Hillary's SC lead has plummeted from Clinton 78: Sanders 8 on July 30

[magical thyme]

to 48-23 last month on Huffpost; 49-24 in most recent NBC/ORC poll.



Among those who say they are likely to vote in South Carolina's primary, set for one week after Nevada's caucuses, Clinton holds a larger edge, 49% to Sanders' 24%, with Biden at 18% and former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley at 3%.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/12/politics/poll-south-carolina-nevada-hillary-clinton/index.html

Her +16 lead showing up in the CNN/ORC Nevada poll is slightly below her current national lead of +19 (which is down from +35 or so back on July 30).

[JaneyVee]

1. Now add 20 of Biden's points into HRC's column.

Doesn't seem like he's running.

[Fearless]

14. So which is it??

In one breath you say Biden running takes votes from Bernie and in the next you say him not running gives votes to Hillary. Can't be both ways. Which one is it?

[JaneyVee]

19. I said that?

I don't remember saying that but if I did I guess I was wrong because polling now shows his support goes to Hillary.

[George II]

94. I'd be pretty embarrassed if my poll numbers were equal to and lower.....

.....than someone who isn't even a declared candidate.

That says a lot.

[mak3cats]

2. Amazing how the use of language can imply something completely different...

"Clinton opens wide leads..." She's had wide leads, and they're shrinking almost daily. But if one only reads headlines...

[stillwaiting]

103. Manipulators use manipulative headlines. Especially when they want to paint a picture that HIDES

another reality.

Once exposed, they deserve to be highly scrutinized, if not ignored, on anything they have to contribute.

They are exceedingly biased and objective driven, and they are TRYING to manipulate others. It's the purpose for the words they choose to use almost every time.

[BooScout]

3. South Carolina, Nevada CNN Polls Find Clinton Far Ahead....

....so says the headline in your link.

[artislife]

6. Gosh if only it were Super Tueday, today

But it isn't.

We still have lots of time.

[BooScout]

8. At this rate....

BS may catch up by 2020.

[artislife]

9. I think once he has the national stage

where his quotes must be printed in small rags as well as large, he will jump. She is a terrible debater. People will remember why she is not so likable, I can't wait.



Makes me happy!

[BooScout]

11. Lol....

I don't know where you got the idea Hillary is a terrible debater from......she in fact is an excellent debater. Watch tomorrow night and be amazed!

[Fearless]

15. Bwahahaha!

How about every debate performance she's ever had!

[BooScout]

26. ...

[frylock]

87. Hillary stalling for time after every question with her nervous little laugh..

isn't grating at all.

[Scootaloo]

27. If that's what you gotta believe...

Reminds me of those people ho thought Palin won the VP debate in 2008. she obviously didn't even come close, and couldn't have out-debated a potato, but hey, partisan goggles and all.

O'malley's gonna get the most out of tomorrow's debate, and Clinton's gonna take a sizable drop.

[BooScout]

28. I think O'Malley will do well too...

I think Clinton and O'Malley will both come across as reasonable Democrats. Hillary will also be able to demonstrate her knowledge and depth on the issues.

Mostly I think Sanders is going to come across as an angry man with no way to prove how he can achieve a single thing he promises, much less be able to pay for anything. Sanders will start sinking after tomorrow night.

[Scootaloo]

31. Well, that's because you have nothing but irrational hatred for Sanders.

Of course, we all know WHY Clinton supporters hate Sanders, only Sanders, exclusively Sanders, all day, every day, with every waking breath.

[BooScout]

32. Au contraire....

I don't 'hate' Sanders at all. I just think he is not up to the job of President of the United States. I think Clinton is the best candidate running and I currently have O'Malley in the position of my second choice.

'Hate' is a powerful word.....not one I ever use lightly.

[artislife]

40. Clinton is great

If you want endless war that leads to death of children.

And if this is very cool for you
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_veteran_suicide

In 2013, the United States Department of Veterans Affairs released a study that covered suicides from 1999 to 2010, which showed that roughly 22 veterans were committing suicide per day, or one every 65 minutes.[4] Some sources suggest that this rate may be undercounting suicides.[5] A recent analysis found a suicide rate among veterans of about 30 per 100,000 population per year, compared with the civilian rate of 14 per 100,000.[5][6] However, the comparison was not adjusted for age and sex.

The total number of suicides differs by age group; 31% of these suicides were by veterans 49 and younger while 69% were by veterans aged 50 and older.[7] As with suicides in general, suicide of veterans is primarily male, with about 97 percent of the suicides being male in the states that reported gender.[6]

The cycling back to war zones again and again has done nothing to improve those number

These deaths are not on Bernie's hands.

[BooScout]

46. I guess he didn't vote for all those funds

...to support all these wars then?

[artislife]

52. He voted to protect them once she sent them in

She has signed their death certificates.

But that seems to make you very cheery.

[BooScout]

56. Nahhhh

I just find it amusing trying to blame the Iraq War on Clinton when most of the world blames it on Bush.

[artislife]

59. Every evil world leader has their minions who help them. nt

[BooScout]

61. Is a minion anything like a fan?

[artislife]

63. Think more like enabler.

As enable a war president to send wave after wave of humans to their deaths. And to do it for her career. Well, isn't she adorable?

[BooScout]

69. So by that definition....

60+ % of the American public are enablers then since that was the precentage that supported invasion. Many basing their opinions on the idea that the wmd claims of the Bush administration were accurate.

I don't consider them or Hillary an enabler. What I do consider the argument to be is a deflection.

[artislife]

71. Deflection! Thanks for the laugh

You are adorable, too

[BooScout]

75. Yes.....

I'm a very cuddly person!

[We Want Bernie]

51. Okay.. she is the master debater..

That's fine.

[George II]

37. Once he has the national stage? He was on for 10-15 minutes on MSNBC, all over NBC (MTP)....

....yesterday, on CNN over the weekend, etc. He's been on just about every network now in the last week or two, as well as all over the newspapers and major political websites.

What else comprises "the national stage"?

[artislife]

39. You are so like Mitt Romney supporters, believing in your polls

The out dated, crickety structures.

Go ahead with your bad selves. It looks like everyone is entertained!

[George II]

45. Virtually all the polls have roughly the same result, within points of each other except for...

....a few outliers.

Romney depended upon those outliers to give himself a warm feeling.

Oh, if only people knew what the results of the Clinton internal polls were indicating they would be shocked, and not in a good way.

[artislife]

49. Don't believe it!

Polling is based on past behaviors...people are waking up! The numb have wiped the sleep from their eyes.

I don't know how you cannot see city after city after city filled with crowds willing to stand in line for hours just to hear a politician. It is right in front of you all. We are talking about events that are not set up months in advance like concerts with wall to wall radio ads....no the wall to wall is Facebook, twitter, instagram....and more. It is like staying in NO when the waters was fast approaching the breach of the levees and still not seeing what was about to go down.

Fine. Okay. But don't expect Fema to come to your aid.

[BooScout]

48. I know I've been entertained....

This thread is hysterical!

[oasis]

54. Damn straight, the crickety, the cricketier, the cricketiest.

To paraphrase former Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld "You go to war with the crickets you have".

[artislife]

58. What does that even mean?

I have no clue what you are trying to convey.

[oasis]

62. Just having fun with "crickety"

Lighten up, don't be so serious, this is a thread about a poll. And you did mention entertainment.

Can I come out now?

[artislife]

65. Yes

I just didn't get it.


Sorry, I find this election to be serious business.

[BooScout]

60. Crickets are good luck....

....and don't confuse them with the support of Cricket....which imho is more boring than watching paint dry.

[oasis]

68. I got "cricketed" for that post.

if you look upthread. But we're all good now.

[BooScout]

70. As long as we don't have to watch cricket...

Then I'm happy. I am not a 'fan'.

[artislife]

72. I thought we were cool...

?

[oasis]

74. We are.

That's why I wrote BooScout "But we're all good now". That meant you and I.

My reply to her was in response to her post where she says she doesn't like the game of "crickets".
Since that is a game where a bat is used, I posted the spank smilie as a pun on the word "crickets".

Yes we're good. Thanks for asking and I hope there's no hard feelings over the misunderstanding.

[artislife]

77. No hard feelings!

Now I can laugh at the emoji!

[oasis]

79. Understanding is truly wonderful.

[BooScout]

76. Everyone is cool!

[oasis]

80. A much needed break from the tension.

[INdemo]

81. Bernie will speak directly to

The audience as always.As for Hillary without a script and teleprompter she is lost. Do the residents of Nevada have an accent? If so Hillary will have to practice her delivery using the local accent as she did with that "southern draw" when she was in SC

[frylock]

88. I think they all talk like Yosemite Sam in NV

[INdemo]

98. LOL

That was Funny.......

[George II]

95. Clinton lived in Arkansas for roughly 20 years and has lived with a southern husband...

.....for 40 years (as of yesterday - HAPPY ANNIVERSARY!)

One tends to pick up a drawl when exposed to it for that many years.

[INdemo]

97. Yes but that SC accent was phony

An obvious phony Southern Accent

[BooScout]

99. I don't think it is....

Living abroad for a decade, I have lost much of my Southern drawl....but I can hardly clear the Atlanta airport when I fly home before I can hear myself elongating my vowels and slowing my speech patterns. My southern accent seems to come out as soon as my ear tunes in to it. My husband says he notices it when I talk to friends or family from Atlanta on the phone. I don't speak with a British accent but more of a non-accent now. I think the only reason I'm probably conscious of it is that I remember how people used to ridicule Linda McCartney of having a 'fake' British accent. It took me living abroad to realize it wasn't fake, it was just part of absorbing what you hear every day. You often don't realize you're speaking that way.

[tex-wyo-dem]

47. Actually, if you extrapolate the data...

Sanders intersects Clinton sometime in Nov/Dec (granted, few data points)

[BooScout]

50. Actually.... Sanders is trending down and Hillary is trending up...

So if we extrapolate with those existing trends.....Sanders falls off the graph paper.

[INdemo]

82. Yes I know David Axlerod said that

Bernie was trending down 2 months ago and like a prom date When the prom is over everyone goes home and that's it
Guess that was before the Sanders campaign drew in 26 mill

[George II]

96. He'll probably fall off the graph paper on March 2, 2016.

[BooScout]

100. It's definitely trending that way

[hrmjustin]

4. According to cnn Hillary has a 70 percent lead if Biden leaves the race in SC.

[Fearless]

16. And according to you she's already won

And according to me she's already lost.

"People say" isn't an argument, it's a justifier for whatever point of view you want to come across as unbiased yet which you support wholeheartedly. It's a Fox News tactic.

[hrmjustin]

17. Oh ok.

[INdemo]

83. Biden is not in the race

[BooScout]

101. I agree....he's not...but he's in the polls....

..and will continue to be in the polls until the MSM gives up the ploy of trying to make the Democratic primaries a horse race when they aren't.

[left-of-center2012]

5. "Now add 20 of Biden's points into HRC's column"

If you can predict the future,
I need the winning numbers for the upcoming Powerball drawing.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

84. Me too! Count me in!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[stonecutter357]

7. I am voting for Hillary Rodham Clinton....

[Robbins]

10. here is the thing

these are actully good for bernie and his supporters.

nevada-bernie is at 34% with Biden in.that is great news.he is at 36% if biden doesn't run

Let's rmember obama actully lost nevada overall to clinton but ended up with more delegates.

of course there were accusations of Clinton people trying to keep Obama voters from being able to vote.

SC-something is fishy here.why does bernie have 24% if biden is in but 20% if he doesn't

Right now Nevada is looking like it's the next state bernie could do well in if he wins both Iowa and NH.

The thing is now is doing well in debates and winning iowa and NH.

[Thinkingabout]

12. We are looking for a nominee who gets the majority of the delegates, 23.0% does not result in

getting the majority of the delegates, maybe it is the new math I don't understand.

[Bluenorthwest]

13. South Carolina is where many campaigns lose their souls. In 08, that's where Bill Clinton said some

of the things that made Obama supporters furious and where Obama held rallies with 'ex gay' hate preachers to pander to the conservative religious vote. It was all so appalling to watch.

[workinclasszero]

18. South Carolina, Nevada CNN polls find Clinton far ahead

South Carolina, Nevada CNN polls find Clinton far ahead

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Updated 9:16 AM ET, Mon October 12, 2015

This is the headline from the link you provided, why did you alter/hide it????

[magical thyme]

20. Because they left out the part about how Clinton's lead is dropping

and this isnt Late Breaking News.

And that's just second of the two links I provided.

But I think you already knew that.

[workinclasszero]

21. See here is the point when you know your campaign is finished

You start changing or hiding headlines to suit your fantasy and you start unskewing scientific polls and play up clickbait internet polls.

Bernie fans need to wake up and smell the coffee. Its over. Reality wins every time, like it or not.

I just hope you all join us in defeating the teahaddists in the GE.

[magical thyme]

23. Bernie is ahead of where Obama was at this point. And the campaign has only just begun.

"Unskewing scientific polls"

Sorry, but trends say far more than individual poll results. I first learned that back when I completed pre-medical statistics with roughly a 100% average. And I'm reminded of it every time I review daily calibration and qc results for 50 or so reagents on our chemistry analyzer.

I started out not wanting a political dynasty. Then, the closer I looked, the more I saw somebody who represents the interests of the MIC and Wall Street, not to mention, herself. Now, her supporters do everything they can to drive me further and further away. If you want my vote for Hillary, you'll have to find a better way of attracting me. Here's a hint: insulting my intelligence is not the way to do that.

[workinclasszero]

35. Trends?

Sorry, but trends say far more than individual poll results.

Heres the thing with trends. They cut off on March 1, 2016.

Super Tuesday.

You Bernie fans act like you have all the time in the world but the game is over March 1 2016.

Tuesday, March 1
(Super Tuesday)

Alabama
Arkansas
Colorado caucuses
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota caucuses
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia

How many of these states do you expect Bernie to win in about 4 months?

[frylock]

89. You seem to know nothing about momentum..

Sanders has it. Clinton, not so much.

[workinclasszero]

92. Funny that Bernies

momentum peaked at about 23% eh?

[frylock]

93. He's plateaued!

Again.

[Persondem]

110. Indeed. You are correct.

The only changes are to the dates to show the last 2 months. Graph looks very flat for Sanders (both candidates, actually) and he is currently about half a point below his max average.

The last 10 national polls have Sanders in the mid 20's which means that yes, he is not gaining ground (i.e. plateaued)

[magical thyme]

107. where was Bernie vs Hillary 4 months ago?

Again, he is doing better than Obama was at this point back in '08, higher in the polls, more donors, more money and larger crowds. This, in spite of a near media black-out on him.

Meantime, Hillary's in the same trap that she was in back in '08 as the "inevitable" front runner with a great big target on her back. The GOP is unleashing all their hatred on her, and will continue to right through the primaries, opening a wide path for a "dark horse" candidate to run through unscathed. Fact is, people are sick to death of the Clinton scandals. Enough already. It wouldn't matter if there wasn't a bit of meat to them because just the constant noise is enough for people to scream no more. But the private server was a godsend to the GOP. It has teeth, it is real, it shows very poor judgement in using it and very poor judgement in trying to dismiss it, explain it way and out and out lie about it. And when those emails start coming out tomorrow, they're going to expose some the ugly underbelly of Blumenthal lobbying for his friends and other sordid details of her network of cronies.

Bottom line is Bernie is coming into the debates in excellent shape. Now he'll get his first real introduction to the majority of the electorate, along with O'Malley, Webb and Chafee. Hillary will be coming out under a cloud.

[uponit7771]

102. Biden is not running

[sabrina 1]

24. If Hillary's supporters contintue to disrespect voters as they did in 2008 by referring to them

dismissively as 'fans', yes, I remember, Bernie will have no problem winning this election.

What it shows is how little her campaign thinks of the American people and how seriously they take the ISSUES that have so adversely affected their lives, many of which she supported.

Add to that the attacks on these voters, and if you think it isn't being noticed by people across the country, all I can say is 'keep doing it' because the issues ARE that serious and I want the person who KNOWS that, to win this election.

[BooScout]

30. The word 'fans' is dismissive now?

Who knew?!

[sabrina 1]

33. Now you know! Unless in your view Policians are some kind of Hollywood invention. But to most

mature voters, politics has zero to do with entertainment and fandom. How on earth could someone be a member of a political site like this and not know that?

[BooScout]

34. I dunno.....

Maybe I was more interested in discussing the issues rather than what we should call voters and supporters.?

[sabrina 1]

36. Maybe you missed that the post in question contained no discussion of the Issues, nor did yours btw,

but instead referred to voters as 'fans'.

The issues most important to people in this campaign include 'Getting the Money out of Politics' because that is what that money buys, Super Pacs, smear campaigns, personal attacks against non-establishment candidates absent discussion of Issues.

So it is a HUGE ISSUE for a majority of the people in this campaign.

Second to that according to voters, are issues like the TPP/Trade agreements that destroy American jobs, the attacks on Social Programs such as Social Security which for the first time was threatened by members of our own party over the past few years.

Wars we should not be involved in is now another very important issue.

Name calling of voters isn't something most people are interested in seeing, since it is an attack on THEM and only proves how important the #1 issue is, the Dirty Corporate Money in politics.

[George II]

41. Can you come up with ONE "personal attacks against non-establishment candidates"....

....that you've seen here?

[BooScout]

43. See....

I'm sure I got distracted by the 'fans' is dismissive insertion into the conversation. And now it's apparently 'calling names' too. ...and btw....your post didn't really address the issues either other than to say you take the issues seriously....I can too. From here on out, I will try not to use the word 'fans' when describing voters or supporters. You take care now. Thanks for the lesson on the 'issues'.

[George II]

38. I'll be a New York Mets "supporter" tonight when they play against the Dodgers!

[BooScout]

44. As long as you're not a fan

[sabrina 1]

64. There you go. Equating a game with issues that concern the American people. I will use this

exchange btw, to demonstrate to potential voters how Hillary supporters feel about the issues. It's a great example of what voters say they are sick and tired of. Thanks.

I love it when people prove my point so clearly!

[BooScout]

66. Oh you're most welcome!

We need to knuckle down on the issue of 'fans' whenever we can!

[workinclasszero]

57. Oh wow

Its just laziness on my part, fan is quicker to type than supporter but take it as you want, just don't blame Hillary for it!

[DCBob]

22. That chart is stale.. it missing some of the recent polling.

Here are all latest SC polls which show things pretty consistent since early Sept.

[sabrina 1]

25. Bernie trending up, Hillary trending down. As people get to know him. Same thing

everywhere. He had practically zero name recognition, and that is still the case with probably half the country, but as that improves, so do his poll numbers.

And that is why DWS is trying to avoid debates.

[BooScout]

55. Actually Bernie is trending down and Hillary is trending up

'Fans' is trending down though.

[William769]

67. Just think of the rabbit hole in "Alice in Wonderland" for what some are reporting in this thread.

It's funny & sad at the same time.

[sabrina 1]

73. 'Some people say'! Here let me identify them. I do agree that those claiming Hillary's numbers

have not gone down are obviously in denial. Eg, she was polling above 60% for nearly year, now down to hovering around 40%. That is called losing support.

[workinclasszero]

78. Indeed. Its a whole new world

around here all of a sudden.

[magical thyme]

29. It's not surprising that things are relatively stable for the last few weeks

What would be surprising is if they remain stable after the first debates.

A whole lot of people will be seeing O'Malley and Chafee for the first time. A fairly large number will be seeing Sanders for the first time. A fairly large number will see Webb for the first time.

I expect there will be a significant amount of shifting in coming weeks. I suspect it will depend on who's message resonates and who is most believable. If people are attracted by Bernie's message, it may actually help O'Malley quite a bit since their messages are well aligned but O'Malley's youth looks safer than Bernie's and Hillary's age.

The very good news for all of us is that everybody will look stellar compared to the GOP circus clowns!

[Hiraeth]

42. doesn't SC typically go Republican?

[onehandle]

86. Typically not in a Democratic Primary.

[Hiraeth]

109. so then typically, the democratic primary amounts to a hill of beans. wouldn't you agree?

[NCTraveler]

53. Amazing her number have gone down this much and she is still the....

unchallenged frontrunner. Really amazing. None of the drop in her numbers are unexpected. Up over 25 points. Impressive.

[frylock]

91. I know! Amazing that a politician in the public spotlight for almost 25 years..

would be the frontrunner. Not unlike the tides, you just can't explain it!

[uponit7771]

104. especially after focused efforts by the GOP to bring them down

[onehandle]

85. BIDEN SURGES!

Until the shoe drops and Hillary gets the lion's share of that support.

[riversedge]

106. I am beginning to hate that word 'surge"!

[riversedge]

90. Do you have a reading comprehension problem??

Just curious.

[uponit7771]

105. they're left with making shit up now

[tblue37]

108. Biden draws from Hillary, so if he doesn't declare, his votes mostly go to her.

I suspect her poll drop is mainly related to the media's loud speculation about a Biden candidacy.

[FloridaBlues]

111. If Biden gets in, Bernie he will be permanent 3rd place

[Gloria]

112. I just heard Kornacki say something about a staggering

77 point lead??? in one of the Carolinas...but I saw 49 on the screen...

Not sure if he was messing with Biden points??