2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf you think Trump is a joke candidacy I need you to wake the fuck up right now
This is not a joke. This is a candidate with stronger fundamentals going in than either Clinton or Sanders.
I'm Team O'Malley which means I'm used to being mostly on my own here. But I really, really need people to wake up.
Trump is not a joke. Trump is an actual possible candidate, and we have to be able to beat him.
I don't care if your preferred way of beating him is Clinton's immense experience, Sanders's integrity and freshness, or O'Malley's substantive chewing on issues that often get ignored. Frankly I don't even care if it's Webb's revised LBJ plan or Chaffee's metricism.
Donald Trump is an abomination of nature, and we all must do everything within our power to keep him from the Presidency.
Period.
RKP5637
(67,102 posts)on IMO. I thought he was a serious contender from day 1. And, I think a Trump presidency would usher in an era that most Americans will regret, the full and entire corporatization of America.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)I think he has perfected a public buffoon act and laughs at everyone who buys his crap at face value.
God help us all...
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Same God damned playbook.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)Fair enough
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)that is a much better stepping stone than "reality TV star".
I think Any of the three D candidates will beat him like a $3 mule. But JEB! will be the nominee anyway
Recursion
(56,582 posts)If JEB is the GOP nominee I have much fewer fears, personally.
Response to Doctor_J (Reply #57)
genwah This message was self-deleted by its author.
genwah
(574 posts)totally batshit crazy We forget that Reagan was awful but the party was still sane
?t=2m16skelliekat44
(7,759 posts)Either Bernie or Hillary or both need to come out and refute and explain what his tax proposals really mean. He pushes the "death tax" just like all the others and people who will never have to pay one cent of this tax love the idea of getting rid of the death tax without realizing what it actually is.
dougolat
(716 posts)Even some of his supporters would see the significance of his admissions.
Mass
(27,315 posts)Details of his tax plans are coming out and it is pretty much the same plan as Bush (that we all pretty much called a boondoggle for the wealthy, and justly). So, no, Trump is not raising taxes on the rich. He is lowering taxes for them to 25 % (and probably less for some).
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)cascadiance
(19,537 posts)... but, he IS part of that ownership class, making Bernie the only candidate running without either being part of or being owned by the ownership class. Unfortunately, that message still isn't getting through to a lot of Republicans who are drawn to him on the false message that he would be a "revolution" because he's not "owned" by other corporate special interests like the other Republican candidates are.
Ultimately, through debates, etc. someone like Bernie would be able to take him down for all Americans, not just Democrats, as the person they are looking for that will be the leader we need to stop the ownership of our government and society by the "ownership class", and that Trump, though himself not being controlled by others' money, is still a part of that mess that needs to be taken down. Hillary won't be able to give that message, and still many Republicans will buy that Trump is more independent of this money game than she is, even if he will still use his own money to achieve pushing the rules to work in his and his friends' favor, rather than the 99%'s favor.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Not to go Godwin or anything, but history has seen this before.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)I was around when Reagan was dismissed and tried to warn people. The last thing I want to do is live through it again!
I can't figure out why Clinton encouraged him.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)"That worn out old actor?"
We ignore him at our peril.
demwing
(16,916 posts)And will dilute Bernie's message.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)There are many possible answers and none of them make Clinton look good.
demwing
(16,916 posts)Trump is playing to the stereotype of the ugly Republican, and is purposefully driving the clown car off the damned cliff.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)But why would Clinton think encouraging such an action would ultimately benefit our country and it's people and our standing in the world?!
demwing
(16,916 posts)Last edited Mon Sep 28, 2015, 03:15 PM - Edit history (1)
which would definitely benefit the coutry
haikugal
(6,476 posts)m-lekktor
(3,675 posts)ZM90
(706 posts)I think we need to nominate the new FDR (Sanders) in order to beat the new Reagan (Trump). That is just my opinion of course. But yeah Trump is dangerous....I figure Bernie can beat him though and I doubt Bernie would underestimate him.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The political market is like the stock market. You sell when everybody is buying and you buy when everybody is selling. If you own Trump stock you should have sold it weeks ago as that was the highest it will ever be.
Jeroen
(1,061 posts)But frankly, I don't think Trump will ever be POTUS.
I for see an event that prevents that from happening.
Obviously, it's not something one writes about on the Internet.
RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)What they will do, however, is use him to scare us into voting for their corporatist candidate of choice.
Jeroen
(1,061 posts)That said, I don't believe that Trump is 'used' for some hidden agenda.
This seems to be personal. I would not be surprised if Trump is motivated by President Obama Roasts of Trump At the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
It's clear though that Trump is doing a lot a damage to the GOP candidates.
So if your theory is right, we could expect to see a charismatic, smart, conservative 'outsider' coming into play soon.
Trump making the way for the TPB's choice?
Armstead
(47,803 posts)At least Reagan was a governor.
But Trump seems to figure out new ways to lower the bar ever further.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)JackInGreen
(2,975 posts)Told by the hangman, placing the noose, assuring you this'll be terrific.
I don't think I've ever wanted to see someone publicly removed from play worse.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)You are very right there.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)electing the candidate who is currently beating Trump by 20 points. The people will choose a sane, rational candidate who has crossover appeal given the choice.
Trump is an idiot, he doesn't stand a chance of even winning the Primary. Bush most likely will be given that job as the Bushes always are. Bernie beats him also.
nxylas
(6,440 posts)And Clinton only beats him by 2.7%, hardly a comfortable margin. Biden beats him by 8.6%, but Biden isn't running as yet (they don't have matchup data for any of the other Dem candidates vs Trump).
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)both Trump and Carson by a large margin also. I haven't seen a poll yet where Trump beats Bernie.
As I said, Trump doesn't stand a chance of winning this election. He's the distraction for the media to make sure no one talks about important issues.
Voters apparently reject him, other than the usual marginal bigots etc, which won't win him or anyone else, an election. As more Repubs drop out others will begin to rise and soon there will be no more Trump.
Meantime our wonderful media has given all the free coverage anyone could wish for and still he can't beat Bernie Sanders.
0rganism
(23,937 posts)i can't think of a safer state for Republicans outside the deep south. if Sanders can win there he can win anywhere.
nxylas
(6,440 posts)Here are two:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_90315.pdf (see question 30)
I post these not to boost Trump, but as a warning against complacency.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Sanders. I agree we shouldn't get complacent, but when you look at the wall to wall coverage Trump is getting as opposed to Bernie on the MSM, conventional wisdom says Trump should be the one with the 20 point lead over Bernie in the latest NH poll, rather than the other way around.
So with all the advantages he has, even in that early poll, he isn't trending UP wrt to Bernie, he is sinking fast.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He does not want to be president and will be out of contention in a month or two.
Sadly, there are candidates on the Republican even worse than Trump who actually do have a good chance of getting the nomination.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)in a Union election to gain power which allowed for the merger of his agent's MCA agency with Universal Studios to form MCA/Universal. After that he was twice elected Governor of California. He was a proven political commodity, a repeat winner of elections. Anyone who thought he was a joke was not paying any attention.
And who fell for Reagan? Two of the candidates you promote here today, Webb and Chafee. Also Elizabeth Warren and so many so called Democrats that his electoral map is virtually the map of the US.
'I don't like either of them' does not really make them similar.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)I was there when Reagan was stumping for Goldwater and making a name for himself in 1964. I was still in high school but saw him speak in San Francisco. I was warning people that he would run for gov. which he did...afterward it was clear to me he would run for the presidency and I was warning everyone he would win, which he did...EVERYONE laughed at me and said it was a joke. They couldn't believe that people would vote for an actor!
Were you there?
Treat any of the clown car as a joke and we let our guard down...do not underestimate them.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Personally, I don't think Trump is interested in the job, only in his brand.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)However he'd do photo ops....
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He also had run for president in 1976 and did quite well in some of the primaries.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Texin
(2,594 posts)I actually started out with the premise that Trump's "candidacy" was just a publicity stunt - one that he's pulled about every couple of years since 2008, when be began promoting his reality show. He'd do this every summer during a presidential election prior to the announcement by NBC whether they'd renew the show's contract.
I thought that he was doing that this year simply because the show's ticket was punched by NBC and he didn't have anything better to amuse himself with. I believe his skyrocketing rise in the GOP polls surprised him and he's stuck with it because it simply continues to amuse him. I keep thinking that he'll get bored, and he may be arriving at that point now, because he seems to have plateaued. But I do believe he's partaken of the Kool-Aid and not only likes the attention, believes that he can wield some significant power. And I'm not sure he's wrong about that.
One caution I'd throw out about Trump, though, is simply that everyone laughed derisively about Arnold Schwarzenegger's run for the governorship of California. That seemed like a joke at the time, too, but he won that contest - and so did Jesse Ventura in Minnesota (and I'd classify Trump more in the category of these guys than in Reagan). As a voter in Texas (where my vote doesn't count for much any more since the state has been gerrymandered to ensure a Rethug majority until sometime in the next century), I can honestly say that I never thought the worst ugly joke on the United States that has ever been perpetuated - the disgusting candidacy of the dimwit Shrub would ever be a success and he'd win not one but two terms as POTUS, I was wrong. Sadly, very wrong.
So even if they appear to be a joke, people better beware, because sometimes the voters would prefer to vote for a comedian.
(And does anyone agree that Shrub's baby bro, Jeb, makes W look like a MENSA Rhodes Scholar by comparison?)
daleanime
(17,796 posts)doesn't mean that I don't take him seriously, he maybe the worst of all the republican candidates. So other then continuing to pop his bubble, which is surprisingly easy to do, what do you want me to do?
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Right now, his betting market odds put him at 12% to win the nomination and 6% to win the presidency. I think the 12% is a little low and the 6% is a little high, but markets are probably the most accurate overall indicators at this time.
Obviously, he is an abomination, but I'm rooting for him in the GOP race because I think he would be the easiest to beat. I don't think his schtick will go over well outside of right-wingers. The only thing better for Dems would be if he loses the nomination and then runs as a third party.
But, no, he's not a joke.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'd like to be wrong.
Here's hoping.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)the market numbers indicate that Trump is the most electable in the GOP field. Hmm.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251629757
Recursion
(56,582 posts)oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)Our local Dem club has started fund-raising for 2016 and we are supporting a strong possibility to go against Issa. No chance Trump will do well in our area but there are other things to do. Thank you for the post.
KansDem
(28,498 posts)libodem
(19,288 posts)MY EYES
haikugal
(6,476 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)appealing to some and will get you so far, but I think the majority feel comfortable with someone who's had some political experience.
Duval
(4,280 posts)LAGC
(5,330 posts)We all saw how Faux News tried to take him out during the first debate.
They were way too obvious and it backfired, but now they're being much more subtle and smart.
The conservative vote is already being divided between the likes of Trump, Carson, and Fiorina.
Just what the Establishment wants -- a fractured conservative vote -- so that their more "moderate" inside man Jebby-poo can clinch the nom with only 30% of the vote when all is said and done.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)hibbing
(10,095 posts)He's the most entrenched establishment candidate there is. However, never underestimate the stupidity of the American public. After all, we all need the estate tax eliminated and tax cuts for the 1% because we will all be there if we just work harder.
Peace
Aerows
(39,961 posts)is a nightmare. Just as bad is Fiorina. That woman has never seen an organization that she didn't burn to the ground through her "leadership".
Let's face it, all of them are absolutely awful, but those two are particularly dangerous because they are perceived as not as extreme as the rest of the pack. Nobody on either side likes Jeb Bush - I think Republicans hate him as much as everybody else does.
Rubio might turn out to be dangerous down the road.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)This is a particularly poisonous set of toadstools
Aerows
(39,961 posts)but I can't see anyone sane voting for him. I could be wrong, though, he could get dangerous. Hell, the fact that he's in the Senate is dangerous enough!
closeupready
(29,503 posts)So I'm really not scared. Further, on taking bribes/donations-for-friendship, I feel he has more integrity than almost any other candidate than Bernie, so on that measure, I'm encouraged that we could make progress on campaign finance reform if he won.
world wide wally
(21,740 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)awoke_in_2003
(34,582 posts)This guy is tapping the hateful, bigoted pulse of the GOP base. Mexican Americans will be our century"s scape goat if we don't get a grip on ourselves.
world wide wally
(21,740 posts)awoke_in_2003
(34,582 posts)pull those of us who do down with them.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)It could happen with Rump.
...terrifying if voters don't take the election seriously.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)his tax plan proves that--and he would still get many conservatives because of his stand on immigration.
Peacetrain
(22,874 posts)And even if he has plateaued as some are saying.. he has plowed the field for the tea party.. and a tea party backed candidate for President.. which if added to our crazy congress.. I can't even wrap my head around it..
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Even if he's peaked, he's widened the latitude of crazy that the party will accept.
We. Absolutely. Must. Win. This. Election.
I'm Team O'Malley, and I think he would legitimately be the best President our party can offer right now. His combination of thoughtfulness and substantive policy offerings suggests a great basis of legislation to fight for.
That said, my second choice is Sanders and I think he would be an amazing President. While he doesn't do the specifics quite as well as O'Malley does, his passion is absolutely second to none, and I think he would drive the national conversation in the right direction better than anyone else.
All the other candidates (even Webb and Chaffee) have things speaking for them. I literally would not hesitate to vote for any of them ahead of any troglodyte the GOP brings forth.
Peacetrain
(22,874 posts)in Iowa.. I of course will support the Democratic candidate..But for me O'Malley is the best we have to offer for getting things done
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'm working Democrats Abroad right now; we'll see what happens.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)It's a money making ploy to him.
rladdi
(581 posts)D. Trump is proving that our current elected politicians are beholden to special interests, so the tax code will not change with them. Why can't our current lawmakers change the tax codes? WhY? Is the money of special interests so important to them.
still_one
(92,116 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)nt
Metric System
(6,048 posts)Duval
(4,280 posts)much air time by our Corporate Media. It is up to progressive sites such as DU, and "we the people" to make our particular candidate's policy known. I wish we were having more debates. Clinton's "email silliness" get a lot of attention and we hardly ever hear about Bernie Sanders or O'Malley. WE have a big job ahead of us.
I used to believe Trump was a joke, but giving him so much air time on MSNBC this morning makes me reconsider.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)We must always voice our dissent and enjoy our disagreements.
brooklynite
(94,489 posts)...consider that:
his polling numbers are already starting to fall...
he has the highest numbers of people who say they'll NEVER vote for him.
apnu
(8,754 posts)From Delirious but about Jessie Jackson:
"I've seen Jesse in the gym, working the fuck out, too, for getting into shape. You know he got a chance he can win. White dudes like to do shit like that...vote for the wrong dude as a goof.
They get drunk and shit and go like:
'Let's vote for Jesse Jackson!'
'I just voted for Jesse Jackson !'
And next day would be like this: 'He fuckin' won?'"
Now change Jessie Jackson for Donald Trump, and the point is still right on.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Trump's arguments stand a good chance of roping in a fair amount of independents, and even those corners of the Democratic party that is generally populist, but maybe not so interested in social issues (The Kim Davises and whatnot.)
Recursion
(56,582 posts)We can lose two of those (as Obama showed) but not all three.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Clinton I'm not so sure about. But... WV was never in the game, and KY was dubious anyway. We should still vie for those rather than write them off, but...
However, I don't think Trump will be the nominee. He's real popular, yeah, but put 'em in the polls and Republican voters are more likely to vote for Bush or Rubio.
It's how we got McCain instead of Giuliani and Mitt instead of Cain. For the Republicans, the Prom Queen and class president are two different people.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Let me think about that
NaturalHigh
(12,778 posts)as I have beating Brock Lesnar. Not gonna happen.
Oneironaut
(5,491 posts)He is going off a laundry list of greviences a large segment of Americans have. He is a con artist. All he cares about is power for himself.
His ideas resonate with Americans who are angry at how our government is failing them.
Vinca
(50,258 posts)100% of the time. A few of the things he said actually made sense. We dismiss him at our peril. (During the question period after the speech I was wishing a reporter would have him flip his necktie over so we could see where it was made. It didn't happen, of course. Diss the Donald and there go the ratings for you.)
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)It will be a struggle, but I'll try.
nichomachus
(12,754 posts)Trump is not a joke. Trump is a lot stronger candidate than people give him credit for. In any other place, Trump could win.
BUT -- this is the US. The election will be decided, whether we like to admit it or not, as it always is -- by the so-called mainstream media. They decide who they want and then they can create any reality they want.
Ross Perot was an incredibly strong candidate. That scared the shit out of the Powers that Be. So, they decided that he was crazy. So, it began -- crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy -- morning, noon, and night -- over and over and over.
Howard Dean was a strong candidate. By the end of November 2003, he was called "the unbeatable front runner." Then, he threatened the media, and the barrage began in the middle of December. Every single media outlet -- from the Washington Post, NBC, WSJ down to the local supermarket Penny Saver -- was running story after story after story: Howard Dean is unelectable. By the time of the caucuses, people were telling exit pollsters that they didn't vote for Dean because he was unelectable. Then, for good measure, the media set him up with the phony "Dean Scream." So they made him crazy on top of being unelectable.
If the corporatist media want Trump, he will prevail. If not, they will take him down in a matter of weeks.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I don't think he will make it out of the primaries.
Raine1967
(11,589 posts)I hear you.
I know it might sound trite, but if a VP candidate can become a reality show persona, a reality show persona should be taken seriously.
Trump is not a joke. Abboration that he might be, lets take a look around the GOP lists
Perry and Walker are out. Jindal is on his last gasps of air. His campaign is reduced to denying they lost the friggin Duck Dynasty endorsement to Trump.
Jeb is at make or break time.
So who is left on the varsity stage? No one the GOP base really likes.
There is a real possibility that this is the GOP nominee, and even if it isn't every candidate is tacking to his right.