Bernie will pass Hillary nationally in December,

[Admiral Loinpresser]

according to extrapolation of polls.


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[Maedhros]

1. All of these polls are showing Biden at 13-14%.

If he doesn't enter the race, my guess is that a big chunk of Biden's support will flow to Sanders and O'Malley.

On the other hand, if Biden does enter the race he will likely sap some support from Hillary.

Both of these things will accelerate Sanders' overtaking of Hillary.

[dsc]

2. Do you even realize how inconsistent your post is?

First you say Biden's supporters are likely to be Sanders or O'Malley voters then you say no wait, he really is pulling from Hillary.

[Maedhros]

3. No, I'm saying this:

The 13-14% of Biden support in the polls, if given a choice between Hillary and Sanders/O'Malley, would probably go for the latter if Biden is ruled out.

If Biden actually enters the race, I expect that he will pull additional support away from Hillary.

That's perfectly consistent.

[stevenleser]

4. The race will realign after each of the first two debates Oct 13 and Nov 14. By Nov 20, polls will

show the fallout one way or the other.

By then, most folks will have decided whom they will support and the polls won't move much after that.

[virtualobserver]

6. the most interesting part about the debate will be the approach of the candidates

We know Hillary's style, Bernie will be issues only, and O'Malley will come out swinging against both of them.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

8. The polls moved dramatically

in 2008 after Iowa.

[Motown_Johnny]

10. I agree with most of that, unless some scandal hits a candidate.

Or a dark horse starts getting more coverage.

I think the race really starts after the second debate. All this fighting over each new poll this far out is just silly.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

12. It's true there are many unknowns.

Yet the Bernie momentum is a growing trend. Also, the OP is based on the trend line of the aggregate of major polls. Note the linked article:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/polls-show-bernie-sanders-winning-the-democratic-nomination_b_8069452.html?ir=Politics

[Godhumor]

5. Polling trends are not linear and they can't be extrapolated as such

I am really hoping you knew that and just posted this for the recs. Or to annoy Clinton supporters.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

7. I think the bookies

making odds are aware of those trends. Generally, I don't post to annoy Clinton supporters, I prefer to inform or hearten Bernie supporters.

But the trend lines do tell a story about the Summer of Sanders. He has exceeded all expert expectations. Also in making that assertion, I discounted several variables in Bernie's favor: increasing name recognition leading to greater support, the return of Millennials to college, which should lead to greater energy in the campaign and the long-awaited debates.

[Godhumor]

9. Actually bookies have been remarkably consistent on Clinton winning

The predictive market aggregate sure Predictwise.com has Clinton's chance at the nomination at 74%. It has been between 72% and 75% pretty much since Biden speculation began.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

11. I will bet my house

that HRC's chance on May 1 was well above 74%. I'm pretty confident that number will be less than 74% on December 1.

[Juicy_Bellows]

37. Your house is as safe as a safe in a vault in a safe. Nt.

[NYCButterfinger]

13. Sanders will lead Clinton by 10 points nationally in December.

In my honest opinion. I think Clinton will have a tough December, and Sanders will lead in IA, NH, and then some Democrats will want to smear Sanders. Sanders needs to prove that he can be electable beyond the primary and he needs to speak about veterans issues that are crucial to voters that have veterans in their families.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

14. From your keyboard,

to God's lurk.

[Fawke Em]

28. He's been consistant in his support for veterans

http://vetsforbernie.org/

[Freddie Stubbs]

15. A lot of people lost a lot of money in real estate when the market crashed in 2007

They extrapolated the values of properties based on increases in previous years.

[reddread]

16. similar prospects

for some campaign contributors this time around.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

17. That's because rich people are stupid. n/t

[Freddie Stubbs]

18. Many of those people were not rich

[Admiral Loinpresser]

19. People who lost their homes

were fleeced by con men for the most part. But how many banksters went to jail?.........Crickets.

[moobu2]

20. December what year?

[Admiral Loinpresser]

21. 2015.

[DCBob]

22. Extrapolate this..

[Admiral Loinpresser]

23. LOL, good one. n/t

[Admiral Loinpresser]

26. btw, who customized that? n/t

[DCBob]

27. It's my creation.

You like it?

[Admiral Loinpresser]

29. Well,

to be honest, I don't know how you arrived at it. But it doesn't reflect the reality of what happened in August, which is the same as what has happened in May, June and July: Bernie is gaining steadily. In fact, strategically, August was the best month so far, for Bernie.

[DCBob]

33. Easy.. just select the date range aug 1 to current.

and select less smoothing option. Done.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

34. It seems counter-intuitive.

Is it possible the scale of data magnitude vs. time is distorted?

Because if you back out to April 1 through September you see a straight slope indicating constant growth in magnitude. Do you you have an idea how to resolve your shorter-time graph with my longer one?

[DCBob]

35. Its due to a slight decrease in Bernie's numbers as compared

to Hillary's during the past few weeks. If you do a longer time period the decrease doesnt show.

[Godhumor]

39. Function of Pollster's trend smoothing

Even less smoothing still evens out rides and dips some. If you want to see a straight aggregate average over time, try realclearpolitics.com (ignore the columns and just go to the polls). The numbers will be different than Pollster as they do not include internet based polls and they don't smooth results.

[kenfrequed]

24. Uhm...

Ok, I really want to believe this is going to happen, but I hate making predictions or projections like this. It really is a bit wooly and practically invites methodological digressions about trends and what not.

Numbers go up and down and I just think it is important to keep working at talking to people in day to day life.

I volunteered at the State Fair here in Minnesota and had a great time.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

25. I agree.

Polls are not the answer, they are a reflection, in the aggregate, of how far we've come.

I'm going to Iowa tomorrow and very excited. That's why I'm posting a lot today, I have to watch my email closely for the trip logistics.

[HereSince1628]

32. Extrapolation is very unreliable as a method of predicting the future

But setting aside accurate predictions extrapolation is fun.

[L0oniX]

30. K & R

[Admiral Loinpresser]

31. Remember how they were

throwing polls in our faces a couple of months ago? The meme then was "Hillary has consistently polled at a 40-60% lead over all potential candidates since 2013."

Haven't heard that one in a while. Now that the aggregate of polling has a trend line clearly showing Bernie overtaking HRC (before he's even filled out his name recognition), polling trends are suddenly inconsequential. What a hoot.

[alcibiades_mystery]

36. Sanders won't win a single state

Book it.

[Juicy_Bellows]

38. Yes. Yes he will. You book it. Nt.

[kenfrequed]

40. *sigh*

Nonsense.