If Romney picks Paul Ryan, he was bullied into the decision...

[Drunken Irishman]

Romney is not going to pick Ryan on his own because it's not a safe pick. Everything Romney has done in this campaign has been extremely calculated - right down to deciding he can afford not releasing his tax returns. Romney is a conservative politician (not ideologically, though, I guess that's now true) and will take as few risks as possible.

Ryan might energize the base, but he's also someone who could turn off the middle quite fast. He's also unvetted and untested. That didn't work so well last time.

So, I don't see Romney picking Ryan. He'll go with a safe pick, someone who's boring, won't show him up and won't certainly cause a stir on the campaign trail - a Pawlenty or Portman.

But if he chooses Ryan, it's because he was essentially told to do so or face a huge backlash at the convention or beyond.

My gut says Romney still picks a boring white guy because it best fits his image. But who knows.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

1. He's under growing pressure from the Right to pick Ryan. If he caves they'll own him. nt

[louis-t]

2. The same way McCain was bullied into picking Palin.

[Thrill]

3. If they pick Ryan. Its to get his name out there nationally

for the Next Election. When Obama isn't running

[dsteve01]

4. Great another guy

that can be pressured by his VP to launch a war in the middle east.

[toddwv]

5. I hope he does.

Paul Ryan comes with a HUGE load of baggage for a campaign that is already having a difficult time treading water.

Plus, it has the added benefit of all but destroys his chance of getting anything that resembles a respectable portion of the hispanic vote.

[ancianita]

6. This could just be some party theater...

to show off Romney as his own man. Cough, cough.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Game Changer

Mitt is getting throttles right now, he needs a game changer. The safe pick would be Portman, but I think they'll go Ryan now. It would certainly paint Mitt as a radical, Ryan is way far out to the Right. Ryan would be easy to attack, and actually I think it would be good for the Country to actually examine what Ryan and the Far Right have in mind for the Country, they want to end Medicare as we know it, Privatize Social Security, and radically change the Country. Ryan provides a target rich set of policies and beliefs.

I don't think it matter who he picks anymore, he doesn't have much of a chance in Novemeber.

[Douglas Carpenter]

8. At this point that they have no hope of winning by staying on the same course and playing it safe

He has always "played it safe" . But in a party dominated crazies - they can only tolerate so much of that. It is true that by nominating a figure as controversial as Ryan or anyone else who isf from the hard right ideological wing - it could make matters much worse. But staying the course by playing it safe is a sure fire loser for him. There is some argument strategically speaking in favor of him doing something bold and game changing. Why doesn't he pick Erick Cantor?

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. Ryan is currently leading on Intrade

granted Intrade is only of value at the moment and reflects trends that can change on a dime and at any second...but currently
Intrade is rating Ryan at 29.8%, Portman at 25.9%, Pawlenty at 16.8% Rubio at 9.3%, Thune at 4% -

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Ryan is dropping then. When I posted, he was at 35%.

[Douglas Carpenter]

11. still up from 24 hours ago and is now at 31%

I suspect there is a bit of a roller coaster ride going on - it will probably settle out over the next day or two if it does reflect a genuine trend.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Thing is, like with the Supreme Court ruling, no one really knows...

It's not like an election where you can point to polls that show a definitive trend. It's all speculation at this point and because of that, the betting will be based on who's drawing the most noise at any given point.

The only people who know who it'll be are Romney & his staff (and maybe the guy they select, if they've told him yet).