Survey USA poll: Hillary loses the worst of 4 Democrats against Trump

[jfern]

Trump beats Clinton 45-40
Trump beats Sanders 44-40
Trump beats Biden 44-42
Trump beats Gore 44-41

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6

[SonderWoman]

1. Funniest poll I've ever seen. Trump pulling 25% of Af-American voters!

[jfern]

2. It has him winning Asians

Which might be even odder.

[VanillaRhapsody]

3. OMG for Real?

So apparently someone has been perusing the rightwing blogosphere searching for smears against Clinton again...my my my Bless thier heart!

[jfern]

4. LOL, this isn't from the right-wing

SUSA has an A rating from 538, and was used more than any other pollster by 538.

[VanillaRhapsody]

5. It sure has a rightwing stench about it....

And how else can you explain Asians and 25% Blacks voting for Trump! Its ridiculous!

[jfern]

6. It's a poll from a good pollster

Now it could be too pro-Republican, but that's normal statistics and not because the pollster is bad.

Also, the margin of error on small subsamples is larger. I mean, I really doubt Trump actually leads with Asians.

[leftofcool]

18. Yea, because we all know that Trump gets 25% of AA's and all the Asians.

[mythology]

39. Every poll has both a margin of error and more importantly a confidence interval

They could have surveyed a weird set of people, they could have worded questions in either an intentionally or unintentionally leading fashion. Polls are estimated to be at the 95% confidence level, meaning 1 in 20 or so has the possibility of being absolute crap.

Any given poll is relatively meaningless. Looking at trends over time is a far better indicator.

Also, Trump really isn't being attacked yet by Democrats. He's sucked most of the oxygen out of the Republican race and so while Jeb Bush is sort of trying to attack him, there isn't much attention out there on the Republican side to generate attacks on Trump.

[SonderWoman]

7. The methodology says...

That the more cellphone respondents makes a poll more Democratic, then proceeds to use 63% landline?

[jfern]

8. Well if it was 100% cellphone it'd be too Democratic

So there's an optimal percentage to correspond with registered voters.

[VanillaRhapsody]

43. Yeah.....that makes perfect sense!

This is totally a legit poll!!!

[Mass]

9. A poll that early is absolutely meaningless.

A lot of internals make no sense. For example, there are as many men than women, voters with a 4 year degree are won heavily by Trump, while Dems win people without diploma, Clinton's voters more enthusiastic than Sanders. Sorry, this is very weird.

[underthematrix]

10. To this I say Romney 2012

[pkdu]

11. 17-18 percent of self described "VERY LIBERAL" registered voters would vote for the Donald...

absolute and complete bullshit poll

[Suich]

12. Why is Gore in there?

No way Trump gets 29%-32% of Hispanic vote.

[yeoman6987]

13. Bush got 45 percent

So a third of Hispanics won't vote for trump? Not sure about that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. George W. Bush spoke Spanish, was pro-immigration, and has Hispanic nieces and nephews.

Trump is hardly a surrogate for him when it comes to Latinos/Hispanics.

Odd poll, btw:

Among a subset of registered voters who tell SurveyUSA that they pay "a lot" of attention to politics, the scale tilts to the right: Today it's:

* Trump 54%, Clinton 36%.
* Trump 53%, Sanders 39%.
* Trump 53%, Biden 37%.
* Trump 54%, Gore 36%.

I am sure you will be hearing Trump tout this poll, a lot...

[yeoman6987]

15. I still think at the end of the day, it will be Clinton vs bush

I just have that feeling. I remember in 2012, the GOP didn't want Romney (until he was nominated of course) and he ended up getting the nomination. The right is making noise about not wanting bush but the constituency is not necessarily going to go for a trump or Cruz at the end of the day.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Can't game the GOP race. It's beyond my ken at this point...

The headline numbers from the Survey USA poll aren't all that off... Trump is running well against everybody at this point. The sub samples are definitely off.

[ram2008]

19. Clinton should step aside and let Warren enter the race in her place

The e-mail thing will give her campaign a death by a thousand cuts if she makes it to the general. Why put everything at risk just because she wants to be President. This is an election we should be walking away with - especially if Donald Trump is the nominee.

Hoping Bernie can overcome her soon or we're going to be in big trouble.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

22. I continue to be perplexed by comments

That this email issue is going to sink Clinton. I will bet money that it will barely be mentioned (if at all) and anybody already predisposed to vote for won't care at all IMHO. It's seriously a nothing burger so far. I would put the chances of some kind of disastrous revelations coming from it at well less than 50/50.

[ram2008]

31. If it was a nothing burger her numbers wouldn't continue to decline

The e-mail situation highlights some very big character flaws with clinton. Mainly it calls into question her judgment and trustworthiness.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

34. Polling this far out doesn't tell us much IMHO.

Lots of people not paying attention at the moment.

[VanillaRhapsody]

44. Yeah....that 74% chance of winning looks totally horrible!

[tularetom]

36. You haven't heard anything from the republicans yet because she isn't the nominee yet

All they have to do is keep the embers alive until she actually gets nomination and then the shit will hit the fan. And not just the email thing, they'll bring back Benghazi, snipergate, and probably Vince Foster, travel gate and Whitewater. It won't be a pretty sight, and American voters will lap it up.

You might not like to hear it, but the Clintons are a target rich environment for these kind of attacks. And they've brought a lot of it on themselves.

[VanillaRhapsody]

29. Why on earth should she do that?

She has a 74% chance of winning....next in line is Sanders with only 12%!

[ram2008]

30. She does not have a 74% chance of winning the general n/t

[VanillaRhapsody]

33. In the Primary...but let me get that figure for you...

first...Democrats have a 57% chance of winning the General.....she has a 74% chance of winning that spot. So what were you saying?

She has a 41% chance of winning followed by Jeb Bush 16% and Trump at 15%........Bernie Sanders trailing with 5%

again....you were saying?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. No...But she has a much better chance of winning the general than her opponents

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

[teach me everything]

46. From where?

I'd like to see that source of your prediction...

[VanillaRhapsody]

48. Predictwise.com....

[dsc]

20. A couple of things

all of them are in the same statistical place. The MOE is 3.3 making the difference between who Hillary does and how Biden does statistically insignificant. I also think that there is zero chance of Trump getting anything like a quarter of the black vote and close to a third of the Hispanic vote which he supposedly does against all of our candidates in this poll.

[jfern]

23. If almost all the people vote the same, the MOE is much smaller

when comparing how they do.

[dsc]

25. ah no that isn't remotely close to true

that isn't how that works. The fact it is the same sample would mean that if it is off it would likely be off in the same direction but that isn't necessarily how it works. Maybe a small percent of the sample are Democrats who just don't like females and is overrepresented in this sample. If that were the case her numbers would be lower and the rest OK. The fact is they all do statistically the same against Trump.

[jfern]

32. No, if 99% of the people voted exactly the same

And 1% switched from one candidate to another, and 0% went the opposite way, that would be statistically significant that 9 out of 9 went the same way. Compared to the null hypothesis of them being split 50/50, there'd be less than a 1% chance that they'd all go one way.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. He is getting 50% -51% of the white vote in those polls.

He will actually need to 62%-65% to win!!!

To demonstrate the difficulty of reaching 65% he will have to exceed the percentage of the white vote Reagan received in his 1984 landslide.

[dsc]

26. yeah that is another anomaly

this poll is a hot mess.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. The 51% isn't particularly anomalous.

But to win the Republican has to do much better than that. If the Republican only get 51% of the white vote in 016 he or she will lose in a landslide. As a reference Mitt Romney got 59% of the white vote in 012 and received 47% of the popular vote.

All things aside , including the anomalous subsamples, Trump is riding high at the moment and while the poll is off I suspect he's polling well.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

21. Can you say, outlier

A waaaaay too early outlier to boot IMHO. OTOH it may not be too much of a bad idea to give the Republicans a measure of false hope (and possibly embrace Trump more)?

[Logical]

37. Remember, "early" was when hillary did her best in 2008......

she had a 30 point lead, later on she got the crap kicked out of her by Obama.

[mythology]

40. That's a fairly generous use of the phrase got the crap kicked out of

She was effectively tied in the primary votes (actually Clinton finished ahead of Obama in the voting per Wikipedia). She didn't do as well in caucuses as her strategy didn't do enough to account for them, but the race wasn't a blow out by any stretch. Obama's team had a really solid strategy involving combining winning blacks, liberal whites and caucus states. Sanders doesn't seem to be making enough progress among either blacks or Latinos to tip the nomination to him.

I'm sorry if that doesn't fit your narrative.

[Logical]

41. Well, if you lose a 30 point lead you still lost a 30 point lead. It shows how.....

weak her support was.

[VanillaRhapsody]

45. well losing a 30 point lead....when you have an 88 point start....seems terrible

until you realize her opponents are still in the low teens or less! Even if you handicap them and float them to 25%...that still puts her way ahead! Talk about WEAK! Here is a mirror!

[Logical]

49. She will cost us the general. Nt

[guillaumeb]

28. A question that was only asked about Democratic candidates:

If Hillary Clinton were on the ballot, would you cast your vote for her ... enthusiastically? With reservations? Or would you be holding your nose in voting for her?

Why is this? The wording is deliberately designed, in my view, to frame all of the Democratic candidates as poor choices, with a "best of the worst crop" mentality.

Is this another form of "push polling", where the object is to get a predetermined result?

[Godhumor]

38. 17 to 18% "Very Liberal" respondents picked Trump in every scenario

The possibility of that really happening is minimum, I would say.

[book_worm]

42. grasping at straws--statistically there is no difference between any of them.

And second polls this early are meaningless especially for a general election. Finally, if we are to take this poll seriously then we have to ask is do we really want Donald Trump as the GOP nominee?

[VanillaRhapsody]

47. We don't have control over that.....but we do have control of our party....and making

sure we put our strongest candidate out front to prevent a forced error and we get a fluke President Trump!