Best rational I've seen yet for the Ryan pick...

[Kber]

snip

So, to review, the key recent development is that Romney is poised to lose a race he should by all rights be winning, and conservatives are poised to blame this loss on his ideological moderation. (He not only gave people health care, he wants credit for it!). Against this backdrop, the rationale for the Ryan pick strikes me as pretty clear: Ryan is the way Romney and his aides escape blame for their now-likely defeat—blame which would have vicious and unrelenting—and pin it in on conservatives instead. With only minor historical revisions, they will be able to tell a story about how Romney was keeping the race close through early August, at which point the party’s conservative darling joined the ticket and sent the poll numbers into steady decline.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/106035/picking-ryan-isnt-bold-its-highly-risk-averse

This actually fits Romney's personality perfectly.

[rfranklin]

1. Youare absolutely right about Romney always setting up plausible denialbility for himself...

That was the famous story about him only agreeing to head Bain after he was assured that there would be no way he would "fail."

[drm604]

3. He won't be able to deny choosing Ryan.

Not unless he wants to say that he wasn't in charge of his own campaign.

[woodsprite]

27. His people are already backing away from that one, saying it was all his choice. n/t

[Gman]

2. Make no mistake. They do not plan on losing

that being said, what you say will be the theme of the wailing and gnashing of teeth after the election, should they lose.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

6. Ezra Klein article has an interesting codicile to the argument

Should Romney win, rather than have an ideologue like Paul Ryan chairing the House Budget or, even worse, the Ways and Means Committee. Romney will have Ryan thoroughly buried in his administration, where he can't cause any trouble on the Hill

[Gman]

15. Interesting take

Ryan is no Dick Cheney. But neither is Romney a complete tool like Bush was. it's hard to say what they would really be like if you follow the general rule of thumb about Republicans that they will lie their asses off and tell you what you want to hear then screw the country for their own benefit.

[unblock]

4. that's the least plausible rationale i've ever heard.

other than a presidential candidate simultaneously running to keep a senate seat, few campaign decisions, if any, are ever made with the consequences of losing in mind. if you're not committed to maximizing your chances of winning, you shouldn't be on a major campaign (i'm excluding third party campaigns, which are usually for purposes other than winning).

ryan will help him raise more money from the base (mostly the have-mores).

it's that simple.

[Cosmocat]

5. Yeah - he loses and Romney is dead politically

either way, so what if he gets to blame in on something or another ...

He was bleeding from multiple wounds, and Ryan was the longshot effort to save him from bleeding out.

It is THAT simple.

Had he had a chance to win, I think Portman would have been the pick to try to get Ohio.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

7. Money isn't going to win this election...

Mittens is toast, and has been for weeks. His signature accomplishment in public life -- Massachusetts Health Care Reform -- is off the table as a campaign issue (and is, in fact, now a political liability for him). All he can run on is Bain Finance, and that is looking less and less savory by the moment. Other than the fact that Mitt Romney isn't a black guy with a foreign-sounding name, there is NOTHING to recommend his candidacy. Teabaggers don't trust his moderate record and Fundies don't like his religion. He can't even win his own base.

If he'd picked Portman or Pawlenty, the Teabagger would scream for the next four years that they lost because the ticket was too moderate (First McCain, then Romney). And as one of the articles said, they'll then put a neanderthal at the head of the ticket in 2016 -- herding independent and moderate voters into the Democratic camp for the next generation. I think the few remaining smart people in what's left of the moderate faction of the GOP are looking ahead. They're trying to find a way to mute the influence of the radical fringe of their own party. And blaming a loss in 2012 (along with the loss of the House of Representatives) on their ideological inflexibility is the best bad option for them.

[unblock]

10. there's absolutely NO WAY rmoney is thinking that way.

it's conceivable that rove may be thinking that way.
it's conceivable that republican party strategists may be thinking that way.

though even there, not at all likely, because even if they thought rmoney were toast they would be spending their money and effort on winning the senate and as much of the house as possible. their efforts in the presidential race would be focused on maintaining enough plausibility to get out the vote for the congressional races.


but you SERIOUSLY think rmoney is already resigned to losing and it thinking, hey, how can i offer myself as a sacrificial lamb to the cause of the republican party in the long run???

no. rmoney does not think he is toast and in fact rmoney isn't quite toast yet, because none of us can clearly enough predict the external events of the next 3 months. there's still time for an (unlikely) game-changer curveball such as a major white house scandal and/or foreign policy/military debacle.

which is to say rmoney may be reduces to hoping for a miracle or three, but there's simply NO WAY he's given up all hope to the point where he's willing to run his entire campaign PLANNING on losing.

presidential candidates, and rmoney in particular, just DO NOT think that way.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

11. I think he is...

Look. There is poison in his tax return, and he knows damned well he'll get slammed on that from now till November 6th. Made worse by the fact that apparently Romney demanded "several" years returns from his potential VP nominees.

Sure, Romney is probably still hoping that there will be some major implosion in the Obama Campaign and then he can release the returns at the last moment. But that's a lot of hoping, particularly given the level of scrutiny that Obama has been under during the last three years. Something "new" about Obama? Not likely.

Health Care Reform (as EVERY other Republican candidate pointed out) is Romney's kryptonite. Obama can campaign on the benefits of health care reform and Willard is pretty much powerless to stop him.

And it's becoming increasingly obvious that his "private sector experience" amounts to buying and then gutting companies and feasting on the carcass.

Finish this sentence:

Vote For Mitt Romney Because ______________________________.

Other than a negative against Obama, there's no clear reason to vote FOR Romney.

[unblock]

13. you're making the mistake of assuming rmoney is remotely rational.

this is a guy who has achieved a level of success absurdly inappropriate to his "contribution".
i mean, he has profitted lavishly from bringing companies to ruin. nice work if you can get it.

this is a man who thinks he can walk on water, who can't listen to a negative word about him, who lies and deflects and has all these defense mechanisms to preserve his super-inflated ego.

i agree he's boxed into a corner and things are starting to look bleak for him. but there's just no way he's accepting that as an inevitable outcome. he's made a career out of profitting while the world around him crumbles, and there's no way he's going to sit back and accept being a losing candidate.

no, he's pinning all his hopes on outspending obama to the finish line. this is a money man, and he has to think that a big enough money advantage can buy him the election. he's betting that ryan will help him raise buckets of money from the super-rich and that money advantage will help him win. it doesn't matter what state the veep pick is from much anymore, it matters how much money they can raise -- money that can be spent in wisconsin AND ohio AND iowa AND colorado AND nevada,....

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

14. I think you may be right...

Word coming out now that Romney's staff was opposed to picking Ryan. Certainly if anyone was "disaster planning" it would be the staff and advisors and not so much the candidate himself. Romney wanted Ryan.

Interesting.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

16. Bush

Jeb is positioning himself as a moderate. I think that their fingerprints could be on this; it's in their interests to destroy the Tea Party mandate & reclaim the party. They're smart, with a certain exception, they know which way the wind is blowing. HW, Jeb & co want social issues & hardline Norquivstism pushed to the edge of the table so that they can ride in come 2016 and reclaim the party.

I dare say HW has been waiting for the chance to complete this task since 1980. There's just been too much pushback; they're rich, 1% right-wingers who want conservative governance, but they're not stupid, they know that change is needed to keep that viable for the next century.

Wouldn't surprise me if Rove and his PAC are all part of the plan.

[demwing]

8. Romney may be hedging

but with Ryan still in the race for his House seat, the wannabe VP DEFINITLEY is hatching his chicks before he counts them.

[cr8tvlde]

9. I see no possible benefit to Ryan when they lose.

...it could be a triple loss for him...VP, his Congressional seat and his Hatchet Budget...which will be defeated because of the media and Democratic focus that should have been on it from the get-go.

All told, for the nation it's a Four-fer ... Republicans, Romney, Ryan and the Randian Raid on our social network. Kaput.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

12. I agree...

I think it's hubris on Ryan's part. He's never had a serious challenger, so he probably thinks his seat is safe.

But Republicans have pollsters. They MUST know that the "light of day" is the last thing the Ryan Budget needs. Once people start finding out what's in it, the polling indicates that they hate it.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

17. I don't like the frame of this article:

"Romney is poised to lose a race he should by all rights be winning...."

They assume that Robme should have won the presidency. I don't see any evidence to support that premise, regardless of the state of the economy. At best, Robme ties Obama in some national polls. He is far behind in the Electoral College count.

These so-called commentators, even when on our side, are so concerned with being "fair," that they get the premise wrong.

[coalition_unwilling]

20. No sitting president has ever won re-election when the unemployment rate

exceeded 8%. Doesn't really matter that Bush screwed the pooch on the economy, by rights the Republican Party should be cruising to an easy victory in November, if history is the guide. (I was scared shitless that Huntsman would be the nominee, failing to see that the Repigs today are so crazy and so craven that Huntsman was never a serious possibility. I can almost guarantee that the race would be a lot closer, were Huntsman the nominee.)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. Do you not think I know this? Doesn't mean that Robme is "poised" to win anything..

In fact, I think Melissa Harris Perry made a great point the other day:

Most people have made up their minds on the economy. They have already formed their opinions on the economy. Indeed, there is a small percentage of Undecideds this time out, she says. That is why Robme is so eager to appeal to his base. He hasn't moved to the Center like most candidates do when we get to the General. Instead, he has gone further to the Right. Now why is that? Because Rachel Maddow and MHP agree that there are so few Undecideds right now, that this game is about getting out the vote. Yes, the economy does matter, but again, people have already made up their minds.

And I reassert my claim that there is a false premise of this article.

[unionthug]

18. under the bus

Romney's ability to throw people under the bus is epic. His employees at Bain, his political colleagues in Massachusetts, the employees of the businesses he buys, and now the repub establishment.
Now wonder he's so likable.

[Yavin4]

19. Romney Picked Ryan Because His Base Was Turning on Him

Ryan is an August selection which means that he's there to rally the base behind Romney. The real story is that Romney is so weak that he can't run to the middle which was the plan all along.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

21. Yes, increasing risk of a catastrophic meltdown if enough of the base decided to stay home or cast

third Party protest votes. There was open revolt brewing after the Saul statement touting Romneycare. Willing to effectively forfeit Florida, that's how bad the outlook was.

[Doctor_J]

22. "Race he should be winning easily"

the New Republican strikes again

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

24. See my response upthread. That's exactly what I said. It's a false premise!

[chasie]

25. maybe so

If Obama can answer Paul Ryan's questions. He's very intelligent and he will make this all very simple to understand. Why would they be planning on who to blame if they lose?

[nichomachus]

26. And what "questions" would those be?

[marybourg]

28. That's "rationalE"