How many "inevitability points" do you think are built in to Hillary's poll numbers?

[reformist2]

I wouldn't be surprised if a good 10-12 points of her 45% support level nationwide are tied to a "she's probably going to be the candidate so why rock the boat" kind of mentality. Once the boat has been tipped over, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see a total collapse in her support, with national numbers like 45% Sanders, 30% Biden, 25% Clinton.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

1. Yes there has been a lot of that

People are pro Bernie but have been worried about him not being able to win. Now things are changing. People are getting to know him more and are more confident. Not just Democrats.

[Maedhros]

2. As many as she can buy. [n/t]

[leftofcool]

3. LMAO!

[Fawke Em]

4. My hunch is that it will start turning after the first debate.

She's not a very good debater - when she's asked a question that backs her up, she starts with that sharp laugh and then her already flat vowels sound REALLY flat and she gets all nasally.

[upaloopa]

5. I have seen some fishing expeditions but

yours tops them all.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. Didn't you say something similar when people pointed out

that Hillary's numbers were beginning to drop a few months ago?

Didn't one of them go something like:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026870386#post23

^snip^

"So how many months will it take for Bernie to make up a 47 point deficit? I guess Hillary will be real afraid then. I think it will take an eternity so I doubt this OP has any relevance."




Well it looks like he has made up about 30 points of that deficit. Hardly an eternity has passed since June 20th when that was posted. So now we ask how long it will take him to make up that last 17%. Maybe he will never make them up. Maybe Hillary will do terribly in the debates and when testifying before Congress and her numbers will decline even faster. No way to know right now. Only time will tell. Lets check back around Thanksgiving and see where things are.

[reformist2]

13. I think this idea of "inevitability points" gets to the heart of what is going on here.

[jeff47]

6. That is why Sanders has been focusing on IA and NH

His main handicap is "I like him but he can't win". Win those, and "He can't win" starts ringing hollow. It also does a great deal of damage to the "inevitable" argument.

If he can successfully ramp up the NV and SC operations, then Clinton's in deep shit. Both "inevitable" and "can't win" would be gone, and Clinton would look like a loser going into Super Tuesday.

(I have absolutely no idea why the Clinton campaign was dumb enough to run on "inevitable" a second time.)

[reformist2]

7. You can't spell inevitable without "evita"?

[pscot]

8. Half

We're a nation of chalk players.

[virtualobserver]

9. I think that 25% is in fact her floor

[pscot]

11. That sounds about right

[Motown_Johnny]

10. No way to know for sure.

It would seem that the 20% or so that she has dropped was just soft support from people who figured she was sure to win so they may as well tell the pollster that she had their support.


How many more are left in that 45% or so that she has left is unknowable.

It seems that the movement in the polls has slowed and people may now be waiting for at least one debate before switching support, or firming up the soft support they now have.


Time will tell. It is still early.

[artislife]

14. You mean like last time? nt