Rachel Maddow Sums Up GOP's 2016 Predicament In a Single Sentence

[Cali_Democrat]

“Jade Helm 15” is a planned military exercise slated to take place across the Southwest this summer, orchestrated by the Pentagon.

But to conspiracy theorists on the far right, it’s the planned takeover of Texas by the federal government. Walmart’s even involved, or so the paranoid fantasy goes, closing five of its stores to use as food-distribution centers and house invaders from China. Oh, and each of these Walmarts is also connected to one another by secret underground tunnels (Matthew Yglesias at Vox has a full explanation of the Jade Helm 15 Conspiracy.)

<...>

“This is one of those issues that is hilarious to the real world but is totally serious business in Republican world,” Maddow said on her show Wednesday night.

<...>


“To most Republican politicians, particularly those competing for the Republican presidential nomination, where only Republican base voters will decide who’s allowed to run, if you have a choice between seeming insane to normal people and seeming righteous to the base, which are you going to pick?” Maddow said.

“There’s an incentive to pick seeming righteous to the base even if it is seeming nutty to everybody else,” she added.

And that, folks, is the GOP’s 2016 problem.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/07/rachel-maddow-jade-helm-15_n_7228528.html

[Iliyah]

1. Their insanity and paranoia makes them dangerous.

Huckster with other religious fanatics have in your face said that if USSC approves of the United States of America's "gay marriage" issue, they are calling for a revolution with their Gawd's blessing.

They are some hateful assholes.

[BrotherIvan]

2. Yes, that is the problem

A Republican who can make it through their primaries CANNOT WIN in the general. Independents will not vote for him. That's why we can vote for whom we think is the best candidate and not fear that a homophobic, misogynistic, racist, science denying Bible-thumper can win. Democrats shouldn't fall for the bullshit!

[Cosmocat]

15. Eh ...

History really does not support that.

The last four republican nominees have been Bush II, Bush II, McCain and Romney, in each case the most moderate (as packaged) candidate. Bush II ran as the "compassionate conservative." Utter bullshit to sneak the smarmy shit into office, but that was how they ran him. McCain was the lesser of the idiots in 08, Romney in 12.

The same dynamic is and will continue to occur in this election, as in 08 and 12 - there were/are now going to be over a half dozen wing nuts out stupiding themselves that manage to suck the maximum stupid votes into littler piles for each of them, leaving the more "moderate" (in tone) candidate to muck out the nomination.

Don't get me wrong, we both know they will raging assholes. But, what I am saying is whoever gets the nomination is most likely going to have a minimal amount of off the wall stupidity from the primary to throw at them.

FURTHER.

We will see what we have seen increasingly since the 90s once it is a two horse race.

The media WILL negatively frame the democrat - as it did with Gore, Dean, Kerry and Obama (lest we forget how a fucking FLAG PIN was the defining issue for selecting a president) while doing back flips portraying the republican in in whatever positive way they are packaged - see Bush II, a complete moron who was framed as the "guy you would like to have a beer with!"

If you think Independants won't vote for Jeb or Walker you are ignoring how fin stupid this country is. Walker has wins repeatedly in a state that tends to elect progressives. Even after proving to be a complete asshole. We elected Bush II TWICE, nuff said.

[SunSeeker]

18. Yup. And Bush II proves you don't even need the most votes, you just need to be close.

That is why GOTV is crucial. We can’t let it get close enough for GOP election stealing.

[Jim Lane]

20. The wingnuts are determined to prove you wrong.

I think they have mixed feelings about Shrub, but about McCain and Romney there can be no doubt. Twice in a row there have been hard-core conservatives in the race. Twice in a row the GOP establishment has nevertheless supported the least conservative of the serious candidates. (I'm discounting Huntsman, who was fringe, and without him, Romney was indeed the least conservative.) Twice in a row the GOP establishment has told the conservative base that they must support the moderate because the moderate is more electable. Twice in a row the GOP establishment has prevailed and nominated the moderate. Twice in a row the moderate has nevertheless lost (to a Muslim socialist from Kenya, no less).

This time around, the wingnuts will fight hard for a movement conservative. After two consecutive failures, the Republican Party establishment may have trouble getting anywhere with that "electability" argument. The wingnuts honestly believe that millions of voters are just waiting for the chance to support a true conservative, and that Ted Cruz would get 55% of the vote. Also, it seems that the Koch brothers are prepared to get involved in the GOP primary more than they have in the past, and they apparently aren't fond of Jeb.

[Cosmocat]

21. Read my post

You are missing the point.

The establishment did not "tell" the lunatics who to vote for.

The lunatics HAD TOO MANY OPTIONS.

The same thing thing is occurring this go around.

If there were two or three, maybe, idiots on steriods to vote for, the chances that one would make it would be greater.

But, just like the 08 and 12, there is a baskin robbins of idiots on steroids, too many choices to thin their support out.

So, the likelyhood will be the same, that one idiot on steroids has the most support in Iowa, one idiot on steroids has the most support in South Carolina, etc. while the "moderate" candidate wins a few and manages to be second or third in the rest.

Yes, it COULD happen, but the same dynamics are in place this time as the last two times.

[Jim Lane]

23. I did read it. I'm just pointing out the counterargument.

You wrote: "The same dynamic is and will continue to occur in this election, as in 08 and 12...." I largely agree with your analysis of what happened the previous cycles. My point is that many of the wingnuts agree with it, too. I look in at Free Republic now and then, and posters there often talk about uniting behind a true conservative and not letting someone like Jeb win the nomination over a divided right.

Of course, talk on an internet message board doesn't necessarily affect what happens in the real world. Perhaps, after Jeb loses to the Democrat, the wingnuts will be fruitlessly moaning about how this has now happened three times in a row and "we must prevent it in 2020."

Another factor in assessing whether the same dynamics are in place this time is the Republican primary voters who have mixed emotions: They aren't full-on wingnuts but they aren't completely happy with the "moderate" candidate but they want to win in November. I'm speculating that these swing voters will be less receptive to the GOP establishment's talk about electability, given that the supposedly more electable candidates have nevertheless been losing. For that and other reasons, Jeb may not do as well as McCain and Romney did.

[Cosmocat]

24. iowa right now, walker is leading.

He is second to jeb as the "establishment" cnadidate.

The wingers were balling about "true conservative" in 08 & 12, too.

They can talk about uniting behind one candidate, but it is state by state primary.

Cruz probably will be the flavor in south carolina, but iowa or new hampshire wont dig him.

[SunSeeker]

3. Sadly, they don't have the same predicament at the local level.

That is why they have taken over state houses and are wreaking havoc.

[freshwest]

14. +1

[Cosmocat]

16. People are just flat deluding themselves

to think this kind of stuff.

What we have seen over the last 20 years in no way supports any kind of republicans in trouble meme.

[kairos12]

4. Walmart is out of tin foil.

[Cha]

5. Just like in 2012.. only they're more insane. Mahalo Cali!

[Iliyah]

6. 2014 insane over the top!

[nikto]

7. It's sad that GOP delirium distracts from the real issues

But maybe that's the intent, huh?

[Gumboot]

10. That IS the intent, without doubt.

The GOP's 4-step mantra works every time:

1) Distract

2) Divide

3) Defeat

4) Repeat

[Cosmocat]

22. YEP

and it has become more bold faced and mean spirited over time, and just as if not more effective.

[LiberalArkie]

8. Please God, don't let the election be between 2 people who started politics in Arkansas.

[Thinkingabout]

12. Thought you may have been talking about Bill and Mike but Bill has already served two terms.

Maybe you was thinking this may get changed, good thought to get Bill a couple more terms.

[dgibby]

9. All kidding aside,

what worries me the most is that one of these lunatics will actually act on their delusions and hurt some of our service members.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

11. This is what happens when you mix beer with meth.

[Thinkingabout]

13. This is as dumb as the FEMA camps. Just another way to waste money in Texas.

Abbot should be anxious to accept Medicaid expansion

[craigmatic]

17. Maddow is wrong. That would've been true 4 years ago but now they're thirsty for power.

That's why there's so many repubs running. They'll tone down the crazy before the election. I doubt they keep the crazy up before the primaries.

[bvar22]

19. There is only one way to deal with this treason!

We must immediately Blow Up all the WalMarts.