2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs Ted Cruz Going To Win The GOP Nomination?
Ted Cruz, more than any of the other plausible Republican presidential candidates, really is in touch with the heart and soul of the Republican activist base. While Jeb Bush is milking the Establishment fat cats for millions and millions of dollars, Cruz has been developing an organic bond with the party's always-aggrieved base (and is getting decent fundraising results). When I've predicted he would be the nominee, all of my political friends have laughed at me. Did Bush scoop up $100 million this quarter? He needs that kind of money if he's going to have any shot to persuade Republican voters to get behind him. Cruz has already been doing that. He's their candidate and he's got the momentum right now-- as a new PPP poll showed yesterday. "His support," wrote PPP's Tom Jensen, "has increased from 5% to 16% in just over a month, enough to make him one of three candidates in the top tier of GOP contenders, along with Scott Walker and Jeb Bush."
Cruz has really caught fire with voters identifying themselves as 'very conservative' since his announcement. After polling at only 11% with them a month ago, he now leads the GOP field with 33% to 25% for Walker and 12% for Carson with no one else in double digits. Last month Walker led with that group and almost all of the decline in his overall support over the last month has come within it as those folks have moved toward Cruz. Cruz's name recognition with Republican voters has increased from 61% to 82% since his announcement.
Two candidates are clearly losing ground. The biggest is Ben Carson, who's dropped from 18% to his new 10% standing. There's a lot of overlap between the voters who like Carson and the voters who like Cruz and where previously they'd been naming Carson as their first choice the momentum for Cruz lately seems to have really cut into Carson's support. The other potential candidate who seems to be losing some steam is Mike Huckabee. A month ago he was at 10%, but now his standing has declined to 6%.
Cruz will say anything to appeal to the inner demons of the psychologically fragile right-wing base; accuracy and truth don't get in his way. Yesterday David Horsey in the L.A. Times dubbed him "Sarah Palin with a high IQ." "His views," Horsey wrote, "place him in the same camp as all of those throughout U.S. history who have resisted federal authority-- including slave owners, Confederate politicians, rapacious industrialists and die-hard segregationists. Because most Americans are not keen on going back to the 18th century, chances are reasonably good that Cruz will be no more successful in national politics than Palin has been. Still, he could be a much more formidable voice in the presidential race. Cruz can articulate a complex argument for his point of view."
For those motivated by unfocused hatred towards "liberals"-- and focused hatred towards Obama-- no one is going to be a better candidate than Cruz. He's one of them-- or at least adept at seeming to be one of them. His primary strategy is impeccable-- which has Democrats hoping it works well enough to win him the nomination in time for a Goldwateresque debacle... and as many as 10 less GOP Senate seats and dozens of non-Confederate House seats. This week he led the Republican 2016 field into an untenable extremist defense of Mike Pence's bigoted and very unpopular any-gay legislation. He's gone so far as to start attacking business leaders over the issue.
Read more: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2015/04/is-ted-cruz-going-to-win-gop-nomination.html
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Old and In the Way
(37,540 posts)If enough dumb bunnies vote for him....terrific!
DreamGypsy
(2,252 posts)(see "step 2"):
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)It's 18 months until the 2016 election. And as we all know, the clown car always has more room.
But I like the idea that Cruz might be the head clown.
So... Nevermind.
Suich
(10,642 posts)imho, the fight is going to be between Jeb Bush, who will have a boatload of $$$, and Scott Walker, who is backed by the Koch's.
Should be interesting, to put it mildly!
NYC_SKP
(68,644 posts)I'm of the mind that when you stick to your principles you win, and when you give in to pressure and "settle", you lose.
If we can draft someone with the passion of Warren, we will win in a landslide.
If HRC runs against Cruz and we end up with President Cruz, well that's going to really suck.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Eugene Debs.
ETA: And,
If we end up with a President Cruz, it'll really suck, regardless of who the Democratic nominee was.
bvf
(6,604 posts)His only function in this game is to make the eventual nominee look sane in comparison. He's this election cycle's Herman Cain.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)We all know that Rand Paul is this cycle's Ron Paul and Santorum is likely to be this cycle's Santorum...
tavernier
(12,377 posts)The Bushes know where ALL skeletons in that party are buried, and they know how to use that power. If Jeb wants the nom, he's got it.
MurrayDelph
(5,293 posts)but I ain't stepping on any butterflies.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)Sunlei
(22,651 posts)number rankings within a month. expensive game.
IMO a total squandering of millions except for the local economic boosts from travel, clothing, paychecks for all the Aids and servants.
Wonder why republicans never care to leave a lasting impression from good deeds, like teach for a decade or community service of some type? build a hospital or provide free lunch for a year for a couple schools. Something they can point to with pride.
jmowreader
(50,553 posts)Right now there are at least thirty Republicans who will probably run for president.
Cruz's first and largest problem is he declared first - which means the other 29 contenders are merrily looking at the skeletons in Ted's closet, of which he has enough to start his own medical school.
His second and nearly-as-large problem is, he scares the living shit out of the money men. The extremely rich do not want an income tax system that lets you file on a postcard - it'll make their taxes go up.
The GOP ticket with the best chance is an Old School 'puke like Rick Perry or Jeb Bush as the standard-bearer coupled with a teabagger-friendly youngster who doesn't mind playing second fiddle, like Idaho congressman Raul Labrador.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)secretly hoping the loonies pull it off. Independents usually make up the win/loss of a candidate, because they are not a proponent of either party, so he'll either have to veer a tad Left to get some of them, or gamble further Right on GOTV by even more loonies.
A couple of great quotes:
"Cruz will say anything to appeal to the inner demons of the psychologically fragile right-wing base; accuracy and truth don't get in his way. Yesterday David Horsey in the L.A. Times dubbed him "Sarah Palin with a high IQ."
and Poster #16
"Cruz's first and largest problem is he declared first - which means the other 29 contenders are merrily looking at the skeletons in Ted's closet, of which he has enough to start his own medical school."
shebolleth
(38 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)But he wont be running against Romney. He'll be up against Bush, which means he's up against the BFEE.
Stay away from small airplanes Cruz.