New FOX Poll has McConnell ahead in Kentucky - but WAIT!

[demwing]

Last edited Sat Oct 11, 2014, 07:00 PM - Edit history (1)

Read the fine print:

"Voters who were registered prior to 2013 yet had not voted in at least one of the last four statewide general elections were excluded from the sample. Respondents who indicated they were unlikely to vote in November were also excluded."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/08/fox-news-poll-gop-sen-mcconnell-narrowly-ahead-dem-grimes-in-kentucky/

That means no one who is a first time voter was polled. In fact --assuming everyone registers at the age of 18--no one under 20 years old was polled (potentially up to the age of 22 if that person failed to vote in 2012)!

BTW, according to the census from 2010, the 18-21 age group accounts for about 5% of the state's population

More Kentucky voter stats:

There are 1.67 million registered Dems in Kentucky, only 1.21 Million registered Republicans.

Grimes gathered 307,821 votes in the 2014 Dem primary
McConnell took in 213,753 votes in the 2014 Rep primary

402,524 Democrats turned out for the 2014 Senate primary
355,116 Republicans turned out for the 2014 Senate primary

If just the people that voted in the primary for Grimes or McConnell vote the same way in the GE, Grimes walks away with roughly 59% of the vote.

if all the people that voted in the Senate Primary turn out for the GE, Dems will take 53% of the turnout.

And...In case you were afraid Mitch McConnell might rig the vote with his monkey business, check out who is currently listed as the Commonwealth's Chair of the Board of Elections

http://elect.ky.gov/statistics/Pages/registrationstatistics.aspx

[Jackpine Radical]

1. …and an even higher percentage of the voting-age population.

" the 18-21 age group accounts for about 5% of the state's population"


I love it. The wingnuts are setting themselves up for it again. "Romney in a landslide!"

[sawdust]

2. must be the same pole

eric cantor danced on..

[demwing]

3. In case you'd like to donate to Grimes :)

https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/alg_website?refcode=general

[Historic NY]

4. Chair of Elections...BOOM..

[demwing]

10. Right?

I laughed, out loud

[lastlib]

11. Oh, yeah!!

Sorry, Turtle--no shenanigans gonna save your sorry ass!

[aka-chmeee]

5. Couple of days ago...

Fox released a poll giving Pat Roberts (R, VA) and Sam Brownback (Asshat, KS) comfortable leads in their races here in Kansas. Other polls have been running very bad for Roberts and closer but still behind for Brownintheshorts.

[marble falls]

6. Fox polls are entertaining as well as inaccurate.

[demwing]

7. "Inaccurate" is a very polite euphemism

for propaganda

[marble falls]

8. Fox is more misinformation than even propaganda. They arewillfully inaccirate.

[demwing]

9. I think the 2 terms are synonymous

but I also think we're essentially on the same page, so cheers!

[lastlib]

12. (kinda like their news broadcasts.....!)