Keep the Senate...The "Big 5"

[BlueDemKev]

Last edited Tue Oct 28, 2014, 09:07 PM - Edit history (1)

Keeping the Senate this year will be difficult, but certainly not impossible. Even if we fall short, if we end up with 48 or 49 seats we will definitely win back the Senate in 2016 when we correct the 2010 midterm debacle. However, if we end up with only 45 or 46 seats, then we could be stuck with a Republican Senate for a long period of time.

I'm always someone who says go for the lowest-hanging fruit and then work your way up the branches. That said, this appears to be the landscape for 2014:

We know that Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota are gone. Arkansas and Alaska are probably out of our reach this cycle, but there's still a chance there. Louisiana is always difficult, but maybe Landrieu can pull off another squeaker.

This takes us to the "Big 5:"


NEW HAMPSHIRE (Jeanne Shaheen)

IOWA (Bruce Braley)

COLORADO (Mark Udall)

NORTH CAROLINA (Kay Hagan)

GEORGIA (Michelle Nunn)


If we win all five (5) of these states, we will have 50 seats in the next Senate (just enough for a majority, assuming that Angus King of Maine continues to caucus with Democrats). We need to focus the bulk of our resources on these five states and make sure that every single progressive-leaning voter gets out to vote next Tuesday.


BONUS STATES (These are states we could win in, although there chances are smaller):

Kentucky
Arkansas
Alaska
Louisiana

[Cal33]

1. I read earlier today that two of the largest newspapers in KY came out for Grimes. What

a pleasant surprise! That could be a big help there.

[Warpy]

2. If he had only remained a quietly corrupt man, achieving power through longevity

those two papers would likely have endorsed him. However, his reassurance that he would continue to run everything for the benefit for two out of state billionaires might just be what does him in at long last.

I hope he's defeated. In fact, I hope he's trounced, routed, humiliated. I will settle for mere defeat. I might even buy some sparkling cider to celebrate it with.

[Cal33]

3. Well, in one week we'll find out. I just hope that we Dems. will surprise everybody

with winning by a huge margin! It would serve the Repubs. notice that their greedy
days of selling out our nation for their own profit are soon coming to an end.

[Warpy]

4. It will certainly convince them that the billionaires are going to have to pay more

and watching those old bastards bankrupt themselves trying to keep the government bought is going to be satisfying, too.

[Blue_In_AK]

5. I believe you're wrong about Alaska.

Please check my recent posts. Begich is surging, and I think will retain his seat.

[BlueDemKev]

7. I've only seen one recent poll that has him ahead...

...and it appears to be an outlier. I do hope you're right, though.

[Blue_In_AK]

9. You're probably thinking of the Hellenthal poll from last week

that showed Begich up by 10 points, but a second poll done since then also shows him up by 7. I think the Native vote has been underestimated, and they are fired up and strongly pro-Begich.

Here are Ivan Moore's results copied from his Facebook page.



Poll results!!!
600 sample of registered voters, fielded Friday 24th - Sunday 26th. MOE +/- 4%.
There are two likely voter subgroups for this survey, one fairly loose (544 sample), and one tighter (330 sample). I'm giving results for both screens for transparency. Suffice to say, the 544 sample suggests a 90% turnout, which is highly unlikely, even this year... while the 330 suggests a 55% turnout, which is historically very close to reality. Also the age distribution of the 330 sample is exactly what you would see if you combined Alaska census data for age with average turnouts by age group. In other words, the 544 gives us good sample size in our view of the electorate, the 330 is the closer modeling of turnout on election day:
US SENATE:
544 sample: Begich (D) 48.3% Sullivan (R) 41.6% Other 6.5% Undecided 3.6%
330 sample: Begich (D) 50.1% Sullivan (R) 42.2% Other 5.3% Undecided 2.4%
US CONGRESS:
544 sample: Dunbar (D) 42.6% Young (R) 44.4% McDermott (L) 9.5% Undecided 3.5%
330 sample: Dunbar (D) 46.1% Young (R) 40.6% McDermott (L) 9.6% Undecided 3.7%
Not much of a difference in the Senate race between the two screens... Begich has a 6.7% lead in one, 7.9% in the other. The Congress race is interesting... Young up by 1.8% when you look at the wider population, but zero in on the people who are the highest probability to turn out and Dunbar has a lead of 5.5%. That's what happens when you really tick people off two weeks before an election.
You heard it here first.

[CityDem]

6. Colorado Looks Bad

Latest polls mostly show Udall losing Colorado -- recent poll shows Gardner with 51% Not looking good.

Hagan's lead in the polls is shrinking and seems to be trending in the wrong direction.

I am afraid we are going to be dealing with a Repub Senate and the only question is the number of seats.

[BlueDemKev]

8. As I said...

...we may very well lose the Senate. However, we need to win as many races as possible so winning back the Senate in 2016 will be a certainty. We need to end up with no less than 48 seats.

[quadrature]

10. the real big 4 ...

NH
NC
Iowa
Kansas

(USSenate Democrats do better by moving
down the list)

I put NC as being on the bubble

[BlueDemKev]

11. What bothers me...

...is I can understand losing in red states, but I cannot understand how states like Colorado and Iowa seem willing to send right-wing tea-party extremists to the Senate (for SIX-YEAR terms).

[quadrature]

13. easy explanations

Colorado ...
Udall is where he is because of his last name,
on top of that, he yells 'gun control' too much.

Iowa...
This state was always tricky.
Braley insulted his would-be constituents.

All politics is personal.
Send in clowns,
thats what you get.

[BlueDemKev]

14. I'd rather have clowns...

...than PIT VIPERS.

[tgards79]

12. New Polls in Alaska Favoring Begich

Changes the outlook considerably:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/10/election-2014-dashboard-one-week-to-go.html

[DFW]

15. South Dakota is also a long-shot for a nice surprise

It doesn't take a lot of votes there to change things.

I see the Senate as 50/50 to keep, but maybe I'm just an optimist.