man and woman"
into the State Constitution.

Very weird looking district.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina%27s_2nd_congressional_district#mediaviewer/File:North_Carolina_US_Congressional_District_2_%28since_2013%29.tif

It's not beyond the realm of possibility to my way of thinking. She's very unpopular.
Plus, Aiken survived a primary against two other candidates. Squeaked by, but, won
the nomination.

[Aristus]

5. I hadn't thought about the threat from conservative black churches in a while.

I think that decreases his already dim chances...

[mnhtnbb]

6. Except they're all so pissed--and rightfully so--with the State Repubs

passing extreme voting rights restrictions. It remains to be seen
whether African Americans will come out en masse as a protest.
Sunday early voting is extremely popular with them--the black churches-- and the Repubs
have eliminated one of the Sundays and are reducing early voting
sites as well.

[former9thward]

7. He seems to be running as a Republican...

http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/06/clay-aikens-ridiculous-new-campaign-sign/

[mnhtnbb]

8. Oh, my. Hadn't seen the sign. He's not running in my district.

[brooklynite]

9. In a word: "No"

Clay Aiken may be a nice guy with a modicum of fame and Ellmars may have said some dumb things, but every rating model has this as a "Solid Republican" district.

[blkmusclmachine]

10. ,

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