Clinton, Sanders and the Biden effect

[Godhumor]

Since 8/28, polls without Biden have the following results for Clinton and Sanders:

55-20
52-23
54-24
52-24
49-28

When Biden is polled the results for Clinton and Sanders looks like this (Same time period):

44-25
44-24
42-20
37-27
48-21
42-28
42-24
47-27
45-26
46-25
41-29
42-24
33-24

Clearly there are a few outliers included, but the point remains the same. If Biden runs, his support comes at the expense of Clinton. If he doesn't run, Clinton receives a bump in support. Sanders, regardless of scenario is remarkably consistent in the mid 20s.

What does it mean?

Biden can not depend on drawing support from Sanders' backers.

There is a limited well that he can pull from Clinton.

Sanders has reached a pretty firm plateau in support at this stage in the game and needs Biden to siphon enough support from Clinton to get closer to the front runner.

But to pull that much support from Clinton means Biden will be running neck and neck with Sanders.

If Biden doesn't run, Clinton's cushion is still in the mid to high 20s.

In conclusion, Joe needs to make up his god damn mind.

(All poll numbers taken from Pollster)

[Agnosticsherbet]

1. I think Biden is still out there because people are worried that Clinton will hit sometthing she can

not overcome.

Biden's heart does not seem to be in it.

[Scootaloo]

2. Agreed

Biden really only has one demographic - Current Clinton supporters who support her as an "heir to Obama." He's not going to win over the people who want Hillary for Hillary - they're a very loyal crowd. And he's not going to win over the left, either - his policy positions are mostly identical to Clinton's, except where they're actually worse.

He ends up being Hillary Clinton, without Hillary's supporters. This isn't a place he wants to be, especially as an incumbent VP - nothing's quite so bad as coming in as sitting VP, and bowing out before the fourth caucus.

[HereSince1628]

6. Seems to me Biden will get people who want something other than Sanders or Clinton

It's the soft supporters of Clinton, the undecideds, and the 'back into the process' that Sanders must draw on to win the nomination.

Most of the soft support of Clinton seems to break to Biden. Biden is a safe haven for those voters and prevents them from going to Sanders. That significantly limits the pool of available voters at first glance which assumes the pool is fixed in size

The undecideds seem to be reaching a plateau in the polling, with some polls having them increasing in conservative parts of the country. Possibly due to the unacceptability of the republican options.

Primary participation is typically has the lowest of all voter participation, a few percent change increasing voters in many primaries and caucuses can turn into a huge thing. So another phenomenon to consider is who is causing enthusiasm. Sanders clearly has that advantage at this time.


The mood of the country doesn't seem to be dominated by favor for the status quo. It feels restless and wanting change.
But that change isn't focused on wanting to make history with the first woman president, enthusiasm for that seems lower than in 2007-8.

Biden represents status quo policies of Obama, it's arguable if Obama's popularity is transferable. Looking back at the last century VPs who didn't reach incumbency through crisis have struggled as first term candidates. The sample size is small so it's hard to speak of patterns, but the lack of pattern shows no clear advantage to Biden.

[Godhumor]

8. It is extremely fair to say that Biden's "market" is the steady as it goes voters

They naturally gravitate to Clinton as the closest approximation to the last 8 years, and they will stay with her if Biden doesn't enter. The question is how deep is that pool before you hit the core of people who support Hillary specifically.

[HereSince1628]

9. Another effect of Biden in it bolsters the message on the right, by taking out OMalley

OMalley really took a hit in the most recent polling with Biden in.

Even without a serious threat of Biden to win, loss of OMalley's voice which hits mostly progressive notes would mean more centrist positions discussed by pundits and showing up on the news

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

3. I agree. Sanders has a better chance of winning against a split Decaf Dem vote.

[djean111]

4. I sure won't vote for a more affable Third Wayer corporatist over Bernie.

Take that to the bank.
Bernie's supporters are about issues, not whether we would like to have a beer with the candidate, or use the same household products. Evidently that is really hard to grasp for some people.

[restorefreedom]

5. biden is insurance

if she continues to tank or if the fbi finds anything in the emails that the republicans can run with.

with or without joe, bernie will take this

[HereSince1628]

7. Getting a candidate's name on ballots is a big deal

The deadlines for participating with a name on the ballot begin to pop up in November. As a campaign doesn't want to get caught by some technicality in their filing these things aren't left until the last moment. Biden really only has until late Oct to work on those filing requirements



Running write-in campaigns presents another hurdle that must be overcome and requires great enthusiasm and commitment. An insurance candidate seems unlikely to carry off those things in the face of losing their first choice to some bad event.

The whole idea of insurance is somewhat dubious.

A scandal knocking down Clinton would be very badly received by her supporters. A fraction of committed H> supporters who again may go PUMA would challenge the effectiveness of Biden as insurance. In the primaries and caucuses turnout is low to very low, so just a fractional change could be a big deal...

.

[restorefreedom]

10. and apparently not cheap either

to get on a ballot

and I don't necessarily think that HE considers himself insurance, I think if he runs he's gonna run because he really wants it. But there's no question in my mind that the establishment DNC would like another candidate in there so that when Hillary finishes her downward slide, there's someone else besides Bernie or O'Malley or Chafee, all of whom would be completely unacceptable to establishment dems.

and I do agree that dissatisfied voters might be inclined to stay home and protest depending on how upset they are. And that could make a difference

[ismnotwasm]

11. I just doubt he'll run

A part of me thinks the whole thing is some sort of political gamesmanship, because it doesn't make entire sense. Perhaps he was truly mulling over a run, but now it seems more a rumor

[riversedge]

12. Thanks for taking the time to pull these numbers together.