My thoughts on the race so far

[Proud Liberal Dem]

With all of the mixed results polling out there and the relative freshness of the general election campaign between President Obama and Mitt Romney, it's pretty difficult to make out what the actual *state* of the race is, however, based on most of the state polling, President Obama seems to have an early edge over Romney, which most incumebents usually enjoy. The national polling seems to indicate a tighter race with President Obama and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck, though President Obama's approval rating seems to be hanging tight in the upper-40's low 50's, which indicates (so far) there is no deep overwhelming desire to dump him but that the continuing economic doldrums are probably keeping his approval rating at pretty much the same place- not getting worse but not getting a lot better (sort of like the economy right now).
As to why Romney, despite all of his lies and distortions, as well as his overall strange-ish personality, seems to be competitive, my take on it seems to be that most people (unlike us) are not fully plugged into the general election campaign yet and probably won't be until the national conventions this summer. People don't know a lot about Mitt Romney unless they lived in Massachusetts when he was Governor of that state and those that do know probably remember him as a moderate Republican, not a "severe conservative". Also, his past as a "businessman" (most people probably don't understand what "vulture capitalism" really is) makes people think that he might know *something* that President Obama doesn't about the economy and *might* be able to manage it better. His stated economic plan (which most people don't really know yet), of course, consists of Ryan's austere budget and essentially "Bush on steroids".
In summary, I would expect that the race will seem to remain tight (or appear to remain so) until the conventions and especially the debates begin. Once people really start paying attention to Romney's ideas and proposals and see him *perform* on stage next to President Obama, the less enamored of him the public will (hopefully) be and the polls will likely shift more decisively towards President Obama.

I welcome your thoughts and opinions.

[liberal N proud]

1. " it's pretty difficult to make out what the actual *state* of the race"

That is exactly where they want the voting public.

They want you and me to not be sure who is leading this race so that they can steal the election without it being too obvious.

These false polls are just tools they are using to firm up the base and convince the rest that it is OK when the place Romney in the White House.

[SoutherDem]

2. In many elections early polls are useless

They serve no one except the base, campaign and media.

I try to not even pay attention until September and not get concerned, or relieved until October. Often the leader in the spring doesn't win, each will get a boost after the conventions and there will be dozens of events which will nudge the election along the way. Oh, don't forget hundreds of campaign ads which will attempt to inform or mislead the electorate.

For me, although I love politics, almost wish I could go on vacation to an island without access to the news until the fall.