WI Presidential Poll: Clinton 42; Sanders 30; Biden 17

[riversedge]

Good day for Hillary and her team


http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-09-30/walker-voters-give-trump-the-lead-in-wisconsin-marquette-poll


Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in Wisconsin, now that Gov. Scott Walker has dropped out of the race, according to a Marquette University Law School poll.


Among Democratic voters:

Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 42% to 30%; Joe Biden, who hasn’t decided on race, at 17% support


Senate race:

Among all voters surveyed, Democrat Russ Feingold leads incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in possible 2016 matchup, 50% to 36%
Feingold expands lead from August, when he led by 5 ppts

[BlueWaveDem]

1. Stop polling Biden until he announces.

[riversedge]

2. these voters are voting on the Idea of Biden. odd.

[brooklynite]

4. Don't recall anyone complaining about Warren being polled AFTER she DIDN'T announce...

[ancianita]

6. RIGHT??

[LondonReign2]

3. Clinton's lead shrinking is a good day for her?

What is a bad day?

[brooklynite]

5. When she starts losing...which, except for NH, she's not.

[LondonReign2]

8. A shrinking lead is a good thing. I guess you learn something every day

[Clayton Clay]

11. Twice, you falsely stated that her lead shrank

It didn't.

[LondonReign2]

12. If 12 is greater than or equal to 44 you are correct

[Clayton Clay]

13. Where the hell did you read that her previous lead was 44?

?

[Clayton Clay]

7. Clinton's lead didn't shrink

Why did you say it shrank?

[BlueWaveDem]

10. Without Biden she's still hovering around the 60% mark she started at.

[think]

9. Like seeing Feingold up by 14%. Very cool. /nt

[brooklynite]

14. Had dinner with him last week; race looks very promising.

[Fawke Em]

15. .

[ronnykmarshall]

41. and what does .....

... have to do with the posters comment?

[think]

18. Cool. We need him back in the Senate.

[ronnykmarshall]

43. That would be fantastic.

That's one race that I'll make sure to donate too.

[riversedge]

29. Lucky you.

[ram2008]

16. Good news for Bernie

Only 12 points away from Hillary and no debates yet. Should be interesting to see how those numbers play out afterwards.

[jfern]

17. Sanders kicks ass in the general election

Last edited Wed Sep 30, 2015, 07:42 PM - Edit history (3)

He's overall stronger than Hillary

Clinton - 50%
Bush - 38%

Clinton- 48%
Rubio - 40%

Clinton- 50%
Trump - 36%

Sanders - 49%
Bush - 39%

Sanders - 49%
Rubio - 36%

Sanders - 53%
Trump - 34%

http://wbay.com/2015/09/30/clinton-sanders-lead-gop-rivals-in-marquette-poll/

[Thor_MN]

20. You might want to cite your source...

Otherwise one would be prone to think that you made up numbers that show Sanders with a slight, probably statistically insignificant, edge over Clinton, in some races.

My $0.02, if this is your definition of kicking ass, the other people in your area must have extremely short legs...

[jfern]

21. It's the same poll, and how the heck is beating Trump by 19 in a swing state not kicking ass

Here's a link that actually has the numbers.

http://wbay.com/2015/09/30/clinton-sanders-lead-gop-rivals-in-marquette-poll/

[Thor_MN]

22. Ah, the poll on the OP...

It would make sense that you didn't link, since it was the same poll, but you could have mentioned that you were only talking about Wisconsin.

So you believe that Wisconsin, all by its lonesome, elects the President?

Wisconsin, the state that was overrun by Republican money? The larger news is, IMO, that Wisconsin might be a deeper Blue next fall.

Now that we know which poll you were talking about, we can say that Sanders has a slight, statistically significant, advantage over Clinton's numbers. In all three matchups against the same opponent, Sanders has a 5% advantage over Clinton, just above the MOE of 4.1%. That's if I am remembering right. If I'm not and one has to double the MOE because of the type of comparison, Sanders advantage becomes statistically insignificant.

Phone polling 830 people in one state and coming away with an advantage of 0.9% over MOE does not lead to a "kicking ass" moment...

[jfern]

26. MOE is much smaller when comparing 2 results in the same poll

And of course I don't think Wisconsin determines the President by itself. Straw man much?

[Thor_MN]

30. So "kicking ass" is factually accurate?

I don't think that MOE is smaller, much less much smaller, when comparing two results. IIRC, the error is applied to each result and when you compare the results and bring the error through the calculation, the error gets larger, or stays the same.

Put another way, your measurement can be no more accurate than your largest source of error. To claim that the error gets smaller when you compare numbers is ridiculous.

[jfern]

31. Nope, when the same poll MOE is smaller

Lets say you have 48% vote for both A and B. 48% vote against A and B. 3% vote for A and not B. 1% vote for B and not A. Then the comparison is that 75% of the 4% who vote for only 1 are voting for A. If the sample was 1000, 4% is 40, which has a MOE of 16%, and so the 75-25 lead for A over B in this case is statistically significant.

[Thor_MN]

35. That doesn't even remotely apply to the situation at hand.

Try again.

[jfern]

37. Of course it applies

What a weak response

[Thor_MN]

44. "Lets say you have 48% vote for both A and B."

48% that vote for Sanders AND Trump?

If you think that is possible in head to head matchups, there is no hope of having a conversation..

Have a good night, kick some ass while you are at it, from your definition, it's very easy.

[jfern]

45. No, A and B were supposed to be Sanders and Hillary

With the rest of the vote going for Trump

[Thor_MN]

49. Then you are not talking about the same poll

Head to head matchups are separate polls (albeit done at the same time) proving that you don't know what you are talking about.

Like I said, go kick some ass, others are not going to even notice, since your bar is so low.

[jfern]

52. No, they are the same sample, and so aren't different polls

It's only 1 random sample, not 2. You're not comparing different polls. Learn some about polling or stop talking out of your ass.

[Thor_MN]

53. The head to head matchups are not linked, the operation you want to do is invalid

Just as your "kicking ass" comment is invalid.

[jfern]

54. What do you mean not linked? They are the same poll with the same random sample

[Thor_MN]

55. The Clinton/Trump question has nothing to do with the Sanders/Trump question.

They are separate datasets and you are trying to treat them the same.

Since you don't know what you are talking about, I'm though.

Go on kicking ass, by your standards, no one will know that you are doing it.

[jfern]

56. They are the same random sample, clearly you don't know anything about taking a random sample

[Thor_MN]

57. Same population, but different datasets.

Your lack of statistics knowledge is apparent. Suppose that 700 of the people chose to pick either Clinton or Trump and 500 chose Sanders or Trump. The two datasets are not comparable using a simple MOE, because they are not linked. You need a more complex test to compare across two datasets.

Since you think the entire poll is one huge simplistic dataset, I believe that says something.

I'll let you have the last inane response bleating "It's the same, it's all the same."

[jfern]

58. One poll generally is one data set with one random sample

I don't get why you don't understand this.

[Clayton Clay]

25. Wisconsin is not a swing state

It's not.

[jfern]

27. Kerry and Gore barely won it.

[Clayton Clay]

32. We are in 2015

We are in 2015.

Plus something is said to "swing" when it changes from one side to the other. Wisconsin hasn't "swung" in a long time.

[jfern]

34. No, Minnesota is understood to be a swing state even though it hasn't gone GOP since 1972

[Clayton Clay]

40. So you did research as to whom considers Minnesota a swing state and who doesn't?

Did you really?

[jfern]

42. Both Minnesota and Wisconsin are listed as swing states for the 2012 election here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state

[book_worm]

28. In terms of presidential elections I wouldn't call WI a swing state

The last time the GOP presidential nominee won Wisconsin was Ronald Reagan in 1984--31 years and 7 presidential elections ago. But yes, a 19-point lead is impressive even if it's against Trump.

[Clayton Clay]

33. 14% would be impressive too. Clinton leads Trump by 14%

I don't remember the last presidential candidate who won it by 14%.

[HereSince1628]

46. What swings in WI is voter turnout...pretty remarkable in the GE of POTUS

Last edited Thu Oct 1, 2015, 05:49 PM - Edit history (1)

Participation of dems is poor in primaries.
Participation of dems in off-year and state and local elections isn't great
Participation in presidential elections among the best in the nation

[ronnykmarshall]

39. Lets take note

Rubio is about to drop out. Trump is toast. Bush won't make it past NH.

[stonecutter357]

23. K&R!

[Gothmog]

24. These are good polling numbers for Hillary Clinton

[Ken Burch]

36. That makes Bernie very competitive in that state.

One thing that will help him...Bernie is passionately pro-labor, and HRC, as a DLC founder, led the fight to leave the labor movement totally out in the cold in internal Democratic politics.

No union man or woman is going to be a passionate supporter of a champion of NAFTA and a secret supporter of TPP.

[ronnykmarshall]

38. LIES! LIES!

THIS is the only poll that matters!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=633033

[Scuba]

47. The "Marquette University Law School" is a tool of the Bradley Foundation, run by ...

... a discredited hack named Charles Franklin.


I'm not a big fan of polls, and this is one of the most biased polling organizations around.

[riversedge]

48. Walker in the Toilet, Trump Takes Crown, Clinton & Feingold Lead Big KOS

anet Denison Retweeted
Spud Lovr ‏@SpudLovr 8h8 hours ago

Wisconsin: Marquette Poll - Walker in the Toilet, Trump Takes Crown, Clinton & Feingold Lead Big http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/09/30/1426326/-Wisconsin-Marquette-Poll-Walker-in-the-Toilet-Trump-Takes-the-Crown-Clinton-Feingold-Lead-Big … #wiunion #wipolitics
View summary

[Thinkingabout]

51. It is good to see Hillary is still standing tall, it is also exciting to see Feingold in the lead.