HuffPo Blog: Polls show Bernie will win nomination.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/polls-show-bernie-sanders-winning-the-democratic-nomination_b_8069452.html?ir=Politics

[Metric System]

1. This work of fiction has already been posted:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=563450

[Admiral Loinpresser]

7. I thought it might have been, but I looked and couldn't find it.

But someone acknowledging the real possibility that Bernie wins the nomination is so refreshing in contrast to the media blackout that I thought it needed to be posted.

[Metric System]

12. There's nothing wrong with acknowledging that possibility, but I do take issue with the headline,

which claims polls show Sanders winning the nomination. At this point in time at least that is completely untrue.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

19. Things have changed beyond any expert prediction.

That someone can have a basis to make the claim is remarkable and a tribute to the Summer of Sanders.

The polling industry may have accuracy troubles compensating for ubiquitous cell phones, just as they had trouble in 1948 due to the relative paucity of Democratic phones. That redounds to the benefit of Bernie. Millenials use cell phones more than other demographics on average.

But the trend line is definitely in Bernie's favor. We have a long way to go, but I am already seeing cracks in the MSM Bernie blackout and DWS is starting to pay a toll for her Clinton favoritism. A Business As Usual Dem candidate will not win the election, imo, so I'm encouraged that we may have a chance to save the planet.

[99th_Monkey]

2. .

[Cali_Democrat]

3. The author of the article is extrapolating.

Besides, why is the author of the article so excited about Bernie?

He already said he's voting Rand Paul:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/im-a-liberal-democrat-im_b_6169542.html

[Metric System]

4. He's more of an anti-Hillary Clinton type. He has never posted a positive article about her, but he

has posted positive pieces on Rand Paul and Jim Webb, who are well to Hillary's right.

[randys1]

5. If that is the case then the author must want to disrupt the Democratic primary process

Dont think for a second there arent a whole lotta folk everywhere who want that.

[azurnoir]

6. Lol that article is 2 years old guess he changed his mind but it is worth a read

[Cali_Democrat]

8. Nov. 17 2014 is two years ago? nt

[azurnoir]

9. oh I'm so sorry my mistake 1 year 9 months and 15 days isn't anywhere near 2 years

I stand oh so corrected

[Cali_Democrat]

11. Nov 17 2014 is 9 months ago.

Today's date is Sep 2, 2015.

The article was first posted Nov 14, 2014.

The difference is 9 months and 17 days.

You might want to check your math.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I have to award you this round

eom

[Metric System]

15. He's too busy rolling on the floor laughing, apparently.

[azurnoir]

18. your correct but apparently he changed his mind so Hilsbara 1 on this factiod next smear

Paulites support bernie

[Admiral Loinpresser]

20. The snark is kinda goofy,

given the trivial mistake makes no difference in your argument. One year or two, he was in a different universe. The disastrous midterms had just ended. He was frustrated because, as Bernie told the DNC recently, the GOP didn't win that election. We lost it! I suspect he was yearning for the Democratic Party to give people a reason to vote!

[azurnoir]

21. very true that there seemed to have been an 'enthusiasm gap' with voters in 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/the-worst-voter-turnout-in-72-years.html?_r=0

[Admiral Loinpresser]

22. You should OP that link.

Business As Usual isn't even working for the DNC. I bet their average donors are melting away. The DNC should replace DWS, the sooner the better.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

10. Rand Paul is, of course, a kook. But

most of the foreign policy points made by the linked author are very well taken. America is involved in a program of perpetual war. Wouldn't you agree?

[Admiral Loinpresser]

16. I think he's excited

about the prospect of getting our military people out of the Middle East. I sure am.

[HappyPlace]

13. But but but Hillary's at 55% to Bernie's 29%!

Unfavorable rating...

[Maedhros]

17. It's a little early to be picking a winner based upon polls.

The more one extrapolates from available data, the larger the margin of error.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

23. Valid point.

Extrapolating out, say four months, probably yields a "yooge" margin of error. In mitigation, post Labor Day name recognition for Bernie will likely accelerate, leading to higher favorables.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

24. Also, if the trend holds for just one more month,

this will have become a horse race. Secretary Clinton may not be able to handle the meme of being three months from second place in the race.