2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum13 Republicans most likely to win the White House in 2016
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/225441-13-republicans-most-likely-to-win-the-white-houseI think Jonathan Easley had too much spiked egg nog yesterday. He says win the White House, not win the nomination. Of the faces I can recognize, only Jeb has a chance to steal the election.
Faux pas
(14,646 posts)PM Martin
(2,660 posts)Somehow they try to do it.
santamargarita
(3,170 posts)kairos12
(12,844 posts)underpants
(182,632 posts)Last edited Fri Nov 28, 2014, 03:33 PM - Edit history (1)
In normal circumstances there is a backlash against the sitting POTUS's party. Given the all hands on deck from Day 1 against Obama the backlash could be greater than is expected.
The backlash against W started in 2006 and continued - we all know the long list of the reasons. Think about how W, a complete media creation really, was even viable in 2000. Clinton's impeachment was not really a factor. He was more popular than ever and the good times were ROLLIN'. Gore didn't run that bad of a campaign, sure he wasn't exactly electric but even the Rove tricks (focus solely on a fixed game in Florida) shouldn't have made that much of a difference.
Also people are so fatigued of politics. This is no accident it is clearly a means of voter suppression. And THEY will get out and vote regardless.
We need to keep this in mind before we start counting electoral college votes. Just wanted to throw that out there.
Cartoonist
(7,311 posts)Nader was part of that backlash. More people still voted for Gore than Bush.
I regret the OP. I just thought it was ludicrous for some idiot to declare a GOP victory in 2016. I really don't want to talk about 2016 yet.
Gothmog
(144,951 posts)The other candidates are really not viable or have pissed off the GOP donor base. Rand Paul is an idiot and his daddy pissed off the GOP donor base to a major extent. Christie was never a national candidate. Even before bridgegate, I had my doubts that Christie's arrogance would play well in the Iowa or the South. Huckabee has a nice paying gig at Fox news and the rest of the list are not really viable.
I still see a possibility of Mitt Romney making a run if he thinks that he can beat Clinton.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Last edited Sat Nov 29, 2014, 08:57 AM - Edit history (2)
both have very serious problems. Clinton would make mincemeat out of sleazeball Walker. The country would vote for another Clinton before they would another Bush. And Romney is boring failed yesterday''s news, but he has tons of cash. Many in their southern and western base won't want him yet again, but he'd do well in the north and midwest. I can't wait to see Chris Christie and Ted Cruz chew each other up. This is gonna be fun. It will be a huge regional fight. You have Christie from the northeast who the South will hate on. Rand and Ted will do well in the South. Jeb has broad appeal. Walker is in the midwest. Romney and Christie are buddies, so it will be fun to see them duke it out. It really will be a lot of fun.
On the Dem side right now it looks like Hillary, Webb, and maybe Bernie. Warren IS NOT RUNNING. She has said so clearly and repeatedly. Martin O'Malley will likely run, and maybe Brian Schweitzer. Bernie is by no means definite. He knows he'd be a long shot, but he would like to influence the policy debate. I think the others would end up being good candidates for Veep. Biden won't run. He's too old and doesn't want to challenge Hillary. Hillary will be the heavy frontrunner and the most exciting candidate on EITHER side.
underpants
(182,632 posts)Unlike 2011-2 in which their primaries and debates were homogenized reading of the same talking points ( when Perry oops'ed several others read from their list to complete his thoughts) we will now have the establishment / Fox News panderers vs. Teabagger panderers. Also, unlike 2014 keeping the public eyes away from the fringe Bagger element will be next to impossible.
Cosmocat
(14,559 posts)this one will be the A list ...
unblock
(52,126 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)GOP prisoner for life. Such an apropos label for anyone still beholden to the Republican Party after the mess they've put this country and the American people through, don't you think?
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)The only one in that bunch that has a chance is Jeb. And he will be toast.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)His brother Dubya ended up blowing the Bush name's possible return for at least a generation after all his fuckups.
Portman is probably the least screwy of any of these baker's dozen of half-wit Goppers, and even he isn't exactly that good of a politico.....but if anyone, he's got the best shot, in 2020 if not 2016.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)Of course rubio and bush both can't and won't run. Put any one of these guys with Portman and the math for us gets harder.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)The daily show show have a field day with this round.
Kablooie
(18,613 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)The other 12 on that list are just plain idiots. Portman has already said he won't run.