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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum4 Reasons Why a Biden Run Would Help Sanders
The politerati are getting a slight break from Trumpalooza these days, thanks to the Biden Bump. The veep has been actively discussing a possible presidential run with Democratic donors and strategists as he moves toward a final decision, and political handicappers have upped the odds that Biden, still coping with the recent death of his 46-year-old son Beau, will enter the fray. This has led to a torrent of speculation about what Biden will do and what a last-minute leap might mean for the 2016 race. Could it hurt the once-inevitable-but-now-email-burdened Hillary Clinton by providing Nervous-Nellie Democrats with an alternative? Could it help Clinton by offering her a more establishment-oriented sparring partner to vanquishwhich would yield a positive narrative for her campaign?
The other day, Sen. Bernie Sanders, the independent seeking the Democratic nomination who has drawn thousands to rallies and boomed in recent polls, was asked how a Biden bid would affect the contest. He characteristically pooh-poohed the question. "Politics is not a soap opera," he said. "What impact it will have on the race I honestly dont know. I mean, I wish I could tell you but I dont. Will it help or hurt me? Will it help or hurt Hillary Clinton? I just dont know."
Yet there are several reasons why a Biden run would be good for Sanders.
* Slicing up the pie. The most obvious benefit is a matter of basic math: If Biden is in the hunt, the establishment Democratic vote will be split. That means an outsider will need a lower percentage of the vote to win. If the race is essentially Clinton versus Sanders (assuming for now that Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chaffee don't escape from low-single-digit territory), the winner of a primary contest will have to bag close to 50 percent of the vote. Put in a competitive third candidateand there's no telling how strong a candidate Biden will beand the number drops. Within the Sanders camp, his strategists assume that the progressive populist wing of the Democratic electorate that already supports or could potentially support Sanders is about 35 percent. That number is undoubtedly closer to the percentage needed for a win in a contest with Biden than in one without him.
MORE HERE: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/08/4-reasons-why-biden-entering-race-would-help-sanders
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4 Reasons Why a Biden Run Would Help Sanders (Original Post)
ghostsinthemachine
Aug 2015
OP
randys1
(16,286 posts)1. LOOK AT OUR CANDIDATES
Now look at the other side
We are superior, in every way, to every con on the planet and it is so fucking obvious
WillyT
(72,631 posts)2. K & R !!!
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)3. Okay, this sounds reasonable, but it
brings up the question: What does Biden really
gain by running again? Does he know for
some inexplicable reason that HRC would lose to him?
This just opens more questions than just Biden's
wish to become POTUS, imo.
GoneFishin
(5,217 posts)4. Hillary or Joe will drop out before the primary. They are playing for the same team. This is an
establishment strategy against non-insiders. They are counting on Hillary and Joe each attracting slightly different demographics, which they will consolidate when one of them drops out before the Democratic primary.
There is no way the Democratic Party machine will pit two insiders against each other in the primary.