The missing story of the 2014 election: a positive view

[mnhtnbb]

Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.

What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic.

Behold the Blue Wall:




The Blue Wall is block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. Tuesday that block finally extended to New Hampshire, meaning that at the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes without even trying. That’s 257 out of the 270 needed to win.

Arguably Virginia now sits behind that wall as well. Democrats won the Senate seat there without campaigning in a year when hardly anyone but Republicans showed up to vote and the GOP enjoyed its largest wave in modern history. Virginia would take that tally to 270. Again, that’s 270 out of 270.

http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/11/the-missing-story-of-the-2014-election/

[Stuart G]

1. k and r..nt

[postulater]

2. Good. Glad that's settled.

[Man from Pickens]

3. I wouldn't be so sure about Wisconsin anymore

Scott Walker is hardly a "blue-state Republican" and he won 3 bitterly contested elections in 4 years behind that "wall".

I think this map only applies if the GOP runs another idiot with no charisma. If they can actually produce a reasonably competitive candidate (Romney and McCain were both horribly flawed), a lot of those blue states will be more in play than you may think - PA, MI in particular.

Complacency led to the election disaster we just experienced. Take nothing for granted.

[mnhtnbb]

4. That's the point, though. Look at the stable of Republican candidates against

that map. They don't have anybody.

I'm not sure I'd include either Arizona or Georgia, either, as up for grabs. What is the chance of
either of them going blue? IMO, not nearly as good as the chance they go red.

Still, I thought it was nice to see a positive perspective looking forward. We have a tendency around
DU to be awfully negative.

[Man from Pickens]

5. That tendency to be negative

Might have something to do with actual election results from two weeks ago that look wildly different than this map.

Georgia - zero chance of going blue. Thinking it can is a sign of failure to realistically assess the situation.

Virginia should probably be blue now, there's your upside. Downside is that a number of those big blue states are more in play than this map would indicate.

I think we are only beginning to see the consequences of the manner in which ACA passed - 100% Democratic votes, not a single GOP vote. More than half of its customers unsatisfied, with key promises that were made (won't lose existing plan, can choose doctor, will save families $2500/year) having been deceptions. This combined with a lack of distinction in foreign policy, criminal justice, and financial crimes is wrecking the party brand.

In 2006 there were Republicans who had an optimistic outlook, considered that election to be an exception, one-off, so on and so forth. In 2008 they were annihilated at the polls again and Democrats walked away with the strongest governing majority in memory. They had a minor resurgence in 2010 and got slammed again in 2012. I see the potential for the same scenario but with parties reversed to play out.

[QuestionAlways]

10. The original post was done by a moderate Republican

He is to the right o HRC and third wayers, but he is not a crazy Tea-bag Republican,

[MFM008]

6. none of them have charisma

None...and what big blue state is going red in a presidential year? California? Illinois? The only one I see maybe Wisconsin, maybe.

[Man from Pickens]

7. more charisma than a trust fund baby and a raving lunatic?

not a difficult bar to reach - and the GOP has dozens of choices in 2016 as a result of their sweep in this election.

And the only person sitting on our bench is an odious reminder of all that is wrong with modern politics.

There are ugly portents unless substantial changes are made.

[Faux pas]

8. Kickin'

[FBaggins]

9. He sure seems confident in his ability to pedict the future two years from now...

... for someone who did such a poor job of predicting the 2-3 month future this year.

[Gothmog]

11. This was a great article

O'Donnell covered this article last night on The Last Word http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/dear-republican-uncle--re--2014-gop-victories-360070723849