2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSupposedly the last election was very bad news for GOP
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/20/1346224/-GOP-Columnist-The-VERY-Bad-News-FOR-THE-GOP-in-the-GOP-s-Midterm-Victory?detail=email-snip-
A GOP strategist, columnist at the Houston Chronicle who goes by the handle GOPLifer, Chris Ladd, has declared that the week of the Midterm Elections was a dark week for Republicans, and for everyone who wants to see America remain the worlds most vibrant, most powerful nation. What the HELL! Where was he?
In a careful analysis, Ladd builds a case: The Midterms of 2014 demonstrate the continuation of a 20 year old trend. Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level where the population is the largest utilizing a declining electoral base of waging, white, and rural voters. As a result no GOP candidate on the horizon has a chance at the White House in 2016 and the chance of holding the Senate beyond 2016 is vanishingly small.
-snip-
unblock
(52,181 posts)this is why they continue to amp up money in politics, the lies, and voter restrictions, the stealing, etc.
you know, their core competencies and their competitive advantages.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)go away while I'm alive to celebrate. nt
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)then all this stuff about demographics isn't relative. We have a larger voting block but they have made it harder to vote and half of use refuse to take part in our democracy. So that puts us where we are today.
From what I read on this board if there isn't a populist platform and Presidential candidate in 2016 we will stay home again.
I don't put stock in the rosy predictions for 2016.
Gothmog
(145,063 posts)Sunlei
(22,651 posts)and have the most horrible, ongoing animal abusers CORPS.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)Az,Mo,GA,WV,and NC should be called solid Red states.I am from Mo
In 2016 the only southern states Dems should bother with are battleground states of Florida and VA.They are only southern states
with Dem senators inless you include Manchen from WV.
In Mo it doesn't matter if i vote or not the gop will carry MO on presidential level.Even in great democratic year of 2008 Obama
couldn't take Mo.
If Scott Walker is republican presidential nominee Wi Is in Danger of flipping to GOP since he keeps winning it as governor.
Co,IA,Oh,Va,and Fl are the true battleground states.
Dont call me Shirley
(10,998 posts)Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Bagsgroove
(231 posts)I think Ladd's analysis is right, particularly his point that the base of the GOP is aging out, though Jon Stewart put it more succinctly -- "The Republicans are like the Beach Boys--their fans are dying off."
The bad news is that because of the gerrymandering of congressional districts following the GOP's huge win in 2010 it's possible that they will hold the House of Representatives for at least a decade. We may be in for a period of gridlock without end.
Man from Pickens
(1,713 posts)Anyone trying to spin the total wipeout that we experienced this year as something other than a strong victory for the GOP has their head in the sand. This outcome was simply brutal, worse than all but the most pessimistic (myself included, and I was very pessimistic) expected.
If you're putting your eggs in the demographics basket, you're going to be waiting an extremely long time for it to come to fruition. You may not see it in your lifetime, and there are many ways things could go wrong for that strategy between now and then. Not the least of which, by the time that time rolls around, who knows if we'll even recognize the Democratic Party? I've seen such a massive change in just the last 25 years or so, I'm not sure that I recognize it now (e.g. when did war and Wall Street become popular...?)
If you're putting your eggs in the "Blue Wall" basket, go ahead and count up how many of those states turned out GOP victories on the statewide level this year. Some of the bluest of the blue elected GOP governors, including rock-solid states like MD and IL.
That "Blue Wall" is an artifact of a series of extremely bad GOP candidates in the post-Reagan era - it is not something anyone should be predicating future strategy on. If the GOP ever nominates a candidate who is less than completely odious (granted, it's been quite a while), that "Blue Wall" will be shown to be little more than a bloc of New England states.
There is one winning strategy which does not simply depend on the opposition's failures - that is to identify the issues that really matter to the largest segments of the electorate, and position the party correctly and steadfastly on those issues.
Calista241
(5,586 posts)Sitting back and waiting for the wins to roll in is not a legit political strategy.
world wide wally
(21,739 posts)and actually fight to win elections. The campaign of 2014 scares me on that level. And stop saying that turnout was bad. It looked just fine for the Republicans.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)...................................................................................(But no we won't!)