Clinton's slide continues. Morning Consult's 7/17-7/20 national poll Clinton 52;

[magical thyme]

Last edited Tue Sep 29, 2015, 10:07 PM - Edit history (2)

Sanders 16; Biden 11

8/4-8/16 poll: Clinton 50; Sanders 24

Their most recent poll -- with Clinton at 44, Sanders 23 and Biden 19 -- shows that Clinton's trajectory continues downward, with Biden picking up most of her losses. Sander's 1 pt drop is within moe, so essentially unchanged.

[upaloopa]

1. Not really. They now add Biden who was not

in previous polls. Biden's numbers come at Hillary's expense. Biden is not in the race so add Biden to Hillary and she is at 63%.
What the poll shows is that Sanders has peaked.

[left-of-center2012]

12. "... Sanders has peaked" ~~ Oh, not Again ! ? !

[Eleanors38]

51. Yes, it's beginning to look like a flight over the Alps.

[Tommy2Tone]

2. Some softening but your boy is only at 23

and Clinton still leads him by 21 points. Plus Bernie leads a guy who hasn't even decided to run by only 4 points.

[magical thyme]

5. the "guy who hasn't even decided to run" has been VP for 8 years, prior candidate, included in every

national poll and many of the matchup polls.

Name recognition matters. Including Biden in every poll makes it look as though he is running. Also the constant tease of "will he or won't he" and virtual public endorsement and encouragement by his current boss.

In the meantime, Clinton's slide continues. I found additional Morning Consult polls on the Huffpost site: she seems to drop a point each week. They had her at 60 in mid-July. Drop...drop...drop...

[Tommy2Tone]

7. She is not in a slide with Dems

Latest poll shows she has a 73% approval and only 20% with Democrats.

Drop..drop..drop that Bernie boy

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Actually higher if you include the last week of data

Now, as noted, her image has begun to improve. We rely on two-week rolling averages to provide large sample sizes and stable estimates when trending the candidates' images, but a look at just the last seven days through Sept. 27 shows that her net favorable image among Democrats is at +57, suggesting a clear upward trajectory.


http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/185939/hillary-clinton-image-improves-among-democrats.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=heading&utm_campaign=syndication

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Current poll-HRC-44% -SBS 23% JB 19%

Reallocating Biden's support

HRC-57%
SBS -28%

That's not a horrible place to be.

[Snap the Turtle]

17. You are reallocating incorrectly,

If Biden is not appearing in the debates on October 13th, and the deadline is the following day - the Biden voters, having listened to both Clinton and Sanders will break 3:1 to Sanders, not Clinton. It also ends her "inevitability" because by then, the polls will not yield a lead again for Clinton.

After the second debates, when it is confirmed that Clinton is not the correct choice for President, her superdelegates will break also.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Your hypothesis is not supported by the facts...

If Biden is not appearing in the debates on October 13th, and the deadline is the following day - the Biden voters, having listened to both Clinton and Sanders will break 3:1 to Sanders,

Your hypothesis is not supported by the facts...The available data suggests that Hillary Clinton is the second choice of nearly three of four Biden voters. I am sure if you have data that contradicts my assertions you will post it, am I right?

[Snap the Turtle]

31. Both Biden and HRC are establishment Dems

So they really don't differentiate from each other.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Precisely...

If you add up her and his supporters it comes out to approximately 2/3 of Democratic voters. Biden and Clinton are Obama Light or Obama Plus or Obama 2.0 or Obama 3.0.

Why would voters who like the policies of Clinton, Biden, and Obama embrace a candidate who rejects them?

Look at it as buying a car.

Someone who is in the market for a Camry, an Accord, an Altima, a Malibu isn't going to end up buying a Mini Cooper.

[Snap the Turtle]

38. You know 27% of the total voter base is Democratic?

Democratic voters alone is not going to be enough for Clinton win in the GE. That's all she is going to get.

Bernie, on the other hand, gets the Independents (the largest voter bloc at 43%), Democrats and some sane Republicans in the GE and that alone makes him a winner in my eyes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Democrats and Democratic leaning independents are 46% of the electorate.

Democrats and Democratic leaning independents are 46% of the electorate. Republicans and Republican leaning independents are 41% of the electorate. That is from Gallup...

[Snap the Turtle]

57. Interesting.

But also consider this: The Democratic-leaning independents left that party because it wasn't representative of their ideals. I heard about 10% of the Democratic voters from 2014 dropped their party identity, going independent.

Do you have a recent polls on how voters identify themselves these days - the Gallup poll was from Jan 7th of 2015.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

60. I am sure there is some variability but the variability is small...

I am sure there is some variability but the variability is small... The larger point, imho, is that the number of true independents are small and most independents lean one way or another.

[Snap the Turtle]

61. Thanks - we shall have another interesting discussion on different issues or topic

But for tonight, I must call it a night.

See you in the morning.

[Tommy2Tone]

44. He has no data

He is using the "because I said so" form of documentation.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Snap and I are friends now.

But if Biden and Clinton are essentially policy clones it stands to reason that their supporters would be drawn from the same reservoir of voters. Why would they vote for someone who rejects the policies they embrace?

That seems like a fair question.

[Tommy2Tone]

49. Agreed

I have the same feeling for Hillary or Joe. Both are really good candidates. I just prefer Hillary as a candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. No matter how you cut it Joe and Hillary...

No matter how you cut it Joe and Hillary represent over two out of every three Democratic primary voters, and their policies are virtually identical.

Even in the unlikely event he announces and then surpasses Hillary they will still have two out of three Democratic primary voters...


We are getting wayyyyyyyyyyy ahead of ourselves but if Sanders, Clinton, and Biden end up with 1/3 of the delegates each the delegates would be released from their pledges to vote for the candidate of their choice in the second round of voting. Since Hillary and Biden are each other's second choice one of them will be the nominee.

But we aren't going to get that far...

[oasis]

29. Predicting the outcome of the debates? Give us the GE winner

while your psychic powers are still going strong.

[Snap the Turtle]

30. Sure. Bernie over Kasich

[oasis]

40. Thanks.

[Snap the Turtle]

15. That will end two weeks from tonight.

Her remaining lead, after the debates, will all disappear due to Clinton's inability to answer tough questions. Anderson Cooper is no fool..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. She will do to her opponents what the Redskins did to the Broncos in Super Bowl XXll

The woman is absolutely brilliant, quick on her feet, and unflappable.

[Snap the Turtle]

32. On real issues?

Such as TPP, Keystone, fracking, income inequality, equality, racial justice and more.

Clinton better get hopping to practice. She'll need two weeks of "alone time" to prepare herself.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. She is a great debater.

That was the consensus from her 00 and 08 debates.

[MindfulOne]

3. I think that Bernie Sanders is going to pass her before too long...

[saturnsring]

4. and biden's not running so of course lets include him

clinging to these polls that include people who arent running smells like desperation. the gop thanks you for your demorlization effort

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. "They" have to include Biden as to maintain the illusion of a horse race.

"They" have to include Biden as to maintain the illusion of a horse race. All the available data suggests that for every vote he takes from Senator Sanders he takes three to four from Secretary Clinton.

[Snap the Turtle]

20. Biden's not budging...

He's not ready to take on the difficult task of running for President and has literally no organization, even those "Ready for Biden" folks are going to be disappointed.

Biden's behavior mirrors Elizabeth Warren's behavior in regards to deciding if he's running. He's not emotionally ready to take on the task, therefore, he is not running, having stated so a few times.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I am not going to criticize the vice president. But out of respect to the other candidates...

I am not going to criticize the vice president. But out of respect to the other candidates he should announce his intentions.

Gun to my head, I say he doesn't run.

[Snap the Turtle]

26. Yes, I agree, he should announce his intentions and be done with it.

I am subscribing to a theory (you might even call it conspiracy theory) that Clinton or the DNC ordered the polls to add Biden to try to stave off Bernie's stratospheric rise. Even you have to admit that Bernie has remarkably made himself presentable and should be considered as a candidate.

I hope that you have a open mind and heart (along with your gut) and willing to listen to the debates on October 13th that should clearly delineate Sanders from Clinton as a stark contrast.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Joe has suffered great tragedies so you have to be callous not to empathize with him...

Joe has suffered great tragedies so you have to be callous not to empathize with him...But he knows exactly what he is doing with his "Will I , won't I, waiting game." If not for the tragedies there would be a lot more criticism of his tactics.

He's the sitting vice president. Any other vice president would have announced by now if he was going to run. He will not run unless Hillary totally collapses. That's his waiting game.

[Snap the Turtle]

34. I lost my dad last year

I know exactly the emotions that VP Biden is going through.

I know he's still hurting. He lost his wife, his daughter, his son and has only one son left, and the rest is extended family.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. My dad died when I was 14. My paternal grandfather died when my mom was 9 months old.

So I am no stranger to tragedy...But good ole Joe is no babe in the woods...He knows precisely what he's doing, giving a hint there, a hint here, and calling potential bundlers.

He will announce if he thinks Hillary is vulnerable and only then.

[Snap the Turtle]

41. I saw that post describing your family...

Hope your mom is well-taken care of and loved. I moved in with my family to be with her after she lost her partner of over 47 years.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. My mom passed way in 2008 at 90!!!

She was a below the knee amputee for the last twelve years of her life, those were the years I took care of her.

[Snap the Turtle]

43. May God grant you the long life that your mother had...

and hopefully enjoying family

[Tommy2Tone]

47. I know the toll it takes to be a caregiver

When our mother got sick my sister moved in with her. She cared for mom for nearly 3 years. She lost nearly everything. It cost her a marriage and a really good job. It's been 4 years since our mom passed and she still has not rebounded and at her age probably never will.

There is a special place in my heart and in heaven for a caregiver. What a special lady your mother had to be to raise someone like you.

[Faux pas]

9. Kicketty Kickin'

[WheelWalker]

11. Pulling for Biden.... Go Joe !!

[FloridaBlues]

13. I like the double digit leads by Hillary

Wonder how long we have to put up with the Biden in these polls. Either get in or say so . This cat and mouse is child's play.

[WheelWalker]

14. Asymmetric engagement..

The board is set... the pieces are moving - but what is the game?

Be concerned. Be very concerned.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I empathize with Joe. He has suffered a lot...

I empathize with Joe. He has suffered a lot... I speak from experience. My dad died when I was fourteen. My paternal grandfather died when my mom was nine so she grew up without ever knowing or having a dad. My mom had her leg amputated because of medical malpractice and I had to take care of her for the last twelve years of her life.

That being said Joe is every bit the politician Hillary is and knows exactly what he is doing with his waiting game.

[Godhumor]

16. They included Biden, which they had not done before

That is why her numbers changed.

[magical thyme]

24. re-read the OP. Prior poll was CLinton 51 Sanders 21 and BIDEN 13

and the July 17-20 morning consult poll was CLinton 52, Sanders 16 and Biden 13.

I couldn't find any morning consult polls prior to that one. Maybe you'll have better luck.

Edited to add I found one poll that leaves Biden out: 8/14-16, Clinton 50; Sanders 24. He was in their 2 prior polls.

[Godhumor]

45. The 51-21 poll is YouGov, not Morning Consult

It is the one directly above the Morning Consult poll that doesn't include Biden on Pollster.

So you're going all the way back to 7/20 to make any kind of comparison. And Sanders had increased from 16 to mid 20s in that time frame, so no surprise there.

[magical thyme]

52. oops, you're right. my cursor must have slipped. So last comparison is July 20.

too many polls jammed into too small a space!

[Godhumor]

54. No worries, we all do it

Remarkably easy to do, actually.

[Godhumor]

59. The poster was trying to make a point about Clinton's support versus Sanders with Biden included

The one poll he thought was Morning Consult wasn't, but it was the next one in line.

So, yeah, the premise in the OP is pretty flawed to start with, but it was an honest oops in identifying the poll.

And between this, the no one polled under 50 kerfuffle and the four Hispanics in a sample are enough silliness, I think there is enough polling issues to go around.

[AtomicKitten]

18. Hillary's support among women down 29 points in 8 weeks.

Clinton’s support erodes sharply among Democratic women
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-sharp-erosion-in-clinton-support-among-democratic-women/2015/09/14/6406e2a0-58c3-11e5-b8c9-944725fcd3b9_story.html

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Hillary Rodham Clinton is suffering a rapid erosion of support among Democratic women — the voters long presumed to be the bedrock in her bid to become the nation’s first female president.

The numbers in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll are an alarm siren: Where 71 percent of Democratic-leaning female voters said in July that they expected to vote for Clinton, only 42 percent do now, a drop of 29 percentage points in eight weeks.

<snip>

[Snap the Turtle]

21. That's an interesting tidbit to note.

29% drop is significant. What's also significant is that 2/3 of Americans doesn't trust Clinton either.

[book_worm]

28. But can Sanders get out of the low to middle 20's?

[magical thyme]

35. 30-35 per Ipsos/Reuters, NBC/WSJ and Fox, all in the 9/19-9/24 time frame. nt

[Godhumor]

46. Fox support was at 30 end of August and still 30 a month later

His number didn't move.

That pins a lot of hope on the NBC poll not being an outlier.

[magical thyme]

53. not a big enough difference to call an outlier. 15, 20 points yes, but not 5. nt

[magical thyme]

58. is that a request or an order?

4 days here and you're ordering everybody around. where'd you come from? "correct the record?" superpac attack dogs?

I'll correct it because I made a mistake. But your attitude is pretty offensive.

"Deleting the thread is recommended as well."
Recommended by whom? You? Who are you to be telling anybody what to do?

Oh, and welcome to DU.

[MoveIt]

62. go

away

[MoveIt]

66. Wow that never works....