BRANDNEW Kentucky Bluegrass Poll:McTURTLE 44 vs.43 for Grimes

[bigdarryl]

Grimes support has dropped I'm not surprised since she went full rightwing her negatives are up also.This race is hers to loose and so far she's doing a good job of trying to loose with her inept campaign.All she has to do is run on the ACA.I think big dog(Bill Clinton) came in to campaign for her or is scheduled this week.This race is a dog fight to the end it will be all hands on deck on the ground. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/20/1337999/-KY-Sen-New-Bluegrass-Poll-Has-Grimes-D-Trailing-McConnell-R-By-1-Point

[JI7]

1. the race is NOT hers to lose, if these numbers are accurate it will come down to GOTV

[bigdarryl]

2. Yeah but she didn't help herself in that debate according to the poll

Kind of surprised at that the conventional wisdom was she did good in the debate.All so that immigration ad she cut is hideous

[demwing]

3. she lost support in some areas, but gained in others

Grimes and McConnell are now tied among men. Also, the last poll on RCP had her down by 8. Clearly, she is recovering from the media attack over her voting preference. If this holds it will truly come down to who gets out the vote.

[bigdarryl]

4. I wonder what's the African American breakdown is in this poll

[trublu992]

5. I would guess not as great as it could be because there was never in any

serious effort to GOTV because she can't risk the white " democrats" alienating her.

[bigdarryl]

6. I think with a race this close that African American vote is important

[demwing]

7. The DSCC just handed her $300k for GOTV

that's pretty serious

[Liberal_in_LA]

14. good

[demwing]

9. Of "Likely" voters = 92% White | 6% Black

http://media.kentucky.com/smedia/2014/10/20/13/46/W0KP6.So.79.pdf#storylink=relast

According to the census, the Black population of KY is about 8%

In the data you 'll also see that whites are basically divided between Grimes and MCConnell (45% to 42%, favoring McConnell) and Blacks are solidly weighted toward Grimes (60% to 22%).

22% of Black voters favor McConnell? WTF?

[Dawson Leery]

8. Grimes v. Nunn. Nunn has several advantages over Grimes.

Her greatest advantage are the large pools of AA voters who don't normally vote and large bases of Democratic voters in the urban areas.

Kentucky has neither.

[iandhr]

10. not hers to lose

Mitch has been around for 30 years and has unlimited money. the president is very unpopular in Kentucky a lot of rule white voters who don't like black people.

[dionysus]

15. rural?

[Ykcutnek]

11. Dead heat race after all the negative press is impressive.

Her strategy is working.

[a kennedy]

12. This is the race for me to really watch......nothing would give me the MOST satisfaction as the

turtle man being GONE come January. GOTV for sure.

[SmittynMo]

13. Grimes will win

Call it a gut feeling. And I personally do not believe polls. I just feel that McTurtle is done. Smart people in this country know what he has done to the US and his state in the past 6 years. And people don't really give a shit who she voted for in the last two elections. I read yesterday that they are pulling her ads in the final leg of her race. I think people already know who they are going to vote for, so pulling ads won't really matter. It's a matter of out with the old (and the bullshit) and in with the new. People are sick of obstructionism, lies and deception.

Unless the GOP really comes up with some hair raising story about her, I think she's in. And yes, I think it will be close. I really look forward to his concession speech.

[dionysus]

16. music to my ears.