2016 US Senate Election-Democratic Firewall

[NPolitics1979]

37)HI-Schatz-D
38)VT-Leahy-D
39)NY-Schumer-D
40)MD-OPEN-D(Edwards-D or Van Hollen-D)
41)OR-Wyden-D
42)CT-Blumenthal-D
43)WA-Murray-D
44)CA-OPEN-D(Harris-D)
45)WI-Johnson-R(Feingold-D)
46)CO-Bennet-D
47)IL-Kirk-R(Duckworth-D)
48)NV-OPEN-D(Cortez Masto-D)
48/49)FL-OPEN-R(Murphy-D)
49/50)OH-Portman-R(Strickland-D)
50/51)PA-Toomey-R(Sestak-D)

[No Vested Interest]

1. 49 & 50 are very iffy wins for Dems.

Sestak & Strickland have a better chance if their states go Dem., i.e., if the Dem. turnout is large.

[NPolitics1979]

2. 2016 US Senate Election- Democratic firewall.

Suppose Sandoval-R runs in NV,Coffman-R runs in CO,and Hassan-D does not run in NH.
Democrats will win CO but lose NV and NH.
Democrats will win HI,VT,NY,OR,CT,MD,WA,CA,WI,IL,FL,and CO- 48 seats.
Democrats need to win OH and PA or IN

[No Vested Interest]

3. Who is the likely Dem candidate in NH?

I believe the right Dem. in NH has at least as good a chance of winning as Toomey being defeated by Sestak, or Portman being defeated by Strickland, unless the Presidential election is a Dem. blowout, which I am not expecting at tis time.

Don't get me wrong, I'm voting for Dem. nominee for President and Dem for Ohio Senator, and hope Dems win both WH and the Senate, but have lived too long to get all starry-eyed re prospects.

[NPolitics1979]

4. The likely Democratic candidate in NH is either Hassan or Kuster.

According to Sabato- Democrats guide to a majority is win all 10 of the Democratic held US Senate seats up for grabs in 2016 including Tossup Races in CO and NV, Win Highly vulnerable Republican held seats in WI,IL,FL plus NH and the White House.
Democrats will win CO(Bennet-D narrowly defeats Tipton,Stapleton,or the Coffmans-R) and NV(assuming Sandoval-R does not run-Cortez Masto-D will be the next US Señator from NV)
WI(Feingold-D defeats Johnson-R by the same percent margin Feingold-D lost to Johnson-R by in 2010)
IL(Duckworth-D defeats Kirk-R by a single digit margin)
FL(Murphy-D wins the Democratic primary and the General Election by a narrow margin)
Democrats will need to win NH- if Hassan runs.
Without NV and NH, Democrats will need to win OH and PA or IN(The Republican nominee makes the same mistakes as Mourdock did in 2012) and AZ- McCain loses in the Republican primary to a tea partier who then loses in the general election to Sinema,Kirkpatrick,DuVal or Carmona.

[No Vested Interest]

5. Thanks for the update. nt