2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Sanders and Clinton plateau and the Biden surge
So the CNN poll came out today showing support for Clinton down to 37% while Sanders also lost 2 points from the last CNN poll. This, of course, means Biden picked up pretty much all the support that dropped from the other two.
What is interesting is that we appear to be in another surge situation now, but this time around Biden. What people don't or won't mention is that the race between only Clinton and Sanders stabilized in the past month and a half with Clinton polling in the low to to high 40s and Sanders polling in the low to mid 20s. Instead, we're now seeing a fast uptick in support for someone who may not even become an active candidate.
All signs pointed to Clinton and Sanders being at a consistent level of support until at least the first debate. With Biden, Sanders doesn't gain additional positive ground on Clinton, but Clinton does lose support to Biden. In my opinion, before the debates, this shows me that Sanders base is loyal but has expanded to its first natural ceiling. Clinton's base is more fluid with Biden being seen as an acceptable alternative to Clinton. Therefore, if Biden enters, Sanders stays at the level he is currently at, Biden instantly moves to about the same level as Bernie at the expense of Clinton and both Biden and Sanders find themselves within striking distance of Clinton.
If Biden decides to run, our primary just got a lot more interesting.
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Proof of the Clinton and Sanders plateau and Biden increase can be see at the RCP aggregate for August 1st through September 10th.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
Tom Rinaldo
(22,911 posts)I say that for two main reasons. One, Sanders continues to build positive momentum in the States which currently have the most active contests; Iowa and New Hampshire. Actually he is in gaining support in South Carolina also, the third State to have a contest, though he remains far behind there for the moment - but the same could once be said about Iowa before Sanders began actively campaigning there. The take away from this is obvious, when more people are exposed to Sanders, his popularity continues to build. Anyone who objectively observes national coverage of the Presidential campaigns however would have to agree that the media is under reporting Sanders relative to his status in the race, unlike Clinton, Bush Trump, and even Biden. And the latter group of politicians already entered the race with extremely high voter recognition levels, unlike Sanders.
Second, even looking at the National polling - it is rare indeed when a high profile new name gets thrown into the polling mix for the earlier candidates not to have their own poling numbers drop at least somewhat. The pie is now being divided into more pieces, the natural tendency is for the size of each piece to shrink. It is very rare when a new entry into the field draws all of their support from one candidate and none from another. O'Malley, Webb and Chaffee had virtually no support to begin with, so Biden can't steal much of anything from them in these polls. With Biden's profile being raised he is going to draw support from where it already exists, and that means from Hillary and Bernie. But Biden isn't even close to pulling support equally from Hillary and from Bernie, he is pulling votes away from Hillary much more so than he is from Bernie. Sanders is within the margin of error for holding steady in a larger more competitive field, Hillary is not.Given that Biden of late has gotten much more national press, very sympathetic for the most part, than Bernie who many know little about, the fact that Sanders is holding steadily nationally while continuing to advance where is is actively campaigning signals that his surge continues.
Thanks Tom!....sounds like the more probable scenario.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)This was updated today
The trend continues
P.S. Biden running is doubtful.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)I expected her numbers to drop somewhat, given that she started the race with enormous name recognition, but that's some slope!
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)I propose that their polling trends will move toward 33 1/3.
Anyone who moves significantly above that as the undecideds disappear will be moving at the cost of one of the other 2.
There will be only so many degrees of freedom.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)Plateau, you keep using this word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)... cool story bro.