2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMy Prediction for the Debates..(everyone else is doing it)
That Martin O'Malley will walk away with much higher numbers in the polls following the debates..
DanTex
(20,709 posts)I think they will too.. His commericals are starting on TV here.. and they are very good
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)Peacetrain
(22,875 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)my concern is that O'Malley, Chafee, and webb will get robbed of time in order to make it a real showdown between Clinton and Sanders. Everyone should get equal time especially if there's only five on the stage.
ok, my prediction:
1. omalley will get the biggest poll bump. he is going to go from an unknown to a pretty well-known almost overnight. That in combination with his views and his charisma will gain him a lot of fans imo.
2. Bernie will get the second biggest poll bump. His progressive ideas are going to really win over people who don't know who he is yet, and this is a big antiestablishment year and his income inequality fight is going to really resonate.
3. Hillary will have an poor performance and her sudden progressive costume will be shown for what it is, which is a fake. She'll have a slight drop in the polls initially, and then will continue to down slide.
4. chafee will get a slight bump for being antiwar and because a lot of people don't know who he is.
5. webb might get the tiniest of bumps just due to the name recognition factor but I don't expect his position to change much.
6. The increasing popularity of O'Malley Bernie and Chafee will probably come largely at the expense of Hillary and of people figuring out that at this point it's unlikely Biden is going to run.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)O'Malley is more problematic because he has to stand out from Chafee and Webb -- three mainstream men, and I'm not familiar enough with their skills to guess how they'll do. Only that there are three of them who have to differentiate themselves from each other -- as opposed to silver-haired iconoclast Bernie and to Hillary, who's--Hillary.
O'Malley's 6'1" and better looking than the others, which will help. Chafee's 5'10" and Webb's probably also a bit shorter. They all have brown hair.
I also safely and predictably predict that the media will play it like a ball game, announce some winning plays, and declare a winner. I predict their winner will not be HRC. Declaring the frontrunner the winner this early in the series would not make for a really good show and, in this case, would not further corporate wishes.