Politico: "Gingrich appears deadly serious about a long, bloody march all the way to Tampa "

[DCBob]

NEWT GINGRICH'S LONG MARCH
By JONATHAN MARTIN and MAGGIE HABERMAN | 1/30/12 4:29 AM EST
LUTZ, Fla. – Mitt Romney and much of the GOP establishment may be exultant over Newt Gingrich’s likely defeat here Tuesday, but the former speaker has a message for his detractors: he’s not going anywhere.

Gingrich is making the case that Romney can’t get a majority at the convention, his small circle of advisers are already eyeing favorable states in March and April and those close to the former back-bench bomb-thrower are testifying to his legendary perseverance.

Florida may well be a painful body blow, but Gingrich appears deadly serious about a long, bloody march all the way to Tampa - a scenario that is giving the GOP establishment nightmares.

At 68 and already 14 years past his speakership, this is likely Gingrich’s last chance at the political prize that he’s been coveting for at least two decades. He’s not Romney circa 2008 or Tim Pawlenty – being a good soldier and falling in line in hopes of being rewarded four years hence isn’t an option.

lots more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72131.html

========

I think this article makes sense. Gingrich has nothing to lose and has lots to gain by staying in. Even if he doesnt win, which I sure he wont, he can be the voice of conservatives/teapartiers and a huge nasty thorn in the side of Romney.. a role I am sure Gingrich relishes. The GOPer establishment must be freaking.

[Botany]

1. Newt can do what he wants but he failed to register to be on the ballot in the primaries ...

.... of several states such as Virginia and Missouri so not unless he wins other states in
a landslide the unlikable rich guy* win be the nominee.

DU meet up @ Skinner's house in Jan. 2013 for the pre inauguration and post inauguration
parties ..... I get dibs on the sofa in the family room.


*

[DCBob]

2. I agree he has no chance to win it but..

all he needs to do is get enough delegates to block Mittens from getting the majority which seems possible given that Paul is also likely to stay in it for the long haul.

[customerserviceguy]

5. And how does he do that?

The answer is, get nearly enough himself for the nomination. Once it becomes winner-take-all, Ron Paul won't be getting any more delegates, all he'll have is the handful he has now, plus whatever few he can pick up in a caucus state or two in February.

You could say that Willard is the one keeping Noot from getting the nomination, and my guess is that the tea partiers and the fundies will look at it from that angle if each of them have about 45-47% of a first ballot victory by Tampa.

[DCBob]

10. Its hard to say how the math will turn out at this point.

but it does look like Newt is in it for the long haul which is probably good for us.

[Botany]

13. It will be over by 3-6-12 (Super Tuesday)

Mitt will no doubt be short of the total # needed to lock up the
nomination* but his lead will be so great that Newt's money
will dry up and the press will stop following him as much as
they are doing now.

When you can't get on the ballot of the state you live in (VA)
it is really hard to be taken seriously as a future POTUS.

Newt is like that little yap dog who is alway running after the
car but will never catch it.

* after super tuesday

[MjolnirTime]

18. You act like logic applies to this.

[Jim Lane]

22. I give Newt a little more time. He'll hang in until the end of March.

Even if he's trailing badly after Super Tuesday, he can pick up some delegates in the rest of that month. For example, I'd think he'll have decent chances in Alabama and Mississippi (March 13). Even in a state like Illinois (March 20), where he's unlikely to win, he should make enough of a showing to get a few delegates.

Beginning April 1, states are allowed to hold winner-take-all Republican primaries, and I assume most or all of them will. That's when it's curtains for Newt.

[customerserviceguy]

41. Yes, on both points

He's like the Energizer Bunny of angry attack muffins. Hmmm, come to think of it, don't we associate rabbits with promiscuity?

[DCBob]

46. Well its not looking too good for the Noot tomorrow.

but I think he will just keep on going regardless.

I am already thinking about those tasty beers!

[customerserviceguy]

48. Yeah, I've been watching the polls

and I figure that the weekend surprise was Santorum and his daughter's 'miracle' recovery. I'd bet that most people didn't even know he had a child with a birth defect. It should gain him some sympathy vote from that might have gone to Noot.

And beers are always tasty when shared with a good pal, no matter who's buying!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

25. Where does Skinner live? I may be up for it... :)

[MADem]

3. Petty little shithead, isn't he? Like an angry dog with a bone!

He believes his own publicity, and he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room.

Already that high whine of his is getting tiresome. AGAIN!

[DCBob]

4. For sure, but he relishes that role.

The man probably has a bad case of narcissistic personality disorder,

[MADem]

35. I think you're right! He certainly is in love with himself! nt

[Stratetalker]

6. Yeah but....

While we all know that a protracted, nasty, blow by blow is fun to watch and detrimental to both mitt and newt, I'm afraid it will only lengthen the right's deep hate for Obama. Repub office holders will kowtow to this and return to their blocking ways. We need to work to get the House back, the Senate stronger, and gain some more Dems downballot

[MADem]

38. Actually, I think the opposite might happen.

Given the choice between two shitty candidates, the GOP Borg will have a hard time mustering enthusiasm, particularly when the losing side is forced to cheer at the convention for the winner after painting that winner as a devil for a protracted period. Without enthusiasm, it's also hard to muster up a big old dose of Obama Hate.

I think the battle, if nasty enough, might produce some voter suppression. Much of it might come out of religious bigotry. The Thou-Shalt-Not Christians might not vote for the Mormon Romney. Or the Fundy finger-waggers might not like the idea that multiple-marriages-Newt is wrapped in the arms of that "cultish" Catholic Church. They may just get drunk and forget to vote on election day. They may write in Pat Robertson or Ronald Reagan as a protest vote if they do show up. They may figure, "Oh well, four more years of that 'awful' Obama, but I've survived four already, I can do four more," and just say to hell with the process entirely. The evangelical slice of the vote has been known to do that on occasion.

When all you have, like the GOP does, is a choice between "Poop" and "Turd," sometimes the only reasonable thing to do is .... flush!

[cultcomedypicturshow]

7. Newt vs Romney Rap Battle :-)

Insane on the Campaign

(w/ Flavor Flav)

[KharmaTrain]

8. He'll Stay In As Long As Adelson Pays The Bills...

A side benefit from Citizens United...Gneut doesn't have to raise another dime as long as Adelson and his Likudnik buddies keep throwing money at Cadrich. He may not win the nomination but he'll bloody up Mittens real bad and help further divide his inept and corrupt party.

[DCBob]

12. If Newt can make the case that he can force a brokered convention by staying in...

the money will also come in.

[totodeinhere]

26. I think that's a very real possibility.

If Gingrich and Paul between them can deny Romney a majority of delegates it can happen, and with the proportional system they have why not? Romney can win a plurality but not quite a majority, and I think that both Gingrich and Paul are stubborn enough to stick it out.

[no_hypocrisy]

9. Not necessarily.

First, Newt goes as far as his donations and votes take him. There's only been 5% of the primary votes tallied in the aggregate thus far. Second, I don't suppose Shel Adelson and his wife want to pony up another $5 million apiece to keep Newt competitive (especially as a casino operator would know when to walk away from the table after a string of losses). Third, if he doesn't get the nomination, then Newt wants to be a player, whether he wants a place in a Romney Administration or he wants to dictate the platform in exchange for his delegates.

[tanyev]

11. Lee's Revenge.

[ecstatic]

14. I don't see it... He wasn't prepared at all last week

He squandered a 9 point lead in Florida and looked like a horrible debater last week. He came back from the dead three times (in the polls) and still managed to f*ck things up. As much as I was looking forward to Grinch winning the nomination, it's not gonna happen!

[MjolnirTime]

19. He keeps coming back because most of the GOP can't stand Romney.

This fact isn't going to change. And that gives Gingrich more than a fighting chance.

[totodeinhere]

27. He didn't squander a lead. Romeny's attack machine got him.

Romney is doing his best to try to buy the nomination.

[WI_DEM]

15. If you're serious, Newt, why did you allow yourself to lose Florida?

you were leading in the polls after SC and then you come out with two dismal debate performances and allow Mittens to surge. If you had won FL you would have received all the delegates and really could say you had a real chance.

[emulatorloo]

20. He had a bad day.

His LAS VEGAS billionaire is certainly serious.

[Found in Yonkers]

16. DR

It's personal, and I hope he punches a thousand holes in Mitt's fable.

[Renew Deal]

17. I'm not convinced that Gingrich can get the delegates to stay in it

The next few states after Florida are very favorable to Romney.

[grantcart]

24. From here on out it is all proportional

They changed the rules.

Unless Romney gets 51% then he cannot get what he needs.

[denem]

39. ALL proportional grantcart?

Florida was the only winner takes all state? Wow.

[grantcart]

40. everything from now till April proportional

Florida negotiated a special deal =winner take all but half the delegates.

[DCBob]

44. Has anyone done the math..

to see if its plausible, feasible, probable for Romney to get 51% by end of this fiasco?

[grantcart]

49. it is not

let say that between Paul and Santorum they take out 15% leaving 85%

To get 51% you would then have to get 60% of all the rest of the delegates in order to get 51%.

That is why even with only 2 competitive candidates, Obama and Clinton you have to go deep into the calendar to get 51%.

On top of this you have about 400 super delegates that are sitting on the sideline, or 8 Floridas.

it is in their interest to be the last guy in to hold out for the biggest committment for their PAC or future job etc.

It should be noted that at this point Romney has had his biggest win with only 40%.

[rocktivity]

53. DING DING DING! Grantcart, you're our grand prize winner!

To get 51% you would then have to get 60% of all the rest of the delegates...That is why even with only 2 competitive candidates, (like) Obama and Clinton, you have to go deep into the calendar to get 51%.

Basically, Gingrich is trying to do to Romney what Obama did to Hillary. When she failed to win early, often, and decisively, all Obama had to do was either win OR stop her from getting more than 60% of the vote. By the time the Pennsylvania and West Virgina primaries rolled around, Hillary's "blowout" margins of victory were reduced to a wash pledged delegate-wise. The superdelegates saw the writing on the wall, and the rest is history.


rocktivity

[Turbineguy]

21. The Tampa Death March

It will go up in history!

[Manifestor_of_Light]

50. Aren't they called tampons, residents of Tampa?

long and bloody indeed!!!

[davidpdx]

54. Damn you should copyright that

It could be the new pun for the Republican National Convention.

[AtheistCrusader]

23. Like Sherman's March to the Sea or what?

[pkdu]

28. Or Sheldons (repeated) March to the ATM n/t

[DonCoquixote]

29. Never forget Florida

Yes, Mitt may have bought himself Victory now, but as this goes on, the Tea Party will realize they ar54e being hidden, and they will NOT be hidden in a place where they rejected Jeb Bush's puppet over Rick Scott. Newt can make Florida the ugly, bloody fight, especially if Mitt fails to pick Rubio. Also, do not forget the Jeb Bush has every reason to want to see Newt do damage, as he knows that while he can try in 2016, there are already many young turks ready to pave him flat!

[JNelson6563]

30. I concur completely with your take on it.

And Newt's always been just about Newt so it's not like this is uncharacteristic. I'm just delighted he's back on the scene, leaving the usual narcissist's wake of chaos and destruction over in GOP-land. Awesome!

Julie

[kemah]

31. Newt has nothing to lose by staying in and everything to win

Newt will stay all the way to the convention. He has nothing to lose. The more exposure he gets the higher his personal wealth will go up. It was always about the book tour and his promoting his DVDs. His first staff quit on him for that reason. Who the hells goes on a Greek luxury tour during the primary season.
More cowbells, more debates, more audience participation in the debates, booing and cheering, is an educational experience. That's why they want no more debates. The GOP hates informed voters. You can not spin the booing of soldiers, cheering of let them die, cheering for electric fences, just shows their true colors.

[kemah]

32. Reminds me of the Long March by Chairman Mao.

[DonCoquixote]

33. There is a SERIOUS CAVEAT

The more Newt attacks Romney, the more he can look like he is "not that bad" of a conservative. Kepp in m ind, he is counting on disaffected Democrats to stay home or write in Vanity votes (Dennis K forever!), on the grounds that "he really won't be all that different than Obama.

It is not enough that we enjoy the Newt vs Mitt show, it is IMPERATIVE that we explain, in clear terms, that Mitt is every bit as much of a menace to the nation and world as Newt. Just because he seems not as noxious does not mean he is any less toxic. He will kill Social Security, he will kill Abortion and Gay rights, just as surely as Newt would. A noose may be messier than a lethal injection, but the undertaker gets paid the same.

[Beacool]

34. Gingrich is such a vile man.

He's a megalomaniac who will not hesitate to bring down his party if he doesn't get his way.

Doesn't he realize that in poll after poll he is disliked by more than 60% of the population? How does he think that he can win over Obama?

Not a fan of Romney, but Gingrich is positively scary. Ditto for his plastic wife.

[Beacool]

47. It seems to be a consensus among Republicans who served with him in the 90s.

They hate the guy. Even Dole, who mostly has stayed out of the limelight, wrote a scathing statement against Gingrich. To the establishment Republicans Gingrich is poison. Only the most conservative, the Tea Party types, are the ones who are supporting him.

[Jester Messiah]

37. It all comes down to money. Does he have enough in his warchest to go the distance?

I'm guessing not. Especially if he blows it in FL.

[creeksneakers2]

42. A couple of factors the pundits

aren't talking about.

1) Newt leads in National polls, although only by 1 point in the most recent one. There are three primary/ caucus states that have polls from January. Romney is up by 9 in Ohio, but he's only up by 5 in Michigan, which is considered to be his second best state. Gingrich is out in front in Minnesota by 18.

2) If, or maybe when, Santorum quits or collapses Newt could come up with the majority of Santorum's votes. When polled as a two person race, Newt is way ahead of Romney.

[Number23]

43. Of course he is. He is a megalomanaical hare-brained idiot

[mike_c]

45. that's what the GOP establishment gets for keeping such a nasty turd...

...around for all these years. Look! It reared it's ugly head and bit them on the ass!

[SemperEadem]

51. that's because neut has no loyalty to his country

only to himself and his overblown ego. He is eying the treasury to pay for trinkets to hang around callista's scrawny chicken neck.

he cares nothing about the welfare and good of this country: he cares only about lining his pockets and inflating his ego.

[Skittles]

52. BRING IT ON!

WOOT!

[Akoto]

55. He'll hang on to the bitter end. His ego demands it.

I'll bet it really burns him up that he's losing the nomination to a living Ken doll.

[Comedywriter1214]

56. Shhhhh...be vrey, vewy quiet...

Newt is actually in the middle of a clearly defined plan to land a Cabinet Post in the 2nd Obama administration. I understand he wants to be Secretary of Commerce...Energy...and, uh...what's the Tthird one? I'm sorry, I just can't remember the Third one. Thoughts at 3 A.M. http://thoughtsatthreeam.blogspot.com/?spref=tw