Romney's leading margins compared to Obama's...

[Drunken Irishman]

That goes all the way back to February, 2011. It shows you the margins each candidate has led on the average. Obama is blue, Romney is red.

You're seeing that right. Romney hasn't led in the average since October and only has led for a sliver of time in a year and a half stretch. He's never led in their average this year.

To put that into perspective, look at how many times Kerry led Bush from early 2004 to August 8th, 2004:



That's what a competitive race looks like. Bush and Kerry flipped for the entire first eight months of the election. It wasn't until late-August when Bush overtook him for good.

While the polls are close, Romney hasn't shown any ability to consistently lead Obama in the polls. Every time it looks like he might surge ahead of him, Obama regroups and builds a lead. That leaves a bunch of peaks and valleys, but it never leaves Obama underwater. Romney has been underwater since OCTOBER.

The last candidate who went that long without leading his opponent? Bob Dole in 1996.

Even McCain briefly held the lead over Obama in January and again in March (and again in September).

[longship]

1. Don't forget. Obama didn't even begin campaigning until Spring.

So these early Mitt leads were basically with a cardboard opponent. Even then, he could barely eke out a lead.

I think Obama ought to try out a cardboard cutout against Rmoney in the first debate, because Rmoney's so bad, Obama's cardboard cutout might very well win. However, I can just hear the spin room now.

This is Leslie Blitzer from the spin room: Expectations were low for candidate Romney on this first ever debate against the cardboard visage of an incumbent President. The fact that Mitt Romney was still standing at the end of the ninety minutes, we judge this as a clear win for the Republican candidate.

President Obama aide, Axelrod, has been quoted that during the second debate Governor Romney will have to tackle a cardboard cutout of the President holding a baby. We here at CNN will be covering that debate live. No doubt, sparks will fly again.