Nate Silver - Clinton has a 50-50 chance to win the general election.

[totodeinhere]

One talking point being used by Clinton supporters is the inevitability meme. But then here comes Nat Silver with his analysis that Clinton has a 50-50 chance to win the general election. Now that's far from saying she can't win but it certainly does not validate the idea that she is inevitable.

The truth is that a general election win by Clinton — she’s very likely to become the Democratic nominee — is roughly a 50/50 proposition. And we’re not likely to learn a lot over the rest of 2015 to change that.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/

Some people may well come along to attack Nate Silver because they do not like what he is saying. But isn't this at least enough to cause some pause with people who advocate a Clinton nomination because she is a shoe-in to win the general?

As far as I'm concerned this is another reason why we need a competitive primary contest, not a coronation. If Senator Warren will not run then we need to find at least one other major progressive candidate to take on Clinton in the primaries. Who that will be I don't know but we really do need to find someone.

[BlueCaliDem]

1. In other news...water is wet.

[hrmjustin]

2. I hope no one paid him too much money for that insightful analysis.

[onehandle]

3. Reads like (Democratic Candidate X) has a 50-50 chance to win the general election.

And Nate pretty much says Hillary has the nomination:

When you look at the board, there is no Barack Obama waiting in the wings. Warren has endorsed Clinton and has given every indication that she is not going to run.

At this point, Clinton’s path to the nomination looks easier than anything we’ve seen before.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hillary-clinton-steamroller-rumbles-to-life

[Politicalboi]

4. They don't know her VP pick

There's so many months to go. Jeb Bush may have a heart attack tomorrow and die. Then who's their front runner? If Perry gets convicted along with Crisco, and Walker, who they gonna run? Nate Silver may as well be predicting the election of 2024.

And most if not all the GOP candidates don't like the Cuba deal, while most Cubans do. They may be throwing away their support in Fla. A lot is left to come for these assholes to go against the grain of the American people. Just give them some more rope, we have 18 months to go.

[winter is coming]

17. Has the VP pick ever made a positive difference?

I can think of instances where it probably hurt the Presidential candidate (Palin and Lieberman come immediately to mind), but has it ever helped?

[former9thward]

19. 1960

Having LBJ on the ticket allowed JFK to take TX in a very close vote. Without TX JFK loses.

[Agnosticsherbet]

5. A coin toss is probably a good bet this early in the process.

Hillary blows the doors off the Republican Clown Car, but I don't know what that really means before nine months before the first primary.

[Thor_MN]

6. Nate Silver had Duke at 16%, Wisconsin at 15% of being in the Final.

If one went with his picks, the final would have been Kentucky v. Villanova.

My brother based his picks on Nate Silver, I didn't and had Wisconsin playing Duke.

[FBaggins]

9. So he understands politics better than sports

Who knew?

[Thor_MN]

12. Maybe.

[FBaggins]

13. I suspect that there was a reason...

... that you didn't site his embarrassing political prognostication record... no?

[Thor_MN]

16. Does any one really care what he thinks at this point?

I know that I don't much care what you may or may not suspect.

[msongs]

7. everything is 50-50: it will happen or it won't happen. no big news here nt

[sdfernando]

8. Reminds me of a question asked in one of my math classes

There is a drawer full of socks. 25 white and 5 black. You are blindfolded and pull out 1 sock. What are the chances that it will be a black sock?

[FBaggins]

10. It won't give them pause if no other Democrat is close to 50/50

Does he say anything about alternatives?

[blkmusclmachine]

11. Close enough to steal. Which shows how terrible Clinton is against the dangerous GOP Theocrats.

[Fearless]

14. Only in the off chance she actually survived a primary.

[winter is coming]

18. +1. Clinton is her own worst enemy.

And if she gets a challenger who uses populist rhetoric without sounding vague and scripted, she'll be in deep trouble.

[Persondem]

15. Nate seems to be hedging his bets ... as he should at this early stage

I did notice this line ....

"Her political positions are essentially those of a “generic Democrat.” She’s neither a true centrist, nor extremely far to the left ..."

So we have it straight from Nate all you Hillary Haters .... she is a moderate democrat (duh!), not the anti-Christ of democratic politics.

[Downtown Hound]

20. Normally I would agree except for one thing...

The field of Republicans running against her is very, very weak. Cruz appeals only to the fringe right, Jeb has too much W. baggage, Walker is despised even in his own state, and Paul can't help but appear crazy at all the wrong times.

Against a strong Republican I would be worried about her chances. This crop they're running ain't that. My bet is Hillary wins and wins big. Plus, the demographic trends are all in her favor. She will sweep the female, Latino, and African-American vote. And even though a majority of white men will go Repuke, she'll get enough of them to win.

[Persondem]

21. All true. Also, I would think that with her on the ballot, the racists might stay home

nt

[MillennialDem]

22. Come on Nate, that makes no mathematical sense.

You can't really put a probability on a one time, untested event

this far out
with relatively limited polling

Saying Hillary Clinton has a 50% chance of winning means that if we picked 10% of the population at random and had them vote..... and did it again.. and again..... and again Hillary's victories would approach 50% of the time.

[Darb]

23. I think he lacks significant data so 50-50 is obvious.

Why would you do exactly as you profess "some people" will do to Nate Silver. You say they will attack him but it is you who is attacking them by saying their "inevitability" idea is bogus (Even though that "inevitability" thing is only in your minds).

So far there is only one candidate that has thrown their hat into the ring. Don't you think that you should wait until someone else decides to run? Are you going to run? Why not?

And one more thing:

ELIZABETH WARREN IS NOT RUNNING!!!!