Hillary down to 33% in TWO polls

[jfern]

Note that her actual support is still probably somewhat higher than 33%.

Bloomberg poll:
Clinton 33
Biden 25
Sanders 24
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-09-23/bloomberg-poll-joe-biden-now-top-presidential-choice-for-1-in-4-democrats

Reuters poll:
Clinton 33
Sanders 30
Biden 14
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/09/23/1424266/-Did-someone-say-bounce-NAT-Rolling-Poll-HRC-33-BERNIE-30-BFD-14

[randys1]

1. THen the GOP and Karl Rove attacks are working

[daleanime]

3. Because there's no other possible reason....

[saturnsring]

4. the reason is her percentages are being diluted by biden - who for some reason

(hmmmm I wonder what that could be) is included when he's not running . take out biden and she's over 50%

[Ed Suspicious]

10. It's funny that both of us hate the Biden effect. My hatred is for a different reason than yours.

[daleanime]

19. That's only if she draws all of his support....

and that's not a given.

[magical thyme]

33. you apparently didn't look at the Reuters poll:

Biden is at 14%. She doesn't make 50% even if she got all of Biden's 14%. Which she likely wouldn't.

[roguevalley]

38. how do people who could have chosen her but refused go back to her if Biden goes? I don't get it.

[magical thyme]

42. the same way anybody has a 2nd choice.

Personally, I don't understand how anybody could choose her now, but that's me.

I would have voted for her in a heartbeat some years ago, but not any more. I cannot overlook her record.

[randys1]

5. The GOP , Karl Rove and others have been working on this for years.

It is real easy for some sincere Bernie supporters to get confused.

They see Hillary as this corporate candidate and Bernie as the people's candidate, and to some extent this is true, but the confusion comes in as to what the OTHER side is doing and why.

The OTHER side is trying to destroy Hillary so they can take over ALL of the government.

then watch the fuck out...

[daleanime]

17. So, that's yes, there are no other possible reasons......

sorry for being a poor deluded Bernie supporter.

[Roy Ellefson]

25. dumb

this stupid meme has really been circulating a lot lately...Bernie supporters are simply being used by the right wing. complete and utter nonsense...especially when it is Hillary's supporters that are being used by the right wing...she is un-electable.

[840high]

27. Bernie supporters are not

confused. Look in the mirror.

[FreakinDJ]

30. WRONG - they knew Biden would peel off Hillary support

Not quite the Bernie Support conspiracy some were looking for

[FreakinDJ]

36. Head in the sand much

[Indepatriot]

35. Thanks so much for clearing that up...

[saturnsring]

2. why is biden on there he's not running and when he announces that he isnt hillary will pick up the

biden voters

[HereSince1628]

7. Biden's on there because the public is very interested in how he might do.

And the answer to that is with Biden in, the democratic primary becomes competitive in a way that is much more typical of democratic primaries 14 months from the GE

[saturnsring]

9. but he's not running and therefore shouldnt be included - this is a deliberate attempt to dilute

her lead -

[HereSince1628]

11. There is a deliberate attempt to provide readers with things they are interested in

that's what sells advertising which is -the business plan- that drives professional media.

It's quite likely that the millions H> is spending on polling has already revealed these same things. And that information is very likely already used to develop guidance for surrogates, as well as messaging with the public.

Knowing some of the 'hidden' information is important to meaningful understanding of the plays that the campaigns make.

There is really no reason why while people with recreational interest in politics shouldn't have similar information.

[roguevalley]

39. again, how do voters who didn't pick her go back to her. they want someone else too

[HereSince1628]

41. you think you are asking me something again? What's with that?

My comments were about polling that included Biden, and why Biden might be included even when he's not announced.

[99Forever]

28. Take your complaint up with the pollsters.

But more to the point, keep in mind, each and every poll posted here is done so by someone with an agenda. Take all of them with a 🚚 load of salt.

[DCBob]

6. The reuters one is odd.

If you look at the trend for that one Hillary was way up then way down then way up again then way down again. It doesn't make sense.

[OilemFirchen]

8. Sanders losing to Clinton and a non-candidate in TWO polls.

Embarrassing, I should think.

[HereSince1628]

12. Not really, it's still possible to see Sanders as rising,

There have been a few running averages that included lower polls, once the high outlier for late Aug was out, those lower polls have dragged a steady, albeit modest rise of 4-5% for sanders across the polls of Sep.

A 5 percent rise per month would put Sanders even or better with Clinton by the end of Dec. That's probably exactly where Sanders needs to be preparing to take advantage of a surge coming out of NH.

[OilemFirchen]

14. Nah.

Assuming a linear graph, if Biden stays in then he outpaces Sanders. If Biden doesn't, then even 15 points isn't going to narrow the gap sufficiently.

[HereSince1628]

24. With undecided disappearing and Biden in, the null becomes is 33.333

anyone doing better will be forced to mean at least one candidates goes down.

So things which are curvilinear won't be likely to maintain projections of their current rates of change.

Unless all the slopes go zero, which is very unlikely, we're getting to the sorting out phase.

[Schema Thing]

13. certainly not to a sensible person.

[OilemFirchen]

15. ? (n/t)

[reformist2]

26. What's embarrassing is how many Hillary supporters would jump ship if Biden sailed by.

[stevil]

16. Read the DailyKos diary again

And then check the comments. Those results include ALL likely voters, not just Democrats. Apart from that it is a great rolling poll to bookmark and tweak by playing with the filters.

[cascadiance]

20. Perhaps that is why the Reuter's poll in DKOS has a lot more Bernie support in it...

... since Bernie appeals more to independents that will likely in the coming year become registered Democrats to vote for Bernie in the primary.

[Motown_Johnny]

21. Some states have open primaries.

But your point is well taken.


I don't think Bernie is within 3 points either, not yet at least.

[DCBob]

22. Ah that explains it.

Thanks for clarifying.

[kenn3d]

18. ... individual national polls will drive you crazier than you already are just being here on DU

Trying to define the current state of the race for the Democratic nomination using individual national polls will drive you crazier than you already are just being here on DU.

Probably the best aggregate national poll picture can be seen on the RealClearPolitics composite chart here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

Current Averages are:
Clinton 41.6
Sanders 25.8
(Biden 20.8)
Current spread is Clinton +15.8 (an all-time low)

But of course Biden numbers are wrecking what little sense can be made of all this anyway.
It's mostly entertainment for the politically challenged imo. The state primaries and caucuses are what matter. And Biden in or out will be crucial to the fate of the party.

Anything can happen... So support your candidate and GOTV!

[Fred Sanders]

31. Biden is also being attacked for being imperfect - by the same ones who are attacking Clinton!

And also attacking both are....drumroll please..... the GOP!

Funny, that.

[jkbRN]

23. Love this news!

[RandySF]

29. And without Biden?

[Persondem]

34. filtered to "likely democratic primary voters"

It's HRC 45%, Sanders 24%, Biden 19% ... of course that sample is strangely small at only 22% of the total sample. This seems to be a rather worthless effort as far as the primaries are concerned. They even included Cuomo and Gillibrand for some odd reason.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

40. It's a start. Bernie has a long way to go, but stunts by Clinton and her supporters keep helping.

She'll be begging for more debates soon.