Jeb Bush Has The Cash, But Not The GOP Support
12:02 PMApr 28, 2015 By Nate Silver and Harry Enten
Jeb Bush is expected to declare a fundraising total in the “high tens of millions of dollars,” The New York Times reported on Monday. Any talk of record fundraising totals ought to account for inflation — as well as the fact that it’s easier to raise big dollars since the Citizens United decision (most of the contributions to Bush will go to his Super PAC). Nonetheless, Bush’s haul should be an impressive figure.
But money is unlikely to be Bush’s problem in this campaign, and cash may be a less valuable resource than another sort of currency in which he is lacking: the support of influential Republicans, like current senators and governors, especially those who publicly endorse a candidate. Historically, these endorsements have been the best proxy for support in the “invisible primary” and a leading indicator for which candidates may emerge victorious through the rough-and-tumble nomination race.
So far, Bush has won very few endorsements. No current Republican senators or governors have endorsed him, and only five members of the House of Representatives have done so, all from his home state of Florida.
Fortunately for Bush, none of his rivals are doing much better. Rand Paul, with seven endorsements from the House along one from a senator — his Kentucky colleague, Mitch McConnell — is nominally the endorsement leader.1. But the overwhelming majority of Republican officials have stayed on the sidelines, at least publicly.
Isn’t it a little early to worry about the endorsement count? We’re still 265 days away from the projected date of the Iowa Caucus, Jan. 18, 2016.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-has-the-cash-but-not-the-gop-support/
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