Polls show Romney has solid lead in FL primary and trending upward.

[DCBob]

from TPM..

Romney +9 Sunshine State News 01/26/2012
Romney +9 Quinnipiac 01/25/2012
Romney +8 InsiderAdvantage 01/25/2012
Romney +8 Rasmussen 01/25/2012
Romney +7 Monmouth 01/24/2012
Romney +7 ARG 01/24/2012
Romney +2 CNN/Time 01/23/2012
Gingrich +5 PPP (D) 01/23/2012
Romney +2 We Ask America 01/23/2012
(draw) Cherry Communications (R) 01/23/2012
Romney +2 Quinnipiac 01/22/2012
Gingrich +9 InsiderAdvantage 01/22/2012
Gingrich +9 Rasmussen 01/17/2012
Romney +24 CNN/Time 01/16/2012

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contest/fl-pres-12-r

==========

So looks like Romney wins Florida and gets the momentum back. FL is a winner take all so that's a big pot of delegates. The next events are mostly caucauses that wont mean much. The next significant primaries are Arizona and Michigan on Feb 28. Mitt wins Michigan easily since he is considered a homeboy there. Arizona could be a challenge and might be good for Newt. Then its Super Tuesday March 6th. By then I suspect Romney will be seen as the inevitiable nominee and will capture most of the states and delagates but there are a bunch of southern states that could be competitive. If Romney does do well on SuperTues then its surely over except for what the pissed off conservatives will do if that happens. It should be entertaining.

[MineralMan]

1. Here's hoping the Tea Partiers field

a third party candidate after Romney is clearly the winner.

[DCBob]

3. That's my hope too..

If the Romney campaign team had any sense they would begin to court Teaparty types for VP like Marco Rubio. That might defuse the anger a bit.

[feat12515si]

31. +100

[bluestateguy]

2. I don't really buy it

I just don't.

Gingrich leads.

The professional polling industry is part of the establishment of which Mitt Romney is their poster boy.

[DCBob]

4. "Gingrich leads".. What do you base that on??

gut feeling??

[MjolnirTime]

6. The Tea Party picked the winners in 2010. They have picked Gingrich.

[DCBob]

9. The teaparty has lost their mojo since 2010.

Their endorsements will have minimal impact this election cycle.

[customerserviceguy]

12. While I wish you were right about that

I really don't see the tea party going flat until after November. They still have a lot of damage to do this year, the next four weeks will feature another game of chicken over the extension of UC benefits, FICA tax cut, and doc fix. I can see other such fights for the rest of the time between now and the election.

If Noot were propelled to the nomination by the tea party, and lost spectacularly, it would indeed be a total fail of mojo for the tea party. At the same time, if we replaced Republicon tea partiers in Congress with progressives (or at least Blue Dogs that were willing to go our way most of the time), it really would help the President get off to a successful second term.

[DCBob]

14. Clearly the teaparty of 2012 is not the same as the teaparty of 2010.

Fewer and fewer people identify themselves as supporting or are members of the teaparty. Mainstream GOP once enthusiastically embraced them but they are not doing that anymore. We shall see how much influence they have this coming Tuesday. I suspect Romney wins easily and the teaparty effect will be minimal.

[customerserviceguy]

18. True

But mainstream GOP'ers thought that the tea partiers could be manipulated the same way that they screwed around with the fundies. I mean, even the guy who coined the term for them was a Wall Streeter.

Yes, the country-club Pubbies saw their friends like Lisa Murkowski and Bob Bennett defeated for renomination during the nitty-gritty part of 2010, and they certainly remember the easy victories they could have had over Mike Castle in Delaware and Harry Reid in Nevada if tea partiers hadn't picked off the establishment's favorite candidates, and that has made things more than merely difficult between the two groups.

But the tea partiers did see a goodly number of victories in Congressional and even Senate races, and they now think they can get by without the three-piece suit Republicons. They don't really care that they don't have quite the popular support they had in 2009, they know that all they have to do is replace enough rich-boy Republicons in the primaries, and eventually they'll get their way. After all, that's their narrative of what happened on our side, and why the Democratic Party nominated a Barack Obama instead of another Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter. But they read history incorrectly.

This year marks the high point and subsequent wane of the tea party movement, but there's still an armageddon to come this year. The battle of Mitt vs. Noot is the ultimate expression of a party at total war with itself, we've only seen that on our side in my lifetime. It's good to have it happen to them for a change.

Another beer bet on the Florida outcome, Bob?

[DCBob]

20. Totally agree they are headed for an armageddon.

Even though the teaparty effect has waned those who are teapartiers are as mad as ever.. maybe even more so since they feel they are being ignored.

Yes, beers on Florida... you betcha!

[customerserviceguy]

22. Hey, I never drink just one!

My bartender would call an ambulance if that happened, for herself from nearly fainting!

[bluestateguy]

8. I don't buy the lies of Big Poll

So yes.

[DCBob]

10. Please check back here on Tuesday and see if your "gut" was right.

[Hippo_Tron]

16. If Gingrich believed the polls were biased, he'd release his internals

But odds are his internals also show him down.

[DCBob]

17. +1

I was about to post just that. If Newt thought the pollsters were shortchanging him Im sure he would be shouting it from the housetops. Actually Im surprised hes not doing that anyway even if its not true.. it would make a great rant.

[MjolnirTime]

5. Mitt has bought some good press, nothing more. This will only solidify the Teabaggers in opposition

If Newt isn't the front-runner,
we will see a replay of South Carolina.

He can be the 'outsider' for the Teabag masses.

[DCBob]

7. I hope the teabaggers revolt and field a 3rd party candidate.

That would the best scenario.

[oberliner]

11. It was always going to be Romney

All this nonsense is just to get the ratings up and give people a reason to tune in to these idiotic political talk shows and debates.

[customerserviceguy]

13. I still think there are a lot of Florida voters

who are simply too ashamed to tell pollsters that they're backing Noot, and will not vote for the Mormon.

Also, a full withdrawl of Santorum really does make this a two-man race, with Ron Paul as the ignored sideshow.

[DCBob]

15. The "Bradley Effect".. interesting, but I doubt it.

The polls in the other states have been relatively accurate... why would FL be any different?

[customerserviceguy]

19. I recall South Carolina showing Noot and Mitt as tied

going into last Saturday, with possibly a couple of them showing Gingrich with a lead within the statistical margin of error. Of course, it was a blowout by Noot, and the only thing I can attribute that to is indeed a Bradley effect. We just didn't see enough Gingrich voters in Iowa or New Hampshire to notice any real measurable effect, besides, the anti-Romney folks had a wide variety of candidates to indicate support for in the polls prior to those contests.

At this point, the Florida GOP voter knows it's only a two-man race, and they might just take it out on the pollsters by lying because they're a bit cranky at not having a better choice. I'm really looking hard to find a way to explain South Carolina, and this is the best I can come up with!

[DCBob]

21. I think the polls had not caught up Newt's meteoric rise.

He caught fire just a few days prior to the election. The most recent onces showed him up. PPP had him up by 9 a couple of days before the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html

[customerserviceguy]

23. Yes, there was a sudden trend at the last few days

that swept Noot from behind, to tied, to way over the top. But there are only a few days between now and Tuesday, and we'll have Sunday talking heads shows plus fundies in church on Sunday listening to their preachers between now and then. Don't you agree that if the Florida polls have shown anything since SC that wild swings (at least in polling numbers) are the norm for this ten day period, at least from what we've seen so far?

Three days is plenty of time for more swinging, and who's the ultimate swinger in this race?!

[DCBob]

24. No doubt there could be another sudden turn in the polls but not sure what would trigger that.

There are no more debates.. maybe a killer ad or Mittens says something really stupid... which he does have a prepensity to do. We shall see.

[customerserviceguy]

25. I still think that Sunday is full of events

that can change things. The Sunday morning talk shows, for example. If Mittens is on one, he can sure say something stupid, and Noot can say something that sways people his way. Also, while churches are not permitted to endorse candidates, there could be a LOT of preachers out there who realize that Rick Santorum is political dead meat, who could give sermons on how it's good to forgive adultery, but blasphemy (as practiced by cults, for example, the LDS church) is much less forgivable. The congregation will get the message.

[DCBob]

26. I will be watching tomorrow.

It could get interesting for sure. Gingrich will loaded for bear and Romney will be feeling the heat.

[customerserviceguy]

27. It drives my lady crazy when I start with

the Chris Matthews show at 10 AM. She usually finds an excuse to go to the den to watch a DVD. She mockingly calls up a "Buh Bye!" after she's heard John McLaughlin do it. Sundays in the fall are the best, talking head shows in the morning, football in the afternoon and evening!

[DCBob]

28. HA!

Tell her its only going to get worse as we get closer to November.

[customerserviceguy]

30. She knows, I've lived with her since 2007

and she really got an eye-opener four years ago!

Hey, it's not even my worse habit...

[DesertRat]

29. That may change now that Gingrich has the Cain endorsement