Two Jan 29 polls suggest Newt is closing in FL. PPP (Mitt +4) Insider Advantage (Mitt +5)

[denem]

Last edited Mon Jan 30, 2012, 08:05 PM - Edit history (1)

Both Polls are dated Sunday Night. PPP showed Newt gaining over their poll the night before (Mitt +9). Insider Advantage had Mitt +8 on Jan 25.

The sample sizes are 346 and 646 . Small? Not by this years miserable standards. Every damn Headline Poll we've seen are based on 300 - 600 sample sizes. For example:

NBC/Marist, The Big Headline Poll
Romney Leads By 15% (40 - 25)
had a sample size of 315!

The Numbers

PPP: Jan 29
Mitt Romney 37 %
Newt Gingrich 33
Ron Paul 13
Rick Santorum 13
(Survey of 346 likely voters)

Insider Advantage: Jan 29.
Mitt Romney 36 %
Newt Gingrich 31
Rick Santorum 12
Ron Paul 12
(Survey of 646 likely voters)

PPP is reliable. Insider Advantage did well in SC, They were the first to report Newt gaining.

NB. I am not saying that Newt is going to WIN Florida. I AM saying there is evidence to suggest that FL won't be a 16% blowout.

Source: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/florida

[gopiscrap]

1. OMG I thought I'd never say this:

GO NEWT!!!

[DCBob]

2. What about this one also on Jan 29?

Jan. 29
We Ask America
Survey of 1188 likely voters

Mitt Romney 44
Newt Gingrich 25
Rick Santorum 10
Ron Paul 10

BTW, Nate gives this one the highest weighting of any of the recent polls.

I think Romney has Florida in the bag. Many forget he also had a ton of votes in the bag with early voting. PPP reported he had about 12 point lead in those early votes which will account for about 1/3 of the total.

[MjolnirTime]

4. It's not about individual polls, Bob. It's about the trend.

Tell me, what trend do you see in the InsiderAdvantage and PPP polling from the past week?

There was a big swing to Romney, but that Pendulum is headed the other way now. Has been for days.
The polls are behind the actual public sentiment.

If Newt timed this right, today and tomorrow are the days he retook the lead according to the trend evidenced by these polls.

[DCBob]

6. You better prepare yourself for a huge let down tomorrow.

Not sure why you are so hung up on Gingrich winning. President Obama is going to win no matter who the GOPer candidate is.

[MjolnirTime]

8. I want Mitt to lose. Period. And it's looking like there is a better chance of that all the time

[DCBob]

10. Why do you want Mitt to lose??

You have never stated your case. For all we know you are a Gingrich supporter.

[MjolnirTime]

16. I have repeatedly said that Gingrich assures us more House and Senate seats

Just look at the polling showing Romney near Obama and Gingrich trailing badly, and tell me I'm wrong.

As far as someone here supporting Repigs,
I have yet to post a single thread, much less multiple threads (5+), spreading the meme of Newt inevitability.
Can you say the same of Romney?

[DCBob]

18. I never read anything like that in your posts..

just snarky shit.

I agree we would probably be better off with Gingrich as the GOP nominee but its not guaranteed. Im torn on whom I would rather face. Romney is known entity, boring, predictable and has plenty of negatives the Obama campaign can exploit. He wont energize their base and will probably turn them off. In fact if Romney is the nominee the teabagger conservatives might revolt and run a third party. That would be best case scenario.. right?

The other factor is that I'm not sure we really want Gingrich to have a national pedestle to spew his vile crap from now until November. That does not do anyone any good. Over time some people will begin to believe it especially if the RW media backs him up... which they will.

I dont care if you want to argue that Gingrich as the nominee gives us our best shot. But at some point we all have to face reality. Romney is going to win Florida tomorrow and will likely get the nomination. I think the only unknown is the possibility of a brokered convention. If that happens all bets are off.

[denem]

12. I won't be down, which ever way it goes.

I am playing the contrarian here. Romney staffers reported to NY Times the aim of the campaign was to crush Newt and kill his campaign. The Media is sticking to the script, and evidence to the contrary is dismissed or ignored.

When the the GOP/MSM agree, I start looking around for the evidence left out or spun out, the more so when the volume reaches a crescendo. That's the way I am. I am not holding a torch for Newt Gingrich. I do appreciate his remarks on Gov. Romney.

[DCBob]

14. That message was not meant for you.

BTW, I agree with you on appreciating his remarks on Romney. It certainluy helps the cause. I just think its fairly obvious Romney is going to win tomorrow even if those new polls are somewhat accurate. Regardless I dont think Gingrich is going anywhere. If anything he might get even more desperate and who knows what he might say then.

[denem]

5. Bob. WAA is a real outlier.

The sample was more or less 595 Jan 28, 595 January 29,
Insider Advantage were 646 on Sunday night, Jan 29.

PPP on January 28 was Mitt +9. , January 29 Mitt +4
Using the same sampling methods, the trend is there.

With so much riding on Florida,
We Ask America might as well be
We Ask The Powers That Be.

PPP are honest,
that's all I know, so we shall see.

[DCBob]

7. According to 538 that poll was 1188 likely voters.

and they gave it 5 bars, the highest rating for any recent poll.

Who knows, it could tightening but I doubt it will make any difference tomorrow. Romney has the momentum and Gingrich is flailing like a maniac.

[MjolnirTime]

9. "flailing"? That's exactly what Romney said.

[DCBob]

15. Its the most accurate term for what the Salamander is doing.

The man is serious nutcase and has no business running for the highest office in the land. And his supporters are even nuttier.

[denem]

13. We shall see.

That's the beauty and the beast of politics.

[MjolnirTime]

11. Remember, they have no actual vote tallies. The early voting number is a poll, too.

[MjolnirTime]

3. hahahahahaha! I told ya! Mitt should have left Newt in the "lead"

Being the front-runner is anathema to Repuke voters.

Also, Romney made a big mistake by having his media toadies trumpeting all the polls that showed him with a big lead all day every day.
It is turning voters against him as they consider the real prospect of him being the nominee.
Nobody likes Mr. Inevitable.

I believe that when they get in that booth, the Repig masses will forget all pragmatism and logic.
They will vote with their rotten guts.
And most of them will probably end up pulling the lever for Newt.

[DCBob]

22. Well, you were wrong in so many ways. You got anything to say about that??

[Robbins]

17. Florida

If PPP has It being closer I am Inclinded to believe them.The problem for romney Is he let the narrative be he was going to blow
Gingrich away In Florida.If he wins by 4 the narrative will be he underperformed.

Remember this race IS really to see who loses to Obama.

[rocktivity]

19. I'll be more than satisifed with a single-digit margin of victory for either candidate

because it will be a great indication that neither can count on beating Obama there!


rocktivity

[denem]

20. ...

[brooklynite]

21. Howard Fineman sees three primary causes...

1. Sarah Palin's endorsement

2. Rick Santorum off the campaign trail to visit his sick daughter

3. The Romney campaign celebrating before the actual victory.