Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 300 safe electoral votes!

[Ira]

Most of us know that Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) produces exceptionally high quality electoral college vote analysis. Another analyst that also does excellent quantitative E. C. vote analysis is Sam Wang of Princeton Election Consortium (http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/). He presently assigns 300 safe votes to Obama and 191 safe votes to Romney, with 47 tossups. Without tossups, he projects Obama 332, Romney 206. His prediction beat Nate's in 2008.

He is definitely worth following.

[sellitman]

1. Where is that dotted line?

Oh, and welcome to DU.

[ailsagirl]

2. Thanks for posting

While I'm glad to see those high numbers, the very most I can be is 'cautiously optimistic.' How I wish I could believe Obama's got everything sewn up--I just don't trust the enemy, esp. when I hear that KKKarl Rove is back on the scene, doing God-knows-what, lurking in the shadows. And Cheney. And lots of others, I'm sure.

[Ira]

3. Another interesting Princeton application

He also runs a "what if" Romney gets a 2% popular vote boost in every state. The model shows Romney's electoral vote is unchanged at 191.

To see the analysis result, go to http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/, scroll down the page and click the link that says "With 2% for Romney".

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. Thanks for posting Ira.

[TexasTowelie]

5. Thanks for the link and welcome to DU!

[fujiyama]

6. A little surprised about FL being "solid" or "safe"

I think Obama has a stronger chance of winning VA...

Otherwise, I'm thinking this map looks about right. I think NC and IN may be the only flips, and that too due to the remarkably close margin last time.

[grantcart]

7. Thanks

what does the +2 for Obama show?

For some reason I couldn't open it up.

[Ira]

8. 2% + for Obama

moves him to 304, all of which is to indicate that the popular vote in every state can be 2% higher or 2% lower than polls today on average indicate and the result is the same: Obama victory!

There have been some recent postings about desperation on the right about the disaster that appears to be looming with Romney as their nominee and the utter disbelief that Obama may actually be reelected. And I believe that is a correct assessment of the current mental state of Republicans that understand what is happening.

However, the news from the polls of late is so good for Obama that I worry that the exurberance on the left may lead to more difficulty in fundraising for Obama. The real test will be in September when the rightwing super Pac ads inundate the swing states with outright lies. If Obama cannot push back, it won't take much in the way of voter suppression to turn Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Florida red. Then we have a very problematic race.

[brooklynite]

9. Poor labeling...

Call them "likely" if you want, but I would -never- mark states like Ohio and Florida as "Safe", based on models using only polling data to date. This is going to be a close national election, and any number of issues could shift the trend line in the last three months.

[WI_DEM]

10. for the moment.

[Scuba]

11. Sweet! Now everybody get back to work.