Where’s the Real Electoral College Battleground for 2016?

[TexasTowelie]

Since Barack Obama’s win in 2008, phrases like “Demographic Destiny” and “blue wall” have become part of the justification for Democrats slight edge in winning the White House in 2016. Demographic destiny, of course, refers to Democrats’ success in winning over the fast-growing minority population, as well as women and the millennial generation, while the “blue wall” refers to the 242 electoral votes every Democratic nominee has won since 1992. Obama’s win in states like Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina in 2008 upended the conventional wisdom about the path to 270 for the Democratic nominee. Can the GOP forge its own new path to success in 2016, specifically by winning in the Midwest?

Over the last 40 years the Electoral College map has undergone a remarkable amount of change, yet today it looks pretty stable. Since 1992, every Democrat running for President has carried the same 19 states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. New Mexico has gone to Democrats in every election but one (2004). Add those states together and you get 247 electoral votes. Of those 20 states, Obama carried 16 of them – for a total of 191 Electoral Votes - by 10 points or more. The only states in this “blue wall” that Obama carried by less than 10 points were Michigan (O+9), Minnesota (O+8) Pennsylvania (O+5), and Wisconsin (O+7).

Republicans, meanwhile, have won the same 13 states since 1992: Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina. Another 10 have also been pretty firmly planted in the GOP column since 2000: Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee, West Virginia, Georgia, Arizona and Kentucky. Add those together and you get 191 Electoral Votes. Romney carried all but 2 of these 23 states by 10 points or more in 2012. He won Arizona by 9 points and Georgia by 8 points.

So, if you add the states that Obama carried by less than 10 to the states carried by Romney by less than ten, you end up with 83 electoral votes. Add that to the eight true toss-up states – Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Florida (which equal another 100 Electoral Votes) – and your map looks like this:



Read more: http://cookpolitical.com/story/8322

[Gothmog]

1. The electoral college math should favor the Democrats

[fizzgig]

2. i'm both interested and apprehensive on where colorado will fall next year

went for w both times but then went for obama both times. we also voted out a pretty liberal senator in favor of a bagger last year and we have a less liberal senator up for re-election next year. dems held both chambers of the legislature for a couple of sessions, but lost the senate last year after ten years of dem control.

our politics are as unpredictable as our weather.

[gotj90]

3. The electoral map is in our favor. No doubt.

I understand why PA is still listed as undecided but I have a hard time seeing it go red in the foreseeable future. I feel the same about Virginia and Michigan to a lesser extent. Then you have the fast growing Latino population in Texas. It's still solid red but for how much longer? The map is not pretty for Republicans.

Now. If we could just un-gerrymander the House districts...

[TexasTowelie]

4. Welcome to DU.

I'm hoping that the people in Texas will finally come to their senses and realize that the GOP does not represent them. The 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections will be important. 2016 is important because whomever takes that race will most likely be reelected barring a major calamity. The 2020 election is important because that will decide the seats in the state legislatures that have the power to draw up the congressional districts that you mentioned.

Once again, welcome to DU and surf around. I suggest going to the Latest Threads tab and under the headers are some black bars. I suggest changing the first drop-down menu next to "Show" to show "All (default)".

[gotj90]

6. Thanks!

Nice cat pictures

[TexasTowelie]

7. Thanks. The calico on the left is named AC and she will turn four later this month.

Unfortunately I had some issues and for the time being she is staying with my sister in Houston. The one on the right is generic stock photo that I used as my first avatar. I'm still waiting for Perry to either withdraw from the primaries or get tossed in jail so I can change my avatar.

The best avatar jokes concern El Supremo in the Sports Group since he changes them whenever his team falls by the wayside.

[Persondem]

5. This analysis, while good, seems pessimistic to me

MN, MI, NH and PA are all solid lean blue states. VA is trending blue, and NH should be blue as well. GA and AZ I would give to the R's for 2016. GA may flip at some point but not next year.
I am pretty sure I have seen other analysts put about 240 electoral votes safely in the blue column ... not that anyone is taking anything for granted ... (knock wood 100 times)