DSCC's Guy Cecil breaks down the democrats chances in the Senate. Good stuff

[bigdarryl]

#t=200

[demwing]

1. The Doom and Gloomers - Here and in the Media

are wrong. Democrats will exceed expectations. This is not 2010. I'm predicting Dems end up with 50 or 51 seats (we have 45 safe seats).

I see the following hard fought-but-solid-Dem wins:

NC, NH, LA, GA. That gives us 49.

I also see the following possible Dem/IND wins (in diminishing order):

KS, IA, KY, AK. 1 of those 4 gives us 50. 2 secures the deal at 51. If we somehow take all 4 we hold at 53.

NOTES: If Orman wins, I think he'll sit with the Dems. His explanation of why he's running as an Independant (http://www.ormanforsenate.com/independence) reveals that he wants people who are "fiscally responsible and socially tolerant" to have a voice. In essence, he's a Blue Dog.

While I was initially convinced that CO would stay Dem in a squeaker, it seems to have slipped outside of our grasp.

50/51, and that's my story.

[brooklynite]

2. LA might be at risk because of the run-off...

...If Landrieu doesn't get 50% (currently there's a Libertarian getting 6%) there's a runoff in December and she polls behind the Republican.

[demwing]

3. Landrieu is an expert at winning run-offs

In a tight horse race, bet on the horse that best knows the track.