Reasons for the Hillary rebound? I can think of a few.

[DanTex]

First, obviously, the emails aren't in the headlines every day. It's always been a non-scandal, but a lot of people don't read past the headlines, and very few people read corrections or retractions.

Next, Bernie has probably gotten all of his low-hanging fruit: hipsters, OWSers, white dudes wearing dashikis, and so on. Basically, people who were inclined to go nuts for Bernie have gone nuts for Bernie, but now we get to see if he can make inroads outside his natural constituency.

Also, the Bernie-mania has started to become the status quo. The first few arenas that he filled up, the media (justifiably) went "OMG this Bernie guy is really firing people up" but after the first 10 or 20 big rallies, it's like, OK, Bernie is a guy that draws big crowds. He's not the new shiny toy anymore, he's now another candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Another thing, Hillary's campaign seems to have gotten a little better. Or at least it's not making as many mistakes. Things like leaking to the press that the new plan is to carefully orchestrate moments of spontaneity.

Finally, Bernie's proposals are starting to get more critical attention. For example the $18 trillion thing. Arguably, the $18T price tag is misleading (and arguably it's not, after all, the government will be spending huge amounts of money), but the thing is, this is national politics, you can't expect that the media will portray everything in the best possible light for your candidacy. For example, Hillary's emails.


Anyway, the debates are coming, and that will surely shake things up again. But Hillary looks to be firmly in the drivers seat. On CBS this weekend she did great, despite the fact that the interviewer was basically going after her the whole time, emails, Benghazi, and so on. Looking good for HRC.

[Ron Green]

1. The media did no such thing, as I recall, as respond to Bernie's big rallies. They pretty much

ignored them, and have ignored his campaign until now.

Your "low-hanging fruit" is quite a bit more diverse, and mainstream, than you allow. His "natural constituency," another curious term, is of course anyone not invested in the system of bought government under which we've been struggling for a long while.

If Hillary's campaign is getting better by moving away from its slick dissembling, that's a good thing. The problem is still that she doesn't lay out clear, principled positions that she's long held. Because there really aren't many of those that address the systemic problems.

I can't imagine that increased scrutiny of Bernie's proposals will be a boost for Hillary; you acknowledge that the WSJ piece was a lie, so therefore the truth will acquit Bernie's ideas - just as more sunshine will straighten out the Benghazi crap, the email fiasco and the other lies about your candidate.

As Oct. 13 approaches, though, I'm not so sure about that driver's seat!

[DanTex]

4. You're kidding, right? How could you have missed it?

For example, first link from google:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-does-bernie-sanders-draw-huge-crowds-to-see-him/2015/08/11/4ae018f8-3fde-11e5-8d45-d815146f81fa_story.html

The whole media story has been the Bernie is the exciting candidate drawing crowds, while Hillary is the stodgy boring candidate embroiled in a scandal.

[zappaman]

2. "Low hanging fruit"...

"Next, Bernie has probably gotten all of his low-hanging fruit: hipsters, OWSers, white dudes wearing dashikis, and so on."

Seriously, dude?

[bunnies]

3. Im sure he meant it in the nicest possible way.

So as not to offend or anything.

[OKNancy]

5. People watched the Republican debates

and started thinking... I want someone who can beat those idiots.

[DanTex]

6. Yes, that too.

[Fred Sanders]

11. The fear of voters of a Republican win may be driving voters to the familiar sanity of Clinton.

[Dawgs]

40. If they thought of Hillary then we are in a lot of trouble.

I don't see any way that she can win the general.

High disapprovals, lack of enthusiasm, and general dislike for the status quo will make it almost impossible for her to win.

[OKNancy]

46. In your world

There is enthusiasm actually. You may not see it because you hang on the internet or in your own group.
The "status quo" business is overblown. People want experience. Her disapprovals are mostly with Republicans so those would never vote for a Democrat anyway.

She will win the general handily.

[Dawgs]

49. One, the small number of DEMOCRATS that attend her events show the lack of enthusiasm.

Two, I've been to Hillary events and have seen the lack of enthusiasm first hand. And, it ain't pretty.
Three, there are Hillary supporters in "my own group" and the support for her is not very strong. Many would gladly switch to Biden if he entered the race.
Four, I haven't met anyone that cares about Hillary's experience. I have met many that are concerned about her being the status quo.
Five, her disapprovals are with Republicans, Independants, and a good number of Democrats.

She won't win the general, and it won't be close.

[OKNancy]

51. adding to my bookmarks

[Dawgs]

53. Okay. Great argument. n/t

[ram2008]

7. I don't think its a rebound, but a stemming of the bleeding

I can think of a few reasons why her polling drop has temporarily stopped:

My hunch is she stopped her dropping of support with white women and perhaps recovered some of them back with her Ellen offensive. I mean if you think of it her campaign couldn't have gotten any worse the way they were handling things, so for her to have an OK press week was a good thing. So there her softening up a bit for the cameras and being less roped off was definitely a plus and helped her connect with women voters again.

Another reason: the debates. Everyone's been talking about Republicans and how crazy they are. You have Carson and Trump talking about Muslims, Fiorina lying about her record and distorting the planned parenthood video. Then you have all the candidates calling for a defunding of planned parenthood and outlawing abortion. Any woman watching that who was not a lunatic tea-partier would instantly become repulsed and worried. Add to the fact that another woman has surged to close to the top of the polls, I think when you contrasted the craziness of the Republicans with a smiling, saner Hillary it brought them back home to her-- at least for now.

I said it before, but I believe the polling will settle around low 40's for Hillary, high 20's for Sanders, and low 20's for Biden up until the first debate.

[DanTex]

9. The recent polls indicate a rebound. Still, I agree with most of what you say.

Her campaign was making some pretty dumb moves, and they've stopped that, thankfully. I wouldn't say it's running like a fine-tuned Ferrari at this point, but they've managed to get it up to "OK" which is a big improvement from "WTF are you doing."

And yes, I agree that the Republican debates have helped Clinton, by driving home how crazy they are. It helps in a few ways. First, it helps to dispel the "Clinton is the same as the GOP" thing -- you can't watch the GOP debates and come out thinking that. And also, since Clinton is the favorite, no news is good news for her, and the focus being on Trump and the GOP has meant less news on the Democratic side, which in turn means that things sort of slide back to an equilibrium with her ahead.

I think that for Sanders to sustain anything much closer than a 20% gap requires the news to be positive about him and negative about her. His big rallies and her emails or tone-deaf campaign or whatever.

Still, the debates are coming, and there will be another shake-up, one direction or the other. Bernie's in the game now, which is more than a lot of people thought he could do. He's the underdog, but he's a player. We'll see what happens next.

[askew]

20. I think the reason for her stopping the bleeding is from the puff piece interviews

mixed with the email mess going on the backburner. The problem is the email mess is going to be back on the front page shortly with news that she lied again + the expected email dump next week.


I think the media will do its best to spin the debate as a win for Hillary no matter what. But, I think the debate combined with more email bad news at the end of October & Biden jumping into the race will finally move her numbers into the mid-20s.

[Warren DeMontague]

8. Wow, you waited until your second paragraph to insult Sanders people. Well done.

Dare I say it that Hillary has gotten all of her low hanging fruit, as well? Like the 2008 PUMA crowd, and the low-information people who think "the middle class needs a champion" constitutes a concrete policy and issue statement?

[McCamy Taylor]

37. If Sanders folks were as "hip" as they claim, they would not view these are insults.

What is wrong with being counter culture? I'm proud of being counter culture.

[Warren DeMontague]

38. You're tilting against some mighty impressive windmills you've created, there,

....In your own head.

"If sanders folks were as 'hip' as they claim"..... Yes, because liking Bernie Sanders is all about being "hip"... Has nothing to do with, oh, WHAT THE MAN IS ACTUALLY FUCKING SAYING, no sir.

Take me for intance. I have a god-damn grateful dead bernie sanders avatar. What could possibly be more "hip" than devotion to a band whose lead guitarist died 20 years ago?

It's all about staying current, see.

Maybe you should stop and think about that for a minute- is it possible some have become so inured to branding and marketing and liking the action of presenting the support of what a candidate's imagery represents as to what it says about themselves- the selfie-ization of politics, perhaps?- that they've forgotten that it's actually about real political decisions and leadership and issues and where we as Americans want this country to go?

That they cant even conceive of people supporting someone like Bernie Sanders not because of what they feel being a Sanders supporter says to the world about them and their identity, but rather because they actually want the guy in the White House as an executive --- who signs laws?


Hmmm. Just a thought.

Beyond that, my problem with the so-called insults isnt that they hurt my fee fees, so much as they're just ridiculously out of touch, sort of like, uh... hillary's campaign.

So yes, if some of us Sanders people are old out of touch freedom rockers ("turn it up, man! No, seriously, im sort of deaf, so turn it up&quot at least we're "hip" enough to know that there is a hip --- and we sure as fuck aint it.

... And it also aint running around wearing dashikis, the very last of which i believe was sold from a thrift store in Soho somewheres about 1975.

We (those of us on DU, of course, which skews pretty fuckin old by internet standards) know we're not millennials but at least we understand they exist and have issues they care about and they VOTE, yes they do.

Hillary's camp?

Pffffffffffft.

[DanTex]

43. Hipsters and hippies. Deadheads would fall into the second category.

Hipsters are the younger people you see at Bernie rallies. You know, the guys with skinny jeans and handlebar mustaches. The hippies are the ones in the tie dyes and the grey hair. Not too hard to tell them apart.

[Warren DeMontague]

59. and again

you seem to think it's some sort of a pose.

Which is ironic coming from the people who can't actually come up with a whole lot of policy reasons to support Sec. Clinton, but instead like Hillary™ because she's Hillareeeeeee™ and we need Hillarreeeeeeeeee™ because supporting Hillaryyyy™ is all about the excitement of supporting Hillareeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee™!

Speaking of which, I'm not sure you guys really want to go down the road of yukking it up with the mockery. That road goes two directions, Jacko.

[cyberswede]

72. Which Sanders supporters claim to be "hip," specifically?

[Fred Sanders]

10. The Keystone pipeline announcement today....you could hear the air going out of some balloons.

[cascadiance]

54. And she or Obama likely will throw up their hands and sign a Keystone pipeline bill later...

... after the ISDS courts that get put in place by TPP are used by Transcanada threaten to grab billions of dollars from us unless we get it approved. Then Obama (if he's still in power) or Hillary will throw up their hands and say their hands are tied by these court decisions where they have to get Keystone Pipeline approved to avoid that horrendous debt. This of course would be the same TPP that Obama has pushed harder than any other legislation, and Hillary is very nebulous on her understanding and stance on it (despite selling it to other countries as SOS).

Bernie could read what was happening and stood solidly against the TPP consistently where Obama, Hillary and their Republican and DINO friends didn't take stances against this corporatist government power takeover effort. THAT is why Bernie Sanders is the consistent and complete solution to avoid putting fossil fuel crap like Keystone being put in place.

[Fred Sanders]

56. Deflated balloons are no fun to play with at all, I get it.

[cascadiance]

57. What balloon is deflated? I think the balloon of TPP is still about ready to be popped!

And a lot of people are going to be PO'd with the after effects of that, and will blame those who pushed it in the general election. Yes, the corporatist candidates aren't going to relish the effects of playing with the TPA/TPP "Free Trade" balloon with the American public who is SICK of being screwed by corporate America. Wish Hillary supporters would explain why we should not be concerned about ISDS courts and those who pushed them on us!

[kenfrequed]

58. I was too "distracted" to notice

Her coming out against it was hardly full-throated and left an opening you could park a truck into.

[Capn Sunshine]

12. It's because Summer's over

and with it the romantic notions of the perfect dreamy candidate, whether it be a former Senator and Secretary of State, or a sitting Senator who knows what excites people.

With the end of summer comes the serious contemplation of work and all that entails, and summer romance dissipates.

Now comes the work.

I feel like that guy on Game of Thrones who keeps repeating "Winter is Coming"

[MindfulOne]

13. There's another dollar in my Bernie Sanders donation jar.

For every ridiculous claim that Bernie's not all that, has plateaued, has a problem with POC or a gun control problem, etc., the jar gets another dollar.

Ka-Ching!

Thank you!

[oasis]

14. Add another buck for this: Barney's refusal of super pac money

will put him at a huge disadvantage in the GE.

No need reply with another "ka-Ching". You're automatically on the Internet honor system.

[MindfulOne]

15. That's the conventional wisdom, but....

At a certain point, unless there's a lot of skeletons in the closet, things to go negative about, money for negative ads has a saturation point after which more money is less effective.

Bernie wins on characteristics that aren't media dependent.

He needs exposure, true, but unless the opposition comes up with a likable candidate, Bernie can win on a shoestring budget.

[oasis]

19. If he's the nominee, let's hope it's enough. <nt>_

[Cali_Democrat]

16. "white dudes wearing dashikis, and so on."

LOL! Stop it!

[oasis]

17. I can't wait for the Democratic Convention.

[Capn Sunshine]

30. I'm getting a dashiki booth

and I'll sell tie dyed stuff too.

To reflect my own wardrobe.

[Fawke Em]

23. I think it should be alerted on.

It's offensive to more than half of DU since I'm willing to bet many of us don't fit any of those categories.

I don't.

[askew]

18. The emails are going to come back again.

There is another data dump of them at the end of next week. There are multiple ongoing FOIA suits against State Dept and her that have deadlines soon. The FBI is actively investigating.

Oh, and she just got caught in another lie today:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/state-departments-account-of-e-mail-request-differs-from-clintons/2015/09/22/54cd66bc-5ed9-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html

Everyone of these lies just starts up another investigation where more lies are found.

No amount of flip-flops or fluff interviews will fix this.

[Capn Sunshine]

32. You do understand the only reason the FBI is"actively investigating"

is because a RW nut job congressman requested it, and the FBI is required by law to pursue an investigation at the request of any member of congress?

[askew]

36. You are 100% wrong.

The IG referred the case to the FBI because he found classified material in Hillary's emails that should never have been on her server.

[whatchamacallit]

21. Yes, Bernie's maxed out now that all the nuts have been collected...

I fear for people with your level of denial, Hillary's defeat is going to be soul crushing...

[DanTex]

22. If Hillary loses to the GOP, that will be a bad day. We agree on that.

[Fawke Em]

24. And she may.

She's about as exciting as a wet mop.

Wet mops don't draw large turnouts.

[DanTex]

25. I've noticed that the people who hate her ultimately just don't like her personality.

They claim it's about policy, but that's obviously a farce.

[Fawke Em]

26. I don't like either.

I think she's a corporate-owned war hawk, too.

I agree with her on social issues (now that she's evolved on some of them).

I think it's perfectly normal to dislike several aspects of a person.

[whatchamacallit]

34. It's about everything

The sum of their words, deeds, and attitudes form our impression of the candidate. It's not a single aspect, it's the perceived totality. For me Hillary, doesn't add up.

[Dawgs]

41. I'm concerned about your ability to use logic.

It's possible that people can not like her for both reasons. In fact, I don't like her for about six.

[MoveIt]

45. DanTex knows why everyone does not like his horrible candidate!

[DCBob]

27. As I have said many times I think the email fake scandal has run its course.

It could be resurrected when the next batch is released but I think unless there is some bombshell discovery it wont have much impact.

[pinebox]

28. And meanwhile right now, Bernie is standing with strikers

And while your candidate just today announced she opposes KXL after long supporting it, (Shocker! Where was she several months ago?) Bernie is walking the picket lines. http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/22/bernie-sanders-joins-rally-of-striking-federal-workers-to-call-for-wage-increase/?_r=0

Senator Bernie Sanders, the Democratic presidential candidate, is using the pope’s visit to Washington to amplify his call for a wage increase for federal workers.

The independent senator from Vermont joined a rally of striking government workers on Tuesday at the Lutheran Church of the Reformation in Washington, and pressed Congress and President Obama to heed Pope Francis’ call for social and economic justice. Comparing the federal government to a low-wage employer such as Walmart or McDonald’s, he said, “there is no justice when so few have so much and so many have so little.”

Mr. Sanders was joining a call to raise the minimum wage for federal workers to $15 an hour and give them the right to unionize. Last year the Obama administration raised the minimum wage for federal contract employees aseto $10.10.

Capitol workers sent a letter to Pope Francis last week explaining that many of them are homeless and cannot afford health care because of their low wages.

For Mr. Sanders, the rally was an opportunity to use the pope’s visit to promote an important part of his political platform: income inequality. His brief remarks drew enthusiastic cheers from the mostly black and Hispanic workers who packed the church near the Capitol.

“The United States of America is the richest country in the history of the world,” Mr. Sanders said, “but most of the people do not feel that because most of the wealth and most of the income is going to the people at the top.”

[Scootaloo]

29. Where'd you find the latest three trillion?

Last week it was only fifteen trillion.

[DanTex]

31. Try to pay attention. 15 is the single payer alone. 18 is the total. It's not complicated.

[Scootaloo]

33. It was $15 last week, DanTex. And you were thoroughly corrected then.

Can't wait to see what you peel off WorldNetDaily next

[DanTex]

42. 18 total, 15 for single payer alone. Not sure what the WND thing is about,

but given that you have trouble telling numbers apart, I can probably guess.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251595743

[Capn Sunshine]

35. That's not accurate anyway

The figures are based on a CBO backed study regarding a proposed universal healthcare bill- H.R. 676, introduced in 2013 by Rep. John Conyers. Gerald Friedman, a labor economist at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, conducted the analysis.

Two years ago, more or less, and we know what has happened to healthcare costs in the interim time.

What is continually ignored by throwing that figure around is the approximately 42 trillion in costs savings over the same period.

As we have stated before, no proposal put forth by a candidate would be by the same logic, "candidate proposes 42 trillion healthcare cost for American people"

The 3 trillion is also based on a CBO guess of infrastructure repair, and seems to be generally accepted. The resulting job stimulus and GNP growth is not put forth.

[delrem]

39. Hillary had a rebound?

It hasn't been pure accelerating downhill craziness?
She hit a bump?

Wheeeeee!

[DanTex]

44. True, you'd never know it from the DU echo chamber. Here everyone is convinced that

Bernie is way ahead, and the polls showing otherwise are all "skewed". I wonder, after Clinton wins the nomination, will people still think that Bernie is ahead?

[Bonobo]

47. What an angry little hippie-puncher you have revealed yourself to be. nt

[DanTex]

48. Another non-sequitur personal attack! I like hippies, and am nonviolent.

[m-lekktor]

55. your OP is nothing but one big personal attack for fuck sake.

you use the right wing caricature of leftists to attack Bernie supporters and you complain of the personal attacks in the responses of the people you mock? jesus christ get the fuck over yourself already. you GET what you GIVE!

[cascadiance]

62. So did you say this about Obama last time when he was FARTHER BEHIND than Bernie is now...

... in the polls? Should he just have "packed it in" then because she was "inevitable" then the way the corporate media and other corporatist groups wanted us to believe then?

[Armstead]

50. Okay That's it. You are a narrow minded buffoon Rush wannabe

Every time you seem to indicate that you have a brain and a slightly open mind,, you come up with this kind of shit.

"all of his low-hanging fruit: hipsters, OWSers, white dudes wearing dashikis, and so on. Basically, people who were inclined to go nuts for Bernie have gone nuts for Bernie, but now we get to see if he can make inroads outside his natural constituency."

That;s the most stereotypical bunch of right-wing cultural and political bigotry I've seen in a long time.

It's one thing to have a sense of humor. But that kind of crap is just Rush in drag. Maybe we should start mimicking your parroting of Limbaughian hyperbole by calling Hillary supporters "feminazis."

[Blus4u]

64. You pretty much nailed it, Armstead.

The OP must stay dizzy from trying to maintain the spin.

[Bonobo]

65. You speak for me as well.

An offensive jerk in the mold of a poor man's Limbaugh.

[MoveIt]

66. This persona's "Tex" is reminiscent of yosemite sam

The best grass roots support money can buy! now with per-region tuneable flame-settings.

[m-lekktor]

69. all he does is personal attacks using every right wing caricature of liberals there is

then he howls in protest when he gets a personal attack in response.

[RandySF]

52. I can think of another

Bernie filled a vacuum as alternative candidates do in every presidential cycle. He may have peaked already.

[Armstead]

60. Maybe, but if so that really sucks

That's why we keep repeating the same old movie in which the sequals get worse and worse.

And the cumulative damage becomes fairly evident over time as corporate status quo policies decimate the nation;s economic health, moral standards and drive down the quality of life and keep environmentally destructive policies intact.

The seeds of the increasing economic pressure than a majority of people are being threatened by had its seeds in the "What Me Worry" 80's and 90s.

[RandySF]

61. The most productive thing we can do

Is take back Congress, state legislatures and courts. We sometimes get so fixated on the White House that we miss where the most damage is being done.

[Warren DeMontague]

63. Those are some funny jokes. You should send them out to the email list of Hillary's supporters

you know, it's the one with all the "aol.com" addresses.

[arely staircase]

67. K&R nt

[MohRokTah]

68. You left out "Bern Out"

[John Poet]

70. DEAD CAT BOUNCE.

Even a dead cat will bounce, if they drop far enough.

[cyberswede]

71. Yes, her carefully orchestrated spontaneity must be helping.

You forgot Volvo-driving, latte-drinking low hanging fruit.