PPP NC: HRC 37%, Biden 30%, Sanders 17%

[ram2008]

...On the Democratic side, North Carolina appears to be a pretty strong state for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton leads with 37% but Biden's at 30% to 17% for Bernie Sanders, 3% for Jim Webb, 2% for Lincoln Chafee, and 1% for Martin O'Malley. The North Carolina data reaffirms previous findings that a Biden entry would hurt Clinton a lot more than Sanders- 46% of Biden voters say Clinton's their second choice to just 21% who say it's Sanders. Reallocate Biden voters to their second choice and Clinton would lead Sanders 51/23, tighter than her 55/19 advantage a month ago but still not terribly competitive.

Conservative Democrats are still a thing in North Carolina- 20% of the party's electorate- and it's them who are making Biden so competitive in the state. He gets 40% to just 14% for Clinton and 8% for Sanders. When you look at the race just among liberals and moderates, Clinton has a much more comfortable lead with 42% to 28% for Biden and 19% for Sanders.

Sanders continues not to do that well in the South. The race is relatively close three ways when you look just at white voters- 31% for Clinton to 26% for Biden and 23% for Sanders. But Clinton (47%) and Biden (34%) are far stronger with African Americans than Sanders (8%) and that leaves him in a distant third place in the state overall.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/09/trump-steady-in-nc-biden-polls-well-.html

This poll brings up a lot of interesting questions:

1) If Biden enters the race could he split the AA vote enough that Sanders could be competitive in the south, and Hillary's super tuesday wall comes crumbling?

2) If Bernie wins Iowa and NH, will he able to get that AA vote to go towards him even if Biden doesn't enter the race? It appears Clinton's lead is mostly based on name ID.

3) If Biden is in the race and Bernie wins Iowa and NH, could a state like South Carolina ( I realize this is an NC poll, but the states are similar) actually be the state that determines who the establishment candidate is -Clinton or Biden?

Time for Joe to say whether he's in or not.

[leftofcool]

1. If Joe is in, NC may be a toss up between them

Otherwise, Hillary will lock up all the Southern States.

[Motown_Johnny]

23. This is over a month old, so odds are things have changed. But...

?1440624279




And in which direction do you think they might have changed in the last month or so?







Planning on locking up all those southern states? Seriously?

[Fearless]

3. Elaborate?

[Cali_Democrat]

4. He's pulling 8% of the African American vote in NC. That's terrible. nt

[Fearless]

6. I'd be curious to see where the candidates in 08 were at this point in the cycle.

I assume John Edwards was doing best?

[ram2008]

8. But nearly half of AA's have no opinion of him

African American Sanders Favorability

Fav (36%)
Unfav (20%)
Not sure (44%)

We won't know how well he'll fair until more AA's know about him. I'd assume the debates will increase him name recognition, and if he pulls out wins in Iowa and NH that will also help. He probably only needs around 35% of AA's to have a winning coalition.

[BlueWaveDem]

17. Advertising costs money.

[ram2008]

18. Just ask Hillary

She blew millions in Iowa and New Hampshire only to see her poll numbers sink and decline.

[BlueWaveDem]

19. She will win both.

[ram2008]

20. Highly doubt that

Bernie is already even or beating her with White voters. Iowa and NH are overwhelmingly white.

[BlueWaveDem]

24. Still months to go.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Maybe he is referring to this:

Maybe he is referring to this:

Reallocate Biden voters to their second choice and Clinton would lead Sanders 51/23, tighter than her 55/19 advantage a month ago but still not terribly competitive.

or this:

Sanders continues not to do that well in the South. The race is relatively close three ways when you look just at white voters- 31% for Clinton to 26% for Biden and 23% for Sanders. But Clinton (47%) and Biden (34%) are far stronger with African Americans than Sanders (8%) and that leaves him in a distant third place in the state overall.

[HerbChestnut]

5. Not really.

It's pretty well known that he's struggling in the southern states at the moment. If a poll came in showing him at 17% in, say, New Hampshire, *that* would be terrible news.

[MindfulOne]

9. LOL. Sanders hasn't even gone down to dazzle 'em yet, has he?

I think we're going to be in fine shape.

[HooptieWagon]

10. Not much.

I think he made a couple southern stops about a month ago. He's still picked up a handful of points in the past month despite no campaign stops. When he starts focussing more on the southern states, his #'s will become more competitive. He won't take every southern state primary, but he'll stun Clinton in a few.

[book_worm]

11. Interesting...If Joe gets in he will largely by-pass Iowa and NH

and concentrate on SC & the Super Tuesday Southern races. This NC poll is very good news for him if he runs.

[stonecutter357]

13. K&R!

[dsc]

14. I know you and many others believe that AA voters in NC

and everywhere else are just these ignorant hicks who have never had a political thought in their lives but poll after poll shows that over half of them do know who Sanders is and still aren't voting for him.

[ram2008]

15. This poll shows almost half do not know who he is.

And please stop putting words in peoples mouths; thanks.

[dsc]

21. that means over half do

which is what I said. And if the words fit. Sorry but this notion that black people are just too ignorant to know who to vote for is down right insulting.

[BlueWaveDem]

16. Go Hillary!

[Motown_Johnny]

22. After Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire, these numbers will

be very very different.

Enjoy them while you can.