Obama ahead in VA and Wisconsin; Romney leads in Colorado (Quinnipiac University/CBS/NYT poll)

[Marzupialis]

Two states that Barack Obama won in 2008 - after going for former President Bush in 2004 - are now split between President Obama and Mitt Romney, according to the latest Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times swing state poll.

Romney is ahead of the president in the swing state of Colorado, 50 percent to 45 percent. The poll shows a key part of Mr. Obama's Colorado coalition from 2008 -- college-educated white voters - in play this year.

Mr. Obama, meanwhile, leads Romney in Virginia, 49 percent to 45 percent, thanks in part to strong support from women and black voters.

In a third important state, Wisconsin, Mr. Obama has a 6-point lead over Romney, 51 percent to 45.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57488777/poll-romney-leads-in-colo-obama-in-va-wis/

On balance, I'd say this is good news.

Colorado is the state with the least Electoral Votes of these 3 (VA=13, WI=10, CO=9). and bear in mind that polls here are conflicting.
Anything can happen before November.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Don't buy it. Sorry...

Hard for me to buy the Colorado poll. For starters, even Rasmussen comes out and says the race is tied (and they're right-leaning). Secondly, PPP came out with a poll yesterday that showed Obama leading by 6. In fact, no poll, going back to February, has Romney leading in Colorado:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

That is an 11-point swing compared to the PPP poll, a 6 point swing from the Rasmussen poll and a 4 point swing over the entire average.

This poll is wrong. And not just because it shows Obama losing - it doesn't coincide with any other recent poll.

Unfortunately, because this poll is wrong, I'm going to assume the VA and WI polls are wrong as well. Throw all three out.

[Greywing]

4. Hard for me to buy the Colorado poll either

Wonder where the polling "sample" came from ... the Springs?

[woolldog]

11. The Obama campaign is seeing the same thing as this poll

That's why he dropped what he was doing and is on his way to Colorado now. Obama's on the ropes there.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. LOL

Colorado is a swing state. I never said it was in the bag for Obama. It's close and will remain close. But Obama campaigning there doesn't mean much - considering he campaigns in almost all swing states (he'll be in Iowa too, so, I guess he must be on the ropes there! And he was in Virginia not too long ago! Guess that means he's gonna lose that too!).

Stop trolling.

[longship]

2. 50% is the magic number.

When a poll shows a majority, that's death for the opponent, depending on the margin of error. But when staff see a majority in a poll, that's when you break out the champaign. It means, basically, that you've sealed the deal.

This far out, not so much, however. But it looks like Rmoney might take Colorado, and Obama will take Wisconsin. This, strictly from a rule of thumb.

The deal here is that Rmoney is tanking. His trends are negative. We've got about three months to the election and both conventions are yet to come. Meanwhile Obama is playing it cool as a cucumber and Rmoney remains the same out of touch douche. While Barack hugs people, Rmoalit insults them. Obama draws crowds while Mitt has to pay for Twitter followers.

It's pathetic really. But we need to take back the fucking House. We need to keep a majority in the Senate.

Work, work, work!

BTW: Ad at bottom of page is Take the 2012 Congressional Tea Party Survey. Click Here!

[Scuba]

3. Don't go counting on Wisconsin just yet. Our elections are a mess...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10844328

[WI_DEM]

5. As usual one not so great poll and people are saying it just can't be (with Colorado)

the thing is we can't always just pick and choose polls we like and don't like based on results. In the case of Colorado we have three polls now in one day. One is favorable to the president (PPP), one is a draw (Ras, which may be in its own way favorable to Obama) and one is favorable to Romney. My feeling is this means that CO is a true toss-up and we will have to work hard to win it. I consider Quinnipiac a pretty good outfit and PPP a good outfit, so putting their polls together I think we have a real contest in CO.

[Robbins]

6. Well

Let's look at Q's recent polls.Obama ahead In PA,Ohio,florida,Wisconsin,and Virginia.Romney ahead In Colorado.Who Is doing better
here?Plus Obama has improved since Q's last poll of Virginia.

Some ou there who dismissed Q's poll of florida,Ohio,and Pa will like teir poll of colorado..

[ProSense]

7. Poll sample:

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/407781/latest-quinnipiac-new-york-times-cbs-poll.pdf

Note, the CO sample by party is skewed Republican by 5 points and fairly even in terms of independent leaners.

In VA and WI, the samples by party are skewed Democratic by 7 points. The independent leaners, however, are skewed Republican by 14 points in VA (a 7 point advantage) and 8 points in WI (break even). Yet the President comes out ahead in those two states.

[woolldog]

13. um, so what?

You want them to re-weight the results based on some pre conceived notion of what the right party ID breakdown should be? That's what Rasmussen does and they suck because of it.

Is the party ID breakdown for CO here different than what other Colorado polls are finding? If not, then it might not be the outlier we wish it to be.

[woolldog]

12. QU is an excellent pollster.

Survey USA is the other really good one I pay attention to.

Ras I usually toss int he trash and PPP....meh.

[center rising]

8. Not buying the Colorado projection

That race is not a 5 point lead for Romney!!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. CO is not so hard for me to swallow. Why? The recent tragedy sent new gun purchases through

the roof. I can totally see the NRA and Teabag nuts ginning up the "Obama is going to take your guns if he wins" rhetoric. This will scare white people to the polls who wouldn't ordinarily think of supporting Romney. I do think it has an effect on low- and middle-income whites, in particular.

[helpisontheway]

10. VA

I hope the poll for Virginia is correct! All I'm seeing in Williamsburg area is Romney signs (gag!). Last time Obama stickers were all over vehicles and yard signs were up. Have not noticed any Romney or Obama stickers on vehicles. Guess it might be too early for some people. I will be ill if Romney wins this state. Come on Northern Virginia make Virginia blue again!