South Carolina: HRC: 70% Bernie 20%--Clinton lead fueled by huge black vote

[WI_DEM]

In South Carolina, a Biden-free race currently stands at 70% Clinton to 20% Sanders with O'Malley holding at 3%

In South Carolina, Clinton's advantages stem largely from Sanders' unpopularity with black voters, who made up a majority of Democratic primary voters in the state in 2008, the last time there was a competitive Democratic primary. Back then, black voters broke 78% for Barack Obama to 19% for Clinton.

Without Biden in the race, it's a near-even split among whites, 48% Clinton to 47% Sanders, while blacks break 84% to Clinton and just 7% would back Sanders.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/12/politics/poll-south-carolina-nevada-hillary-clinton/index.html

With Biden in the race HRC receives 49% 24% favor Bernie and 18% favor Sanders. In the new poll, 59% of black voters say they back Clinton, 27% say Biden and just 4% for Sanders. Among white voters, Sanders has the edge, 44% to 31% for Clinton and 22% for Biden.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/12/politics/poll-south-carolina-nevada-hillary-clinton/index.html

[hrmjustin]

1. That is a huge lead!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. What hrmjustin said.

The demographic details are absolutely mind boggling.

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. Not really ...

Some have been saying this all along.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. 4% is within the margin of error

That suggests his support among that sub group can actually be lower.

[1StrongBlackMan]

12. True. n/t

[CreekDog]

16. welcome back!

good to have you back.

[1StrongBlackMan]

17. Shhh ... Only a few of my friends have noticed! ...

[SCantiGOP]

21. not at all surprising

I've been involved in SC politics for decades. There is not a single black leader who has endorsed Sanders, and the AA community is a majority of the primary vote.
Democrats in SC, white and black, love the Clintons.

[1StrongBlackMan]

27. That is what some have been saying for quite some time. n/t

[ismnotwasm]

3. Wow

Now that is impressive

[leftofcool]

4. SC not feelin' the bern

[workinclasszero]

10. The bern got BURNED in SC!

[MoonRiver]

35. BERNed out some?

[PotatoChip]

7. This is so scary. I hope Biden will jump in the primary race and win it, if Bernie can't.

Bernie is obviously my first choice for many reasons, not the least of which is the fact that he has the best chance of winning the general. As a long time pragmatic Dem, I can't help but think strategically like this. It's just habit...

Nonetheless, Biden might have to work a little harder than Bernie for a general election win, but I think he can pull it off.

God help us if Hillary gets the nomination. I can't bear to even think of a President T___ or President Cr___ let alone write it out in this post. Ugh!

[1StrongBlackMan]

19. Actually ... I think O'Malley has the BEST chance of winning the G/E ...

He has the progressive platform of Bernie and HRC; but, none of the baggage that HRC and Bernie bring.

His problem is a lack of exposure ... and that will be resolved tomorrow evening.

[PotatoChip]

49. His coverage has indeed been abysmal.

So much so, that I am sorry to admit that I hadn't even added him into the mix in terms of his general election chances. Not because he lacks anything as a good candidate. It's just unfortunately a fact that his lack of exposure has been so bad as to forget about him, I'm ashamed to say... This of course, is very unfair. Otoh, I'm betting that his numbers will go up after the debates. The only question for me is how much.

He seems like a pretty decent candidate from what little I know of him. And I agree with you that he'd have a very good shot at winning the general election if he were to make it out of the primary. (Better than Biden, even). Governors have historically done well when anti-establishment sentiment runs high.

Bernie is still my guy, but I would have no problem whatsoever voting for O'Malley if he were to win the primary.

[1StrongBlackMan]

53. I'm guessing that O'Malley's bounce will put him in the teens ...

and, both, HRC's and Bernie's numbers will fall.

I, further, predict that HRC's numbers will fall LESS than Bernie's.

[PotatoChip]

57. I both agree and disagree.

Whatever O'Malley's post debate gains, his numbers are more likely to come from Bernie, and less from Hillary. I agree with you there. Btw, he may also pick up more of the undecideds than Bernie too, but I think Bernie will get a respectable amount of them.

Where I disagree is the level of the post debate bounce. Anything is possible I guess, but I don't anticipate the numbers to jump that high. At least not immediately. Perhaps after a couple more debates, and with more coverage, I think that in time he may shoot up to that, but not right off.

Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that Sanders supporters are, generally speaking, a pretty loyal bunch. Not only that, but when people become vested in a candidate to the extent of volunteering, attending house parties, going to rallies or donating to their campaign, it becomes far less likely that they will change their mind. This would hold true for any candidate, not just Bernie. It's basic human nature to not want to feel as if they've made a bad or 'wrong' choice.

So, just to sum up, I think O'Malley's numbers will improve after the debate, but just not by as much as you say. At least not right off... We shall see I guess.

I have been wrong on occasion, though.

[uponit7771]

61. Americans are more apt to vote for a women than a socialist

[workinclasszero]

8. WOW!!!! 70%!!

Talk about total domination! 70% YES!!!!

GO HILLARY!!!

All Bernie fans talk about tiny NH and Iowa then we come to the south and Bernie's numbers jump off a cliff!!!

[Fearless]

9. Which is down and falling from her high point.

As predicted, as people know Bernie better, especially people of color, look at BLM currently even, they return to his policies because they better serve those communities and all of America.

[72DejaVu]

13. It's true

Her numbers are not as good as they were when she was unopposed.

[Walk away]

79. Hey, you never know...

she could go back up to her original %100 after the debates!

[1StrongBlackMan]

20. Did you look at the numbers among Black voters? n/t

[Fearless]

40. Yes actually

And Hillary is trending down in comparison to Bernie

[William769]

44. Actually

Can you show where yo see that?

[1StrongBlackMan]

51. Okay. n/t

[DCBob]

42. Steady since early Sept.

[thesquanderer]

11. Is Sanders genuinely unpopular among black voters in SC?

Or could it be that he is not yet very well known among black voters in SC? Can't really tell from the numbers alone.

Either way, the primary is still over four months away. Either way, BS clearly has his work cut out for him, if he wants to make an even respectable showing.

If he wins Iowa and NH (a big IF, I know), I suspect all the press he would get would lhelp him get notably more than 20% in SC. I don't expect he has much chance of a victory, but I'd be impressed if he reduced the spread with HRC from its current 50 points to even get within 20. And this is a case where winning is not all that matters, because SC awards its delegates proportionately.

[72DejaVu]

14. I don't assume

That black voters are less informed than white voters, in SC or anywhere else.

[1StrongBlackMan]

22. Thank you. n/t

[pnwmom]

28. Welcome to DU, 72DejaVu!

Though I hope your screen name doesn't predict our future!

[thesquanderer]

47. I'm not assuming that they are either.

I'm just likewise not assuming that they aren't (on this particular topic). While of course individual behaviors don't simply conform to any generalization, there is plenty of indication that, on the whole, the AA community does, to some extent, watch different TV shows, for example. (Which means they may tend to see a different mix of advertising, including campaign commercials.) My point is, just by virtue of tending to be exposed to more of some media and less of some other, it is not inconceivable that they could (on the whole) be less informed on some issues, and likewise, that whites, as a whole, could be less informed on some issues than are blacks (which in a sense, is some of what BLM is trying to address, for that matter... a kind of white ignorance).

Somewhat related to this, Bernie has so far spent no money in SC. HRC has spent a lot. Especially depending on where/how the money was spent, it is not inconceivable that could be tilting the AA vote further in her favor, in a way that may not be representative of how things will play out when BS starts spending there as well.

Anyway, it's very possible that the Sanders awareness among each group in SC is indeed about even. But it's not impossible that it's not, so it could be a factor in these number. Or not.

[1StrongBlackMan]

55. I disagree with a lot of what you have written ...

While it is true that Black folks have different viewing patterns, Black folks (largely) know of Bernie ... especially, after BLM.

Bernie HAS spend time and money in South Carolina ... remember the Cornel West Introduction tour?

[thesquanderer]

58. And you absolutely may be correct.

But BS did have to overcome a deficit in name recognition, I'm just allowing for the possibility that he isn't quite there yet.

Gallup poll released August 10 shows 92% of black Americans were familiar with HRC, and only 33% were familiar with BS (see first link below). About the same time, on July 24, they showed that, overall, HRC was known by 89% of the Americans and BS was known by 44%. So, at least at that time, as a whole, black people were somewhat less familiar with him (33%) than non-black people were (since, the earlier 44% figure was for black and non-black people combined).

Obviously, things have changed since the summer, but there was a discrepancy here, and without more recent polling (which I haven't seen, but might be out there), you can't be sure the discrepency in awareness has actually been eliminated.

As for the other, I said "Bernie has so far spent no money in SC" -- well, okay, he has been there, so he has at least spent for transportation, food, and lodging. But I remember reading that HRC has already had substantial media buys there, and BS hadn't done any yet, that's what I was talking about. (Sorry, no link handy on that one.) But I agree that the Cornel West events would certainly have helped raise his profile there, it's not all about media buys.

BTW, although we don't always agree, I'm glad you're here, 1SBM.

poll links:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/184547/clinton-favorability-strong-among-black-americans.aspx?utm_source=Politics&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=tiles

http://www.gallup.com/poll/184346/sanders-surges-clinton-sags-favorability.aspx

[1StrongBlackMan]

59. I have no doubt there is a recognition deficit with Bernie ...

but as I've said before ... I doubt Bernie cracks 20% among Black folks ... ever; because his economic primacy message does not resonate with Black folk ... not because Black folks don't care about economic justice ... but because Black folks know that racism trumps dollars.

[Number23]

65. Three black posters just responded to that poster with three different issues that may explain

Sanders' really dismal support in minority communities.

His "economics trumps all" message, his attacks on President Obama and his decision to campaign with Cornell West.

But how much do you want to bet that any second now, someone will come in and blast Sanders' almost negligent AA support as "well no matter when everyone keeps calling him a RACSIST!!1one1" or that it's because he doesn't have name recognition??

[Number23]

60. I appreciate your thoughtful responses in this thread. And I think that you're right

Bernie did have a massive deficit in name recognition within AA communities.

And unfortunately he decided that one way to mitigate that deficit was to go a'courtin' and a'campaignin' with Cornell West. The results of that gigantic misstep are now painfully evident.

[thesquanderer]

72. Thanks, #23. (n/t)

[uponit7771]

63. One way NOT to make up that gap is to unfairly attack Americas first black president... unfairly...

... is the keyword.

Once people of all stripes

[thesquanderer]

70. I don't understand your post.

Maybe you hit "post" before finishing your editing?

As it is, it reads:

"One way NOT to make up that gap is to unfairly attack Americas first black president... unfairly...

... is the keyword.

Once people of all stripes"

Once people of all stripes what?

Also, I haven't seen all his interviews and such, not by a long shot, but from what I've seen, he has been respectful to Obama (and Hillary) even when differentiating himself from them. What unfair attack on Obama are you referring to?

[uponit7771]

74. Once people of all stripes see someone unfairly criticized then they start looking at the person doi

... doing the critique.

We'll see, it's still early and if Sanders gets the nod I'll be pushing for him.

[FlatBaroque]

23. Good work!

That line stood out. CNN- The most busted name in news

[DCBob]

39. I think they are simply happy with Hillary.

Bernie is an unknown old white jewish guy from a small northern state. That doesn't garner much attention in the deep south.

[onpatrol98]

46. Maybe some SC voters are reading DU?

Maybe some SC voters are reading DU? Or, perhaps they're following the discussions on Twitter. I don't know anyone in South Carolina. But, EVERY time I speak with a friend in another state (Illinois, Oklahoma, Missouri, Indiana...I mention my DU experience. Usually we're laughing...but, inevitably...you feel like crying.

But, if I can actually convince a friend to check out the DU discussion...typically fury comes next. Right now, they're Hillary voters. Most don't think he could win in a general. The socialist tag is a problem for a couple. The price tag of his agenda is a problem for one. But, when it comes down to winning the general election. There's little doubt, Hillary seems the best choice to beat a republican challenger, no matter who the challenger will be.

But, the candidate I really want to hear from tomorrow night is Martin O'Malley. After Baltimore, he'll have some explaining. But, I think if he can do well, he may really shake up the race.

[thesquanderer]

48. "Hillary seems the best choice to beat a republican challenger"?

I think this is another instance where name recognition and overall awareness could conceivably be playing a part. Personally, while I think BS is unlikely to win the nomination, I think that, if he does, he would be at least as strong as HRC in the general, for reasons I list in post #5 at http://www.democraticunderground.com/128060876

[onpatrol98]

66. It could be name recognition...

It could definitely be name recognition and overall awareness. She may have a dinged up brand. But, she has a known brand. I think she has a better chance to win in a general election. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. I'm often wrong. But, in my tiny circle of friends. I'm not alone in that thinking. I'm looking forward to the debate, though.

[uponit7771]

62. Sanders has been in politics for 30yrs, he shouldn't be so unknown among swaths of Americans

... voters

Also, blacks are not uninformed ... just when the first black president is unfairly attacked they don't become Bern victims (tm)

[thesquanderer]

67. Honestly, I think that's ridicuolous.

You certainly don't expect national name recognition from being the mayor of Burlington VT. But let's even pick it up from 1991, when he first held national office. There are dozens of people who have been in Congress longer than BS. How many names do you think most Americans are truly familiar with, enough to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion? Heck, how many can name their own sitting congressperson? Very few members of the House get widely known, or known at all outside their own district. The Senate is a little better in that respect, but even then, dozens of Senators have been in the Senate longer than BS, and I bet most people wouldn't even recognize most of the names, much less have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of them. Unless someone goes out of their way to get on TV and so forth (and there are some of those), most just go about doing their work, while most Americans aren't particularly involved, a combination which is naturally going to lead to little name recognition for most of them.

[uponit7771]

68. Black folk being informed and engaged is not ridiculous and Sanders has been senator for how long?

[thesquanderer]

69. Sanders has been Senator since 2007.

And of course Black folk being informed and engaged is not ridiculous. But I'm not talking black or white here. When I said it was ridiculous to take Sanders to task for being "so unknown among swaths of Americans voters" after all these years in office, I was talking about *all* the voters, not just black ones.

Other Senators that have served as long or longer:

Amy Klobuchar
Barbara Boxer
Barbara Mikulski
Ben Cardin
Bill Nelson
Bob Casey, Jr.
Bob Corker
Bob Menendez
Chuck Grassley
Chuck Schumer
Claire McCaskill
David Vitter
Debbie Stabenow
Dianne Feinstein
Dick Durbin
Harry Reid
Jack Reed
Jeff Sessions
Jim Inhofe
John Cornyn
John McCain
John Thune
Johnny Isakson
Jon Tester
Lamar Alexander
Lindsey Graham
Lisa Murkowski
Maria Cantwell
Mike Crapo
Mike Enzi
Mitch McConnell
Orrin Hatch
Pat Roberts
Patrick Leahy
Patty Murray
Richard Burr
Richard Shelby
Ron Wyden
Sheldon Whitehouse
Sherrod Brown
Susan Collins
Thad Cochran
Tom Carper

How many do you think the average voter in America, from name alone, trigger a favorable or unfavorable response?

[uponit7771]

75. He was in the house before that, he's had enough time to put up his profile in communities of color

... knowing he was going to make a run nearly a year ago.

He still has some time though I'm surprised his SC numbers are so low

[NonMetro]

15. One Or Two States Don't Make A Trend

And of course HRC may be more popular in the South. I think it's great news for her campaign that she has such strong support, especially among Black Democrats. But, I think Bernie will pick up support as we go along here, and from Black voters, too!

After all, how well known is Bernie Sanders in the South?

[72DejaVu]

25. Unless Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire, right?

Then 2 states mean everything.

[NonMetro]

31. Well, That Wasn't Snarky At all!

Welcome!

[Cosmocat]

77. Snarky and true

not mutually exclusive ...

[DCBob]

18. Bernie still fails to connect with African American voters.

and I dont think he ever will.

[LovingA2andMI]

24. Wow~ It appears South Carolinians have SHORT Memories....

It is the South and All so frankly, that's not a surprise. At least all of us don't have short memories and Bernie Sanders must start bring this pitiful moments in time right-on-up from 2008.....

In the most intense and personal exchange of the presidential campaign, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama assailed each other’s integrity and voting records during a televised debate on Monday in South Carolina, the site of a critical primary in five days.

If the debate was full of memorable moments — Mrs. Clinton accusing Mr. Obama of associating with a “slum landlord,” Mr. Obama saying he felt as if he were running against both Hillary and Bill Clinton, the two candidates talking over each other — the totality of the attacks also laid bare the ill will and competitive ferocity that has been simmering between them for weeks.

“You know, Senator Obama, it is very difficult having a straight-up debate with you, because you never take responsibility for any vote, and that has been a pattern,” Mrs. Clinton said, drawing a chorus of jeers from a crowd at the Palace Theater in Myrtle Beach, S.C.

Mr. Obama shot back that Mrs. Clinton was conducting a brand of negative politics that, he suggested throughout the night, she and her husband had perfected: “He Bomb my 4,000 votes in Illinois, choose one, try to present it in the worst possible light.” He added that he had sought to maintain “a certain credibility” in the race.

Both candidates believe the Democratic nomination could be sealed in the next six weeks, and they used this debate, the second-to-last one of the primary season, to unload their best opposition research and sound bites against each other. In some cases, it was the first time the candidates had personally confronted each other on potentially embarrassing points.

As she has never done before, Mrs. Clinton linked Mr. Obama to a longtime fund-raiser, whom she characterized as a slumlord in “inner-city Chicago.”

Mrs. Clinton was referring to Mr. Obama’s ties to Antoin Rezko, a Chicago businessman who was indicted last fall on federal charges of business fraud and influence peddling connected to the administration of Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich of Illinois. Mr. Obama did work for a law firm in Chicago and performed legal work involving Mr. Rezko’s housing developments. On Saturday, Mr. Obama returned more than $40,000 in political contributions that were linked to Mr. Rezko.

And Mr. Obama, who appeared on the verge of losing his temper at times, noted that she was on the board of Wal-Mart while he was working on “the streets” as a Chicago community organizer. Mrs. Clinton was a director of Wal-Mart from 1986 to 1992.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/us/politics/22dems.html

(CNN) -- Former President Bill Clinton defended his role in his wife's presidential campaign in South Carolina, disputing claims he made race a campaign issue.

"What happened there is a total myth and a mugging," Clinton told CNN's Sean Callebs in New Orleans, Louisiana, over the weekend.

"It's been pretty well established. Charlie Rangel ... the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said in unequivocal terms in South Carolina that no one in our campaign played any race card, that we had some played against us, but we didn't play any."

Bill Clinton was front-and-center of Hillary Clinton's campaign in South Carolina, where he delivered full-throttle verbal attacks on rival Barack Obama.

The former president accused Obama of overstating his opposition to the Iraq war, complained about Obama's union supporters[/ in the Nevada caucuses and blasted his remarks on former President Reagan in a newspaper interview. Video Watch Bill Clinton talk about his role on the campaign trail.

Bill Clinton also set off a firestorm of criticism for comments he made that were considered by some to be racially insensitive -- like reminding people that Jesse Jackson won the state's primaries in his unsuccessful runs for the nomination in the 1980s. The remark was widely seen as a suggestion that Obama's success in the state was largely based on his race.

Dick Harpootlian, a former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party and a supporter of Obama, said some of Clinton's remarks were appeals based on race and gender.

He said the comments were meant to "suppress the vote, demoralize voters and distort the record," and said they were "reminiscent of Lee Atwater." Atwater was a hard-hitting Republican strategist who worked for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush and whose tactics were reviled by many Democrats.

Bill Clinton adamantly denied he was playing racial politics. Hillary Clinton later offered regrets for her husband's remarks, saying, "If anyone was offended by anything that was said, whether it was meant or not, whether it was misinterpreted or not, then obviously I regret that."

Obama ended up winning South Carolina with a large majority of African-American voters, while most whites voted for Clinton or former Sen. John Edwards. South Carolina's Democratic primary was January 26.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/17/clinton.bill/index.html

Whether he was publicly comparing Barack Obama’s primary victory in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson’s campaigns in the eighties or privately, and apoplectically, complaining that Bill Richardson broke his word by endorsing Obama, every story has seemed to reinforce an image of Clinton as a sort of ill-tempered coot driven a little mad by Obama’s success. “I think this campaign has enraged him,” the adviser told me. “He doesn’t like Obama.”

In private conversations, he has been dismissive of his wife’s rival. James Clyburn, an African-American congressman from South Carolina, told me that Clinton called him in the middle of the night after Obama won that state’s primary and raged at him for fifty minutes. “It’s pretty widespread now that African-Americans have lost a whole lot of respect for Bill Clinton,” Clyburn said.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/05/05/bill-vs-barack

And Then There's This..... How Soon We Forget....

It appears the People of South Carolina, need to indeed have LONGER MEMORIES, indeed. #SMH

[Historic NY]

29. Yeah thats what they need rage, you seem to forget one fact Obama picked Hillary as SOS & Biden VP

why because she offer more in line with him. Rehashing 2008 isn't going to help the opposition because people got over it. Some people can bury the hatchet .

[LovingA2andMI]

30. No, No, No....

Even Stevie Wonder can see what Hillary accepted the Secretary of State position and why President Obama offered it to her. Also, there is that Joe Biden factor --- on in other words -- the Checkmate Card that has yet to be played.

Not everyone's memory is so short and its a matter of time before South Carolina 2008 is brought back to the forefront. Which will be quite good for some folks memories.

[ish of the hammer]

33. People need longer memories

than that. Bill Clinton's administration "reformed" welfare and signed the 3 strikes crime bill.
My personal favorite, however, was his administration's disparate treatment of the Bosnian and Rwandan genocides.
hard to forgive.

[DCBob]

38. They remember.. and they forgave her. It was politics.. no more no less.

The Clinton name is still very very strong in the south.

[FloridaBlues]

52. Clearly SC not feeling the Bern !!

Good for Hillary. Staying strong and steady.
After the debate her numbers will improve overall.

[LovingA2andMI]

56. Yes, Good for Hillary....

It will be a matter of time before South Carolina 2008 is revisited -- and the picture is not pretty -- at all.

[onecaliberal]

26. Which is a clear demonstration, republicans aren't the only ones who vote against themselves.

[oasis]

36. Maybe, just maybe, some Democrats know better than you who

gives them the best chance of winning the presidency.

[DCBob]

45. Are you saying SC Democratic voters are ignorant??

[uponit7771]

64. Republicans are ignorant and single sourced info, I don't think black people are the same

[kcjohn1]

32. Internal available?

Is there link cross tab data? Curious MOE of black voters and number of voters who know Sanders.

[stonecutter357]

34. K&R!

[William769]

37. Kick & highly recommended!

[Boov]

73. Highly unrecommended.

The sample is too small. 300 Democrats? Come on.

[William769]

78. Speaking of to small...

[ffr]

41. When Democrats vote, Democrats win.

regardless of candidate.

If you know someone who isn't registered, get them registered and get them to participate so we're not straddled with several more years of crazytown Republis running the show.

[kenfrequed]

43. Have they even voted for a democrat since Carter.

It is remarkable to me that Democrats on this website are pleased about the delegates from a state that are choosing a candidate, any candidate, whose electoral votes will not go to any Democrat.

[WI_DEM]

50. While SC may not

be in the cards in terms of electoral votes--the black vote is important and it's not just important that the Democratic nominee wins it--any Dem will win it, but in terms of generating enthusiasm and getting a large voter turnout. Sanders will win the black vote if he is the nominee but he has to make sure that it is enthusiastic enough for him to turn out in high numbers.

[lunamagica]

54. WOW!!! So the Cornel effect was either nil or negative. For all the hoopla

his endorsement generated, with the Sanders supporters saying this would sift the AA support from Clinton to Sanders...well, it didn't happen.

Then again, which endorsement would you rather have, Congressman Lewis, or Cornel West?

[DCBob]

76. I suspect negative.

Dumb to campaign with him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

80. Thank you for the link./nt

[ChiciB1]

81. Wait SIX Months... At That Time It May Be Much More

important than now. Too many people don't know, have NEVER seen him and have had NO exposure to him. I live in Florida and he's JUST NOW catching on BIG TIME!

Any polls posted right now aren't really any gauge of the electorate. You may not agree, but it just makes sense. Hillary has been EXPECTED to be the nominee for years now, so unless you're a real political activist, I doubt we can really say these polls won't change.