New Loras Poll: Clinton up 25 points in Iowa

[ericson00]

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Clinton-Leads-but-Sanders-Gains,-Loras-College-Pol.aspx

Hillary Clinton 48.2%, Bernie Sanders 22.9%...

Given this poll and yesterday's PPP poll (and even a Gravis one too), looks like the Des Moines Register one was an outlier as I predicted. HRC '16!!!

[lunamagica]

1. K&R. Go Hillary!

[Fred Sanders]

2. 54% of Democrats have a positive view of the direction of the country, 8% for the gloom and doom GOP.

Obama job performance approval is 80.9%!

[HerbChestnut]

3. Getting a little nervous?

When candidates are on the move poll numbers tend to jump around. It's called variability. What really matters is the trend. It's difficult to tell what's an outlier and what isn't until you have a more complete dataset, which in this case means the next wave of polls to come out in a few weeks.

[ericson00]

4. I know what an outlier is. speaking of trends,

the DMR poll would be far from a line of best fit, hence why its an outlier.

[HerbChestnut]

7. You wouldn't know that without doing statistical analysis...

and even then it's possible that variability is high enough where the DMR poll is not an outlier. I wouldn't draw any conclusions before more polling data is released in the future.

[BooScout]

13. Howdy!

[HerbChestnut]

16. Herro

[MADem]

9. Why welcome to DU...and what an odd thing to say.

I guess you don't know what an "outlier" is.

[HerbChestnut]

10. Provide me with some statistical analysis and then I'll believe that is an outlier.

[MADem]

12. Oh, I'm sure you can do the homework to "prove me wrong!" nt

[bvar22]

14. JENGA!!!!

Well Done.

[AgingAmerican]

31. A candidate officially blacklisted by the media

Is closing in on her and even surpassing her in some polls. The debates will not be good for Hillary Clinton. They will no longer be able to 'hide' Sanders from the voters.

[Iliyah]

5. K & R

PPP had a polling on Iowa?

[ericson00]

6. yep, Hillary 55, Bernie 20,

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_National_Poll_Aug_28-30_Dem.pdf

DMR was doing a Quinnipiac; produce outliers and getting publicity

[DCBob]

8. Yeah, and look at Joe closing in on Bernie.

Only 6 behind!

[WI_DEM]

11. Always look at several polls for trends not just one

[WI_DEM]

15. If Biden doesn't move HRC appears to be the chief beneficiary

In looking at the second choices of voters, it appears that if Joe Biden decides not to run for the nomination, Hillary Clinton will be the beneficiary of that decision. Of the voters who chose Biden as their first choice, 54.9 percent indicated Hillary Clinton was their second choice, while only 20.7 percent indicated they supported Bernie Sanders as their second choice. Overall, Joe Biden was the most popular second choice candidate, being selected by 31.1 percent of all likely voters.

[AgingAmerican]

32. Context

Bernie is officially blacklisted by the MSM.

Once the debates begin, everything changes.

[okasha]

33. Bernie has been all over the weekend talk shows.

Where is your evidence that he has been blacklisted, officially or unofficially?

[AgingAmerican]

34. The media is hiding him

Even MSNBC won't mention him. The media reminds me of the little Dutch boy. The dike will soon break. You can't stop DESTINY!!

HE is the ONE!

[4dsc]

18. Bernie folks will show at caucus time

and the polls will be meaningless then.

[wilsonbooks]

19. Yes. And Mark my words,

It won't be close. Bernie's supporters will show up come rain or shine.

[Helen Borg]

20. Hillary is toast!

[AgingAmerican]

35. I think she is more bagel

...than toast!

[SunSeeker]

21. K & R

[JDPriestly]

22. Per that same poll, since April, Bernie is up 20.9 points, Clinton down 8.8 and Biden up 10.4

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Clinton-Leads-but-Sanders-Gains,-Loras-College-Pol.aspx

The early primaries are held in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

The entire West Coast is ignored -- as usual.

My experience canvassing for Bernie is that here in my area of Southern California, a lot of people know him and support him. A lot more than that poll suggests.

I would like to see all the primaries across the country held on the same day. We here in California and others in Western states don't have much say because the early primaries are used to predict the ultimate outcome.

None of the early primary states have large cities.

The result is that our administrations do not respond adequately to the needs of people living in heavily populated cities like Los Angeles, New York and Chicago.

We need to have a say too. Our problems need attention.

Just confirms that the system is rigged to perpetuate conservative, right-wing leading political leadership. No wonder we have so much homelessness and crime. The homeless mostly live in big cities. The crime mostly occurs in big cities. And big cities have very little voice in the administration of justice and economic policy.

California will have 55 electoral college votes.

Iowa will have only 6 electoral college votes.

New Hampshire: only 4 ecv

South Carolina: 9 ecv

New York: 29 ecv

Illinois: 20 ecv

Florida: 29 ecv

Texas: 38 ecv

Ohio: 18 ecv

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29v

The total number of electoral college votes in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina combined is 19. Less than one half the votes in California, and only two votes short of only 1/3 of the votes of California.

Yet those are the three tiny states that go first in our primaries.

Does that make sense?

Are they really the barometer, a measure of any sort for the majority of Americans?

Love the people in those states, but????? Democracy anyone?

Agriculture is very important, but our cities are in big trouble.

Is anyone out there?

This seems so obvious.

[Hiraeth]

24. Agriculture is very important, but our cities are in big trouble. yes, I hear you, JD.

and I agree with you

I would like to see all the primaries across the country held on the same day.

I think the entire process is too long.

[BooScout]

30. Thight might be because he didn't announce until May...

...so it stands to reason he has moved up because he's actually a candidate now....but he's now peaked....so I don't look for him to go much further.

[HereSince1628]

23. these polls show us our understanding of the variability in polls is poorer that we think.

All these polls are produced reporting traditional estimates of confidence. Over all the polls the

And I don't find that particularly surprising. We assume a lot in using traditional representations of uncertainty around measurement.

These survey results should give us some sense that our previous understanding about polling Iowans isn't quite what we thing it is and the models that is based on aren't guiding as good interpretations as we might suppose they do.

I'm not really deep into Bayesian statistics or philosophy but concept that the very notion that we go into polling surveys thinking the sampling has certain likelihoods of guiding accurate interpretation of Iowans opinions, is actually modified by what we learn from sampling is an attractive idea.

[left-of-center2012]

25. Go Bernie !

"The news is not all positive for Clinton, however, as her level of support has decreased since the last Loras Poll in April.
Perhaps more importantly, the latest poll shows the support for her nearest rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, has risen dramatically.

"... this summer has been very good for Senator Sanders.
He has drawn large and enthusiastic crowds in the state and across the country.
We have seen substantial positive movement for Sanders in our polling.

[magical thyme]

26. both that poll and the PPP poll linked w/in the replies look skewed toward older people

70% landlines in the Loras poll. Nearly 80% middle aged and older people in PPP.

[lunamagica]

27. Older people are the most reliable voters.eom

[Ill16]

28. Cool.

Love this place.

[riversedge]

29. Keep up the good work Hillary and thanks to all the Iowa staff and volunteers.

[oasis]

36. Thanks and a kick

[JDPriestly]

37. I think he will go further especially in national pollls. The only reason the polls show Hillary ah

that people think she will win. Bernie"s volunteers are just getting started. Once Democtats see. How much support Bernie really has, once they realize that others, many others. Like Bernie as they themselves do, they will admit publicly that hey really want Bernie.

i am amazed when I talk to voters in my area how many are for Bernie. It is e social media campaign and the bad and insecure economy and job market that favor Bernie.

What a quandry for Wall Street. They are iitchng for anothe recession so they can take profits from the controlled demollition of the markets. Normally an economic downturn would nean that the party outside the White House would win. But Bernie is a wild card that would change the rules of that game.

Feel the Bern.