Hillary Clinton’s support among Blacks plunges in a new poll

[Catherina]

Hillary Clinton’s support among Blacks plunges in a new poll

By Philip Bump October 1 at 1:57 PM

Over the course of the still-awfully young Democratic primary season, one demographic split has been repeated over and over again: Non-whites have consistently been more supportive of Hillary Clinton than whites.

...

A new poll from Suffolk University and USA Today, though, suggests a big shift among African Americans that could undermine that confidence. We have to note up front that this is one poll, with large margins of error on black responses. That said, the shift is surprising.

...



...

Part of the shift in support for Clinton might be due to the decline in her net favorability among Blacks. Opinions of Clinton have dropped among all Democrats as we've seen before. Among Blacks, the decline has been greater -- and the increase in favorable views of Sanders has been stark. Clinton is down 16 points in net favorability, and Sanders is up 31. (The margin of error here, we would reinforce, is 8.5 points.)



(Sanders also saw a big decline in the number of voters who hadn't heard of him. In July, 23 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of Black voters were unfamiliar with him. Now the percentages are 5 for both.)

...

It's that shift among Blacks that's most noteworthy. One poll. Large margin of error. But if it turns out to be predictive, it could significantly shift the Democratic contest.

...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/10/01/hillary-clintons-support-from-black-voters-plunges-in-a-new-poll/

[Metric System]

1. "One poll. Large margin of error." That's all that needs to be said, for now at least.

[George II]

32. and..."if it turns out to be predictive, it could significantly shift the Democratic contest"

If it DOESN'T turn out to be predictive, it won't significantly shift the Democratic contest!

If more people in each primary vote for Clinton she'll win each, if they don't she won't.

If, if, if, if.................eliminate all the "ifs" and there wouldn't be a story.

[Metric System]

34. So few people were actually polled, it's laughable that someone even wrote an article based on this

one poll. Of course, journalists, now more than ever, like to write stories rather than report on them.

[George II]

42. And you won't hear this reported:

54% said they don't think there should be more debates, only 34% think there should be more!

And the "one word" questions used different words for each candidate, leading the respondents in the direction the pollster wanted.

[Metric System]

67. Honestly, I've never seen the media influence a primary like this one.

[George II]

94. I actually don't think they've influenced it all that much, but they sure have TRIED to do so.

[demwing]

96. Not in 2000?

Not in 2004?

2000 was ridiculous , but 2004 was insane, from the Dean Scream to the swift boat, there was no way in hell that the media going to let the Dems survive.

[Metric System]

97. Yeah, after I posted I questioned myself. We've seen similar behavior before. It just feels like

maybe the hunt for Hillary is a bit more intense.

[demwing]

106. I felt that way about Dean

Maybe we're sensitive in defense of our chosen candidates.

[Fearless]

163. You're using poll data to discredit the use of poll data?

[6chars]

65. Only 1000! LOL

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10741.php

[senz]

114. The concept of random sampling may not be intuitive, but it can be interesting

You can check it out here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_%28statistics%29

Or just do a web search on "random sampling"

[6chars]

122. Thanks for the great link

Not something for reading all at once, but worth setting aside some time. Sometimes Wikipedia is really impressive.

[senz]

125. Glad you like it.

I was hoping you wouldn't find it too dry and boring. If you do a search, you might find a shorter explanation. Yes, Wikipedia's great -- but not always reliable because people are allowed to modify the entries. But on subjects like this, it's usually good.

[magical thyme]

147. that's about the same size as most of the polls being watched...

and the moe is about in the middle of the other polls, which range from ~4-6%.

One poll may be an outlier, or may be a predictor. Other polls will confirm one way or the other.

[sabrina 1]

79. Bernie never had a problem with AAs but it was interesting watching White people here tell them what

to think about someone they had not yet heard about. Now they are speaking for themselves, not just this poll, but all over Social Media and in RL, AAs are finally learning about Bernie and his stellar record on Civil Rights, and when they compare Hillary's to his, they are sold.

I can't keep up with all the new AA supporters on Social Media. So yes, this poll does reflect what we are seeing in RL as more people get to know him.

The smear campaign, once again, fails. Because NO White people can speak for the AA community nor should they, like all other Americans the notion that AAs are a 'bloc' who are 'autonomous' has turned out to be very offensive to AAs and they are saying so in increasing numbers.

[JI7]

87. thank GAWD for Corey Booker for telling the truth

[sabrina 1]

93. Yes, thank the gods for anyone who tells the truth, and when they don't, say so. Did you have a

point? Re Booker, he's done both and each time I responded to him, he follows me on Twitter btw, honestly, telling him when I disagreed with him, and when I agreed with him.

Seems like the adult thing to do.

But I'm interested in what point you're trying to make, this OP isn't about Booker. I may actually write one about him. He's an interesting man. Sometimes right, sometimes very wrong. Like all of us.

[senz]

123. I was sad to see AAs influenced by the toxicity in certain parts around here --

being led to believe that Bernie OR his supporters are racist. That is so false it is ludicrous. It still makes me sad that some commenters who claim to be AA are unable to accept that Bernie is 100% in their corner. They won't even read his excellent, detailed, comprehensive position paper on racial justice at berniesanders.com. A few people on DU have become unreachable because of this toxic garbage; they just assume Bernie is their enemy.

I'm so glad they don't represent AAs everywhere.

[sabrina 1]

134. Well, from what I see, very few AAs have been influenced by that smear campaign. And few appreciate

being spoken FOR since they have zero problem speaking for themselves. So like all the other smear campaigns so far, it totally backfired, in the sense that it helped minorities who had not heard of him, learn more about him.

So many minority groups now all over the internet, and many AAs have taken to the internet to let people know that NO ONE speaks for them and that they love Bernie.

However it was and remains a particularly malicious plot to try to undermine a decent human being simply for the purpose of promoting another one. As we can see, all this negative garbage is not affecting Bernie in the least, but it is having a negative effect on the candidate they supposedly support.

[Art_from_Ark]

140. [phone]

[Tommy2Tone]

155. If we were to believe this poll Bernie is in trouble as well

He is polling under 20% with African Americans. Now is when you will tell me how his numbers are rising and you should know. You keep up with everything on your Facebook account.

[merrily]

142. LOL! Now, using "if" in a discussion about future events is wrong? OMG.

[artislife]

107. I read it from my feed from The Root on FB

https://www.facebook.com/theRoot?fref=ts

Little info from their page:
139,178People Talking About This
382,729Total Page Likes
0.8%from last week
3,028
New Page Likes


so whatever else, the people who are now reading this a generally the market to keep the shift going. The power of social media.

[Logical]

160. I love the desperation! Nt

[Fawke Em]

2. I could see that trend just on social media.

Thanks for this!

[Catherina]

7. Same here. Snowballing too. Delightfully so n/t

[sabrina 1]

98. Yes, I noticed it also, but then I never bought the smear campaign, considering where it started.

The ONLY problem he ever had with AAs AND everyone else, was name recognition.

But those who do not want the people to win this election, knew that Civil Rights was his strong point, and in true Rovian fashion, they decided to attack him on that BEFORE AAs got to know him.

It backfired, in fact it helped him, as most AAs had never heard of him, but the SMEAR CAMPAIGN actually changed that. People began to wonder what all the fuss was about. Saw it happen on Social Media. 'Who is this guy, he seems like someone who has been working for us for decades'. Saw that over and over and was more than happy to inform people of his record.

AAs began switching from Hillary to Bernie. Some high profile, others ordinary people who were outraged at the attacks on him once they learned about who he is.

I never doubted that once they learned about, like everyone else, minorities would be very impressed.

[Catherina]

131. This is why I don't want Bernie-haters to change a single thing in their approach

We should be cutting the inept haters thank you checks.

[sabrina 1]

148. I know, they don't understand that smear campaigns that used to work in the past, mainly

because there was only the Corp Media pushing them, Faux et al, don't even get started today before they are exposed and taken apart by thousands of people on the New Media.

Not to mention, since most people want money out of politics and they know that the Dark Money being poured into these campaigns PAYS for these smears, they hate them even more.

People are ready for them now, because we expected this.

When you have to use David 'Blinded by the Money' Brock, to do the dirty work, you're already in trouble.

[Catherina]

150. If anything, I'd like them to pump up the volume

watching on social media how spectacularly their attacks backfire, makes my day every single time.

Please, please, please pump up the volume Clinton supporters. The anti-Semitic memes against Bernie are the next winners for us.

[sabrina 1]

153. That has already started, the anti-semitic attacks. By two of Hillary's surrogates. But you're right

let them keep doing it, the reaction of decent people to all of this has been total disgust as it should be.

I remember the interview on NPR I believe, where Bernie was asked about his 'dual citizenship'. First time I saw him actually angry at an interviewer, and rightfully so.

I wasn't familiar with her but was told she was a great 'liberal' and that this was surprising. She had to issue an apology since Bernie does not have dual citizenship.

She was given the benefit of the doubt until recently when she again made statements about him, this time it's clear it wasn't an 'innocent mistake'.

The only people hurt by this behavior are those doing it, and those for whom it is being done when they do not condemn it.

[WillyT]

3. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Zorra]

4. As facts are gathered, intelligent people adapt, and rearrange accordingly. nt

[hifiguy]

78. Yep - it's the small-scale version of the scientific method.

More information leads to revision of theories.

[reddread]

83. its the blueprint of concious existence

some would prefer others didnt think or learn.
does that need documenting?

[hifiguy]

85. Hardly.

Most of the indoctrination centers call themselves "churches" a/k/a "no thinking zones."

Bertrand Russell captured it nicely: Most people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.

[reddread]

91. faith takes many forms

you wont have to release a rock to hit something around here that cannot be said.
or at least viciously received and violently objected to.

[99th_Monkey]

5. BIG Kick and Rec. - This is incredibly awesomely stellar. Thanks for this OP

it's totally making my day.

[HooptieWagon]

6. The better people know about Sanders, the more his numbers rise.

Black people no different than whites, women, youth, etc. when they learn about Bernie they support him, unless they're supporting Wall St and the status quo.

[azmom]

66. Yep. It's as simple as that. Latinos too.

Well said my friend.

Latinos for Bernie

Si se puede

[artislife]

109. Yes, there are a lot of Latino groups for Bernie, too nt

[arcane1]

8. Sounds like the word is getting out!

I hope to see more of this

[sabrina 1]

136. That was the only 'problem' he ever had with minorities, AND whites too btw, no one knew who he was.

Now that the word is getting around, thanks a lot to many minority groups that have formed to help support his campaign, that problem will be solved.

The nonsense we saw here for a while, was just part of a smear campaign. So far all their smears have failed spectacularly. This one is about to implode as more and more AAs are learning about him and getting excited to be a part of his campaign.

[AtomicKitten]

9. Can't hold back the trend; it was just a matter of time. k&r <nt>

[roguevalley]

17. hear, hear, atomickitten. by the way, my girl Queen could take your name she's

so awesomely bad ass. I wish I had uploaded pix. Totally black kitten with a fog horn voice, beats up the two little dogs I have and has endless energy. She is my hero.

[AtomicKitten]

22. ahhhh new baby in the house!

My crew are getting long in the tooth. One cat Lulu age 15, my girl Seven is 13, and my other cat Renfield is 10.

Sounds like Queen is kicking ass and taking names. As it should be. Go kitty!

[JI7]

10. 8.5 margin of error

[John Poet]

47. So give the entire "margin of error" to Hillary...

... and this still can't be spun as anything but more bad news for her.

[uponit7771]

52. Nooo, 9% moe isn't even worth reporting... very skewed, this is bad journalism

[merrily]

143. A 9% drop in a Presidential poll is not worth reporting? Where is that written?

[uponit7771]

161. A 9% moe, it's very unreliable

[merrily]

166. So, it's written nowhere; the margin of error was already factored out--and all in Hillary's favor;

and, as posted above by someone else, give the entire "margin of error" to Hillary...... and this still can't be spun as anything but more bad news for her."

However, reliability had nothing to do with my question.

It's funny how much Hillary's supporters have relied on polls for months, even when she had no competition at all; and suddenly, they suck.

[Dawson Leery]

77. The professional leftists are at it again.

They joined ranks with the far fight to destroy the Clintons.

[Tommy2Tone]

156. True

They go to the far reaches of the right wing media and find every possible smear on Clinton and then post it like it's gospel. Then come back and say Bernie is being smeared.

They and Bernie will lose.

[tex-wyo-dem]

152. Yep, big MoE...but it is useful in one respect...

That it indicates a major shift, one that exceeds the MoE and indicates a trend that mirrors the trends of other state and national polls...

Bernie up, Hillary down...

[Uncle Joe]

11. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Catherina.

[99Forever]

12. It's all about the trend.

Which makes me smile.

[aspirant]

13. What happened to the meme

that Cornell West will have all the AA's running away and hiding from Bernie?

[Metric System]

14. It's one poll with a large MOE. I think both sides need to chill.

[Aerows]

99. "Large Margin of Error"

"Damn, it didn't say what I wanted it to say."

[Metric System]

101. Are you arguing that a large MOE isn't something to take into consideration?

[Aerows]

102. Standard deviation is also something to take into consideration.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain

http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/15981/what-is-the-difference-between-margin-of-error-and-standard-error

[sabrina 1]

158. Those attempting to smear Sanders whose record on Civil Rights is exemplary, with race baiting

and red baiting won't chill, that is their MO, that is what they do. But it doesn't matter, it has done absolutely nothing to harm his campaign, because the general public, and there are lots of polls on this topic which I'm happy to link to, is sick and tired of people like Brocki and Dark Money Funded Super Pac red baiting a good candidate.

They are sick of radio talk show hosts implying that Jews can't be trusted because of dual citizenship, which btw Bernie does not have, and sick to death of the nasty campaigning that hijacks THEIR right to real debate on the ISSUES.

Tell this to those who have called all Sanders supporters 'white supremicists', that is where the comment belongs..

I would hope that no matter how much I disagreed with a Candidate on the issues, which is the case with Hillary, I would never refer to her as an 'old privileged White Woman'. See how that sounds? Well then don't be surprised at the reaction to these tactics coming from ONE side.

And no it isn't both sides, no one on Bernie's campaign has a Super Pac personally smearing Hillary Clinton.

I notice we get the old 'both sides do it' when there is no denying that ONE side is responsible for all this, and the other side responds, 'correctingtherecord' as we will. Lies and nasty implications such as Diane Rehm's 'dual loyalty' meme WILL be corrected which is not 'both sides doing it'.

[Catherina]

15. Oh you mean that *selfless*, *helpful* advice from that other camp

Brother West is treated like a rock star everywhere he goes, from the streets of Ferguson to sold-out appearances in the speaking halls of Chicago.

Any time camp Weathervane dispenses *helpful* advice, an inverse tangent is 100% in order.

[Ed Suspicious]

41. +1

[d_legendary1]

70. But there's one white guy in the pic!

Oh wait...that's Bernie!

[hifiguy]

88. That is priceless.

"Say WHAT?"

[xynthee]

16. It was bound to happen.

I expect that trend to continue.

[Demeter]

18. NO, it's not surprising to anyone paying attention

and it appears that a lot of people of all races and classes ARE paying attention:

as Hillary sinks into her self-made quagmire

and Bernie shines like the Morning Star.

[Catherina]

44. Oh yeah. Not at all surprising. Straight from Netaaaa's mouth today

https://twitter.com/Nettaaaaaaaa/status/649684493410959360

[Godhumor]

19. A total of 98 were polled.

40 picked Clinton
21 picked Biden
17 picked Sanders
20 undecided

The numbers are way too small to make any meaningful conclusions about voting behavior of the subgroup.

By the way, this is exactly the reason CNN goes N/A when there is a large subgroup MoE. Because too many people try to make conclusions about trends that the poll is not designed to detect.

[JI7]

23. so more picked Biden than Sanders ?

[senz]

38. Famous name vs. newcomer

But when people learn about Bernie, they love him.

[uponit7771]

56. Bernies been around for 30 years and the polls get skewed with such small sampling and large MOE

[senz]

62. Quietly working for his constituents, not seeking power, fame, and money.

Imagine that.

Too hard to do? Yeah, probably.

[artislife]

121. I don't know the senators from Rhode Island

Or most states. They are small and far away. I know my senators and a few others who make names for themselves through one event or another. I think most people are like me in this regard. So while he has been toiling away for Vermont, well, if you are an average voter from Nebraska, would you know him? Not likely.

[Number23]

84. More people were UNDECIDED than picked Sanders. But lets all celebrate anyway!!!

[upaloopa]

27. Here too, include Biden to dilute Hillary's numbers

yet the Bernies think the earth shifted.
One way this primary season is different from 2008 is that all media is out to derail Hillary this time and they leave her opponent alone.
Makes it easy for Bernie to have the media fight his battles for him.

[senz]

37. Yeah, Hillary's getting worried about Biden, isn't she?

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/us/politics/hillary-clinton-camp-begins-to-fear-run-by-joe-biden.html

[upaloopa]

48. Who knows? Some reporter writes that and

you buy it hook line and sinker.
Like I said, use the MSM to fight your battles for you.

[senz]

57. Yeah, "news" is so passé, nobody reads it anymore...

[upaloopa]

86. It's not news you know that

[senz]

108. It's not an opinion piece: it's news. A report on current events. Reputable source.

But you don't know that? Too bad.

[upaloopa]

116. It's politically motivated to hurt

Hillary's campaign and you know it

[senz]

118. I don't think that's clear from anything in the report.

But I could criticize it as concentrating too much on the horse race and the riders rather than on issues of importance to the American people and how the candidates differ on them.

[uponit7771]

55. Hell, the republicans are at least honest enough to say they're out to get her on TV the media

... just sits there snarking and raking in the ratings

[sabrina 1]

89. Hillary is losing on the ISSUES and her record on the ISSUES, period. You can call Democrats 'right

wingers' all you want, but people actually DO care about things like the Corruption on Wall St, the influence of the top 1% on our elections with their money, one of the TOP ISSUES in this election for voters across the political spectrum.

If Hillary were my choice of candidate I would not spend my time attacking Americans for their choice of who they believe best represents them, I would FIGHT for her ON THE ISSUES.

But she isn't my candidate. Mine, I don't need to defend on most of the issues. I like that. I defended the Clintons fiercely for years only to watch them betray those of us who had fought with family members on their behalf, cozy up to the 'enemy' who we fought AGAINST on their behalf.

That taught me a lesson, politicians are not our family or friends, including Sanders. So now I look at their records, and where they stand on the issues that are important to Democrats. And that is ALL I care about and will not defend any candidate who votes against my an my family's interests again.

This is how I view it, if I find it hard to defend a candidate on multiple issues, if I feel I can't discuss their record on the issues and need to attack other candidates instead, I tell myself now 'I need another candidate'. And that is what is happening in this election. People will no longer hold their noses when they have a choice not to have to do so.

All the rest is insignificant.

I have no problem defending my candidate on the Issues. That tells me I have made the right decision.

[uponit7771]

111. This is not true given the facts of the last couple of days, her poll numbers are excellent seeing..

... the concerted political effort by the right and the extreme hate filled left

[sabrina 1]

115. She has steadily trended downwards and she is losing key demographics, women eg. I'm talking about

RL. Volunteering for Sanders is an eye opener. Polls, even there she has lost NH and is losing Iowa, Sanders is beating her in Utah of all places, and in WV.

And as more people get to know Sanders, as is happening month by month, her numbers go down.

However, polls are not why I know she is losing support. I personally know former Hillary supporters who can no longer ignore her War Hawk stance, nor her position on Welfare or the TPP or her avoidance of talking about issues, her inconsistent record on major issues, bad judgement, Iraq Vote, which imo, she is still convinced was right. Gay marriage, etc the list is long.

Politicians are not our friends or family, so I have no problem anymore, basing my decisions on THEIR RECORDS. THAT is all they mean to me, what is their record on the major issues they were asked to make decisions on. And Hillary comes up short on most of them.

[Godhumor]

127. You're going to have to source the Utah and WV claims

That are showing her losing to Bernie.

And the only reason, only, her numbers have gone down recently had been due to Biden. Sanders has never moved from the 25% he had averaged since 8/1. She has not lost support to him, only to Biden.

[Metric System]

29. HA!

[senz]

40. So will you be laughing when he enters the race?

You might want to check this out:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/us/politics/hillary-clinton-camp-begins-to-fear-run-by-joe-biden.html

[Metric System]

53. Huh? My laughter has nothing to do with Biden! It's about so few people being polled.

[uponit7771]

54. wow!!! WTF!?!! they need 10 times that much for a reasonable sample. This is bad journalism

... and at the most more FUD

[Number23]

81. But as this thread proves, there are certain folks willing to eat this tripe up with a knife and

spoon. Because they care sooooooo much about our vote and our issues, you see. So it's doing exactly what some so desperately need for it to do.

I expect Hillary's numbers will drop significantly in the AA community over the next few months. It will be difficult for her to sustain damn near 90% black support until next year. The fact that Biden seems to be gaining alot more ground with black people than Sanders, even in this minuscule poll, should cause those jumping up and down in this thread some serious concern.

[uponit7771]

113. Yeap, and this poll is with Biden in which would split black votes

[Number23]

124. Yep. It's an interesting poll but even the article took great pains to note the margin of error

and that it wasn't in line with other polls.

So the premature crowing complete with announcements that black DUers who are mostly undecided "Thank GOODNESS don't represent the majority of black people" is particularly precious and adorable -- especially when you consider that undecided got more votes in this poll than Sanders.

[artislife]

112. But I first saw this poll on FB

From my feed from The Root.


https://www.facebook.com/theRoot/info/?tab=page_info


A little info on them
139,178People Talking About This
382,729Total Page Likes
0.8%from last week
3,028
New Page Likes

Ah, Social media...gotta love it!

[840high]

20. k/r

[1norcal]

21. Thanks

The Bush Clinton era is over...About time!

[Darb]

24. Uh Huh, ok, right, got it.

Whatev.

[Cheese Sandwich]

25. Every time she appears in public her poll numbers drop for some reason.

She was on TV a couple times so that that explains it.

[Metric System]

31. Or it's, you know, the large MOE.

[A Simple Game]

82. You know that MOE is plus or minus don't you? It could also very well be worse for Hillary.

Doesn't have to mean better for Hillary.

[Metric System]

92. I guess we'll know if other polls show similar results.

[A Simple Game]

104. Yup, just like after the first poll showed Bernie ahead in New Hampshire. n/t

[AgingAmerican]

135. But what about...

Larry and Curly?

[AlbertCat]

26. Geez....

I wonder what would happen if we had a DEM DEBATE....

And people got to see the candidate side by side pushing their ideas.

[blackspade]

28. But, again, the inclusion of Biden undermines the viability...

Of this poll.
I am beyond sick of seeing his name in polling when he isn't running.
It makes the polling worthless.

[senz]

30. So glad to hear this! Good news for Blacks and all who are not in the 1%.

This is a very hopeful trend and it's great to hear that it's validated on social media.

Looks like the "divide and conquer" tactic didn't take.

[JI7]

33. even if this poll was accurate it shows that Biden is gaining black voters

who were support in her without him in the race.

All this shows is what other polls have shown .

[nyabingi]

35. If Bernie keeps making himself known and visible

to people of color, especially Black and Latino voters, he should have the nomination wrapped up.

I'm waiting for Hillary's campaign to notice he abandonment by Black voters again and for her (or Bill) to say some racist bullsh-t again.

[Catherina]

45. Funny thing is I got the news from a Hillary Clinton news feed lol

I'm waiting too.

[WI_DEM]

36. Looks like Biden is the real winner

[George II]

39. It's a crappy poll from a crappy polling organization. Go beyond the spoon-fed media bits...

....and look at their website.

They haven't done a New Hampshire poll since June and haven't done a Massachussets poll (where they're located!) since April.

Many of the questions asked are subjectively skewed toward a negative view of Hillary Clinton. I should print out the PDF document on their website, my wife is getting ready to change our cat box.

[Fred Sanders]

43. Chaffetz-quality graphs? "Plunging" wants it's definition back!

[ChiciB1]

46. Wile This Is A Very, Very Early & Low Count

poll, to me it IS beginning to show something very telling. Despite the fact that Bernie Sanders has received only Eight minutes out of 503 minutes of political candidate coverage it seems he's gaining ground despite this MSM lock-out!

I got these numbers from listening to The Thom Hartmann Show the past two or three days so don't have a link. I presume someone could find a way to post this information from his show. I know how to post on blogs but my tech acumen is sorely lacking. However, since I know I heard him talk about this several times I'm fairly sure he referenced where he got this information. Don't have any reason to think Thom is making this up as he tries hard to be accurate AND is very good about telling his callers when he's not well informed on a subject.

Given that the MSM has continuously told us that Bernie would be unable to attract black/hispanic or crossover voters it seems to me that TPTB might well be proven wrong. AND, they're STILL adding Biden in the polls. While I love Joe Biden, if it were not for Bernie I would support him over Hillary, but NOT over Bernie. Bernie just talks my language and I'm feeling as more and more people get more knowledge about him and what he stands for, his candidacy will gain strength.

More and more I tend to think Biden isn't going to run, despite how much he's respected. He could be waiting to see what progress Bernie is making, but the longer he waits I feel he's losing ground because many are going to be unwilling to switch candidaes. JMHO.

But for me, this indicates that once again MSM IS WRONG! Our Democratic Party had better start realizing that perhaps they're NOT going to be able to ignore Bernie like they are now. I KNOW I'm becoming extremely upset with a Party that I've been are member of for so very long. I've said this before, but after the primary here in FL I'm very close to switching to NPA. Not something I thought I would ever do.

[ibegurpard]

49. bad poll, margin of error too large, questions slanted..

Too early to be reliable...have I covered all the objections?
Until more corroborating polls start showing a trend. Then goalpost-movers will have to get to work.
And here we were all being told that the Black vote was solidly locked up by Clinton... as if Black folks are monolithic thinkers...what a bunch of paternalistic claptrap that was and everyone knew it!

[uponit7771]

60. 98 people were polled, that's not even a reportable sample and the MOE was 9%... this is not only a

... bad poll it looks like FUD

[ibegurpard]

63. OK

And the next one?

[Catherina]

75. Hah! +1000 n/t

[uponit7771]

50. Why report a poll with 8.5 moe !?!?!? What was the point? tia

[INdemo]

51. Wait a minute here....

But Nate Silvers said Hillary had the African American vote sewed up and there was no way Bernie Sanders could win
What?

[uponit7771]

59. 98 people polled, small AA sample and a 9% moe, this poll isn't even worth reporting. It's bad ...

... journalism and looks like FUD

[Metric System]

61. The "journalist" didn't want to let facts get in the way of his story.

[6chars]

71. The AA sample was the 98 people, the 9%MOE is for the AA estimate

[INdemo]

139. I questioned a poll with only 229 samplings

with Hillary leading by a huge margin and it was considered accurate (moe 4.8 ) by Hillary supporters

Zogby once said a poll of less that 1000 and various geographical locals is strictly for the media's advantage.

[uponit7771]

162. Cause there are enough polls with 4 times that much sampling saying the same thing. If there were

... corresponding polls to this one with this one as an outlyer but saying the same thing it'd be ok.

This poll is not only a not well done poll but its an outlyer...

People can believe what they want

[Fearless]

165. Here's how it goes...

Poll one... It's not indicative of anything... Don't trust polls... Biased... Sample size... Margin of error...

Poll two... Shout the same thing louder...

Poll three... Make wild accusations and shout louder... Use ad hominem attacks against posters because their own facts are lacking.

Poll four... Silence.

[Catherina]

73. Nate Silvers, lol. He's being paid not to change his tune until forced to

If I had nothing better to do and I wanted to be an ass, I'd repost all the tweets from brothers and sisters supporting Bernie passionately. But why waste the time?

Hillary's support of and support from the prison industry alone is a deal breaker.

This one just came across a few seconds ago with the caption "Penn state is all in for Bernie #FeelTheBern #bernieblast"

[Android3.14]

58. All races are figuring out who represents the people

And it isn't Hillary "Veruca Salt" Clinton.

Looks like that race nastiness from the HRC camp has backfired.

Again.

[Mabus]

64. Native Americans are also trending to Sanders

at least where I work. I work with NAs from all over the country and we talk about Bernie. The families of co-workers back home on Federal Indian lands and reservations are liking Bernie too.

I know it is anecdotal but it's a good sign.

[ibegurpard]

69. that can't be true!

Do they drive Volvos and sip lattes?

[Mabus]

76. No

We drive clunkers and have rez dogs.

[Catherina]

74. It's a great sign. People are done with establishment politics

I don't know what idiot came up with this business of having votes locked up before the Primaries had barely taken off.

[Mabus]

80. True dat

Yeah, a friend of mine is Meskawkie and her relatives up at Tama attended Bernie's rally at the tribal HQ. They are now feeling the Bern.

But seriously, Bernie going to visit an Indian reservation meant a lot to Native Peoples. Most of the time we feel ignored in presidential elections. We talked about it at work for days. People were impressed.

[hifiguy]

95. That is the one and only obvious thing to be taken away from this

cycle so far - people are sick to the teeth of Establishment/Status Quo politicians and no one says Establishment/Status Quo more loudly than HRH.

[azmom]

100. Status quo oozes from every pore of her being.

[tomm2thumbs]

68. Just wait until the rest of the shoes drop later this October... Obama related ones

I'll keep my lid on until I see them start to pop up, but it's not going to be pretty

[SoapBox]

72. It's just the tip of the Sanderstorm.

I'll just bet you dinner, that many in the African American community felt that they had no choice, if they wanted to vote Democrat...I had been preparing to hold my nose and vote for Ms. Inevitable.

Then along comes Bernie! And I now have someone that I can enthusiastically support.

It's just taking some time for the AA community to meet Bernie, find out about his common sense platform and get on board.

Look for her numbers to keep tanking.

[Catherina]

130. The future's so bright!

[Persondem]

90. The sample size of Black Dems polled puts the MoE north of 10%

So comparing this poll to a previous poll with a MoE of 10% or so is really worthless. Having non-candidate Biden in there makes it even more so.

This poll from a week ago with a marginally higher sample put HRC's favorabilities with Blacks at 80%

[sabrina 1]

117. I don't need polls, I've been on minority blogs for years, and following the Ferguson protesters

since Michael Brown's murder. What we see here on DU is so far removed from RL re what AAs actually think, it is like entering the twilight zone at times.

And in RL, no AA I know us now a Hillary supporter. Once they, like everyone else in the country, learn about Sanders record, they are signing up to work for him. So rapidly in fact, I'm having difficulty keeping up with all the new AA support for Bernie groups.

This poll simply reflects what is happening. And it is and has been offensive to have a few people here, mostly White people, tell AAs who they are supporting.

[Persondem]

120. Your experience informs your reality, as it should be. But using a poll of 100

AA to claim something significant about AA nationwide is disingenuous at best, and gets close to propaganda. Other polls show a different reality.

[senz]

103. Valid poll. Suffolk U. & USA Today. Nothing wrong with the methodology.

Statement of Methodology: This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between September 24 and September 28, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age or older, residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and who intend to vote in 2016. Quota and demographic information -- including region, race, and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landlines (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents in each state. States were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the households were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. The margin of error for the Republican primary subset of 380 voters is +/- 5.03 percentage points. The margin of error for the Democratic primary subset of 430 voters is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10741.php

Looks solid.

[Baltimore18]

105. This poll does not appear, to me, to distinguish between black and white voters.

https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_1_2015_complete_marginals.pdf

[senz]

110. You're looking at the questionaire.

Here's how they got the demographic info: " Quota and demographic information -- including region, race, and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data"

Here are the results (showing demographics): http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_1_2015_complete_tables.pdf

[Baltimore18]

119. I see it now. Thanks for your help.

[senz]

126. No problem.

[Scootaloo]

128. African Americans have been very adamant about how the candidates can't take them for granted

[Catherina]

129. Oh yeah. "sadly for her, we ARE smart enough to figure out Bernie Sanders is better"

[nc4bo]

132. :) My FB friend Vcubed telling it like it is. nt

[Catherina]

133. She's awesome. I have much admiration for her n/t

[Nedsdag]

149. k&r n/t

[AgingAmerican]

138. I can't wait til the debates start

nt

[MannyGoldstein]

141. It's only a matter of time...

Certain folks can froth that Bernie and his Bernie Supporters are white supremacists and whatnot, but people eventually figure out what's true and what's false. All the more so because Bernie speaks the Truth, plainly, clearly, and forcefully.

Thanks for this good news!

[99th_Monkey]

146. The ugly Clinton lies about Bernie will not stand, and will back-fire

Just like Brock's smear did. Go Bernie!

To know and learn about Bernie, is to love him. <-- This

... will keep happening, because Bernie is the real deal.

[Catherina]

151. You're welcome Manny

The laughable White Supremacist meme was debunked so hard with simple truth, it's just exposing the PUMA's for what they really are now.

Who is more foolish, the child afraid of the dark or the man afraid of the light?

[NuclearDem]

144. There's a saying among statisticians

If you torture data enough, you can get it to say whatever you want it to say.

[KoKo]

145. Recommend!

[Tommy2Tone]

154. The poll is garbage

According to the poll every dem is polling way under 50%. Too bad they didn't include the Donald, he loves black people.

[NealK]

157. K&R

[OilemFirchen]

159. Anyone relying on this poll for trend analysis should note this parenthetical:

(Sanders also saw a big decline in the number of voters who hadn't heard of him. In July, 23 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of Black voters were unfamiliar with him. Now the percentages are 5 for both.)

That's it, then, right? With 95% knowledgeable about Sanders, he polls 30ish in popularity and in the low 20s electability.

The "yeah but they don't know who he is" meme is put to bed. Yes?

[uponit7771]

164. This is good info.... thx