Sept 17 YouGov poll: Clinton 45 up 1pt; Sanders 26 Down 9pts; Biden 19 down 2pts in 2 weeks

[riversedge]

Last edited Thu Sep 17, 2015, 04:55 PM - Edit history (1)

Keep up the good work Hillary


Clinton the top second choice for both Biden and Sanders supporters

Hillary Clinton does well among supporters of both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders when it comes to second preferences

The Democratic contest for the party’s presidential nomination seems to have changed little in recent weeks. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s support remains below 50%, with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Vice President Joe Biden running in second and third. But registered voters who identify as Democrats in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll haven’t really deserted Clinton: while as many choose Sanders and Biden together as support Clinton, should Biden not enter the race, or should Sanders drop out, Clinton would gain the most.




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.....But among Democrats, even those Democrats who favor her major opponents, Clinton has support. If Biden doesn’t enter the race, 60% of his current supporters say they would move to support Clinton. While just 45% of Sanders supporters say Clinton would be their second choice, that is still more Sanders voters as would favor Biden in that circumstance............

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

1. In matters of conscience, the law of majority has no place. Gandhi

[upaloopa]

5. In the life of reality that will get you a repub

president. The burn the house down crowd has no honor.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

6. Principles vary.

[upaloopa]

7. We all have principles

Not giving the government to the right is one of my principles.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

10. Not voting for someone who voted for, and supported, the killing of people is one of mine.

Somewhere between 300,000 and 1,000,000 people.

[upaloopa]

13. Ok fine

I can understand what you want to do.
It is not going to make the world better.
I was drafted and sent to Vietnam. War is mankind at it's worse. I saw it first hand.
You can't do anything about it unless you have some leverage.
I can respect your ideals
Hope you can get several million more in the streets next time.

[roguevalley]

22. you gov polls are random online things if I remember correctly. If you go there

you can vote. I will take polls with a grain of salt especially this one.

[upaloopa]

24. I will have to check it out

[roguevalley]

26. I posted a bit of their mission statement down below, upaloopa. :D

[upaloopa]

32. I will check it out don't want to be in the wrong

on this

[nichomachus]

2. It's not a good idea to check your 401K balances on an hourly basis either. n/t

[SonderWoman]

3. K&R! They need to stop polling Biden.

[Renew Deal]

4. Why is Sanders support suddenly collapsing?

Were old polls wrong? Did he peak too soon?

[upaloopa]

8. Flash in the pan

His shiny paint job is wearing off a bit.
How many rallies can he keep going to.
1. He doesn't have the support of the majority of Dem voters
2. You can't run a campaign in 2016 on $30 donations
3. He has no super delegate endorsements
He is a great Senator and I hope he supports Hillary in 2017 rather than trash her like he did Obama.

[enid602]

20. Bernie

Bernie's greatest attribute is that he voted 'correctly' 100% of the time, with the exception of gun-control related issues. This is also the litmus test of tea party pols.
But what allies does he have in the legislature? How much legislation has he authored during his long tenure in Congress? How will he accomplish all of the things he and his supporters are promising? How does he get us to single payer, when it does not even exist in the European Union? Each European country has its own system, which our individual states are also free to do. And even if he were to achieve single payer in the US, what good would it do us when per capita health costs in the US are twice what they are in other industrialized countries? If he has the balls to fight with the Republicans to achieve these goals, why haven't we seen more from him in Congress.

[upaloopa]

23. I have always enjoyed listening to him on

talk radio and progressive TV. But I never saw him as the spark that ignites the fire. He repeats what we all think but he is ineffective.
It takes more than saying the right things.
Also he says the right things for White liberals but there are more people to lead then that. And what is good for White liberals is not the cure for what ails POC.

[Godhumor]

9. His support has been consistent since August. Media has framed it as surging or reducing.

He plateau'd immediately after the Fox News and CNN polls showed his close to 30 points. Just looking at his support numbers since August 11th, his numbers have been (in order):

24
22
20
20
27 CNN follow up poll from there 8/11 showing support at 29
22
27

Used RCP for numbers as Pollster is undergoing maintenance. Pollster will have more numbers, as RCP does not include internet only polls.

But Bernie has been very consistent in support for 6 weeks now. For some reason it is never talked about that way.

[roguevalley]

25. this is yougov. Don't lose sleep over this poll

What is YouGov Profiles?

Profiles is our segmentation and media planning product for agencies and brands. This product is powered by data collected in the YouGov Cube – our connected data vault which holds over 100,000 data points, collected from over 150,000 YouGov members in the United States.

Get the profile of your target audience across multi-channel data sets with greater granularity and accuracy than ever before.

[Godhumor]

29. I don't lose sleep over internet polls, I was just trying to answer the question posed

Which is that Bernie isn't surging or falling. He plateaued 6 weeks ago and has stayed there.

[upaloopa]

34. Read it thanks

[Go Vols]

31. its not

[magical thyme]

33. The left side (Sept 1) adds up to 103, which is impossible. Bernie hasn't broken 30 in NATIONAL poll

103% is impossible.

In their eagerness to make it appear that Bernie is collapsing, somebody apparently added "10" to Bernie's numbers in the Sept. 1 poll on the left.

But keep trying...

[reformist2]

11. The only movement in that poll is 9% went from Sanders to Undecided.

Without a reason explaining such a shift in the past two weeks, and none seems very obvious to me, then I would tend to split the difference and say that the current "truth" lies somewhere in between the two polls, so something like a 44-31-20 split.

[FloridaBlues]

12. Keep going HRC

[jfern]

14. Totally wrong, Sanders had 25, not 35

Nice try inflating his old number by 10 points to make it look like he's dropping.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/i2pntevdjk/econToplines.pdf

[Rose Siding]

15. The YouGov poll was at 35

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/09/17/clinton-top-second-choice-both-biden-and-sanders-s/



In the one on the YouGov site, he dropped 9pts. YouGov was the 2nd most accurate pollster in 2012.

[Godhumor]

18. Nate rates them as a C+

As an internet only firm they have an inherent sample bias issue.

[jfern]

38. No, it was never 35%, it was 25%.

[bvar22]

17. Busted!

*

[frylock]

16. Sanders is doomed in that national primary you guys keep alluding to.

[dreamnightwind]

19. Errr, something isn't right here...

The August 28 / Sept 1 results, with no category for undecided, adds up to 103%! The Sept 11 - 15th results, also with no category for undecideds, adds up to 93. This graphic is definitly not accurate in some respect, any explanation?

[mhatrw]

21. What is up with all the poll lies from Clinton supporters today?

The totals in the first column add up to 103%.

The totals in the second column add up to 93%.

Do you think we can't count?

[Godhumor]

28. Two things

First, the yougov graphic has a typo from yougov not the OP. At 9/1 Bernie's support was 25 not 35. Someone screwed up the graph.

Second, the graph doesn't show other or don't know choices. This past poll, other was 1% and don't know was 6% to bring the total to 100%.


There was no purposeful dishonesty in the OP.

[jfern]

39. Sanders was at 25% in earlier poll

So actually he gained a point.

[Godhumor]

35. See post 28 n/t

[riversedge]

36. Thank you for your

astute post. Very much appreciated.

[LoveIsNow]

37. The Numbers literally don't add up.

The percentages in the left graph add up to 103%.

The percentages in the second graph add up to 93%.

I will leave it to others to draw conclusions, but those are the facts.

[magical thyme]

40. seriously riversedge: fix your title; the table has a TYPO. Bernie did NOT drop 9% in 2 weeks

and they did NOT poll 103% of respondents in Aug 28-Sep 1.

Bernie was most likely at 25% 2 weeks ago; he's never polled above 30% nationally and it is impossible to have poll results total 103% without a mistake. % means per cent, which means 'per 100' period.

[DCBob]

41. That graph has a typo. I checked the raw data and the Aug28-Sep1 number for BS was 25 not 35.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/i2pntevdjk/econToplines.pdf

Regardless.. its still good news for Hillary... the Bern has stalled.