O'Malley's path to the nomination

[Recursion]

Hi again all,

People have frequently asked what Sanders's conceivable path to the nomination is, so I thought I would answer that question as regards my preferred candidate, Martin O'Malley.

1. Both Sanders and O'Malley depend on this: a strong debate showing. I absolutely believe O'Malley will have an amazing debate performance. I concede Sanders will also. But I personally think O'Malley's grasp of the issues and his well-researched positions will come over very well

2. Sanders, as far as I can tell, hopes to take both Iowa and New Hampshire -- and those seem feasible -- and then catapult momentum from there. In contrast, O'Malley is hoping for a good showing in both states. If O'Malley takes a strong third in Iowa and a surprising second after Sanders in New Hampshire, that suddenly opens a lot of things up. If this comes after strong debate performances then this is the momentum O'Malley has been lacking the whole time.

3. Assuming 1 and 2, O'Malley starts getting press time, at which point he gets hyper-specific about his very detailed proposals for Social Security, Gun Control, and Medicare. While both Clinton and Sanders agree with him on the substance, he has an existing scored position that he can ask them to join or renounce.

4. Either Clinton or Sanders implodes from a gaffe (I'm more or less certain this will happen to one of them) on or around Super Tuesday. Meanwhile, Biden announces he is not running. This frees up 15% or so of the Democratic vote, and with O'Malley getting press coverage and handling it well most of it goes to him.

5. The nomination drags. On. Forever. Eventually, O'Malley wins enough delegates that the remaining candidate has to concede.

So, anyways, that's my thought on how O'Malley gets from here to there.

[virtualobserver]

1. Shattering the last remnants of Hillary's inevitability bubble is the critical first step.

It will strip away her purely "name recognition" voters.

O'M has been pretty aggressive, but it should really pay off in a debate format.

I think that Hillary's "gaffe" will be a poorly constructed "gotcha" that will backfire.

I'm looking forward to this.

[Recursion]

2. Fair point: I almost think the best thing O'Malley-supporting Iowans could do is vote Sanders

Even if it's Sanders who slays the dragon, that opens up a whole lot of things.

[virtualobserver]

4. I think that it will happen long before Iowa

Sanders and especially O'Malley are still unknown to many Americans who are not paying attention.......lots of upside there.

If I'm on Team Hillary I'm scared shitless......she/they are very cautious....and when they do get aggressive they screw it up.


Biden is the wild card, though......tough for O'Malley to gain traction if he does actually run.

[Recursion]

5. Agreed: Biden effectively knocks O out of the race

I'm still trying to figure out what Biden's angle is here. Maybe just waiting to see how things shake out.

[thesquanderer]

3. For him to have "an amazing debate performance"...

...he has to come across great publicly speaking on TV. From what I've seen, that's a problem for him. Can you point to any videos where he exhibits a dynamic presence in front of an audience?

[elleng]

6. Try this, for public speaking:

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

7. I think he has an outside chance as the compromise candidate.

Not as bad as Hillary and Not as radical as Bernie.

But, I think Biden's going to jump in and take that same position.