Democrats Name Clinton The Debate Winner In HuffPost/YouGov Poll

[moobu2]

More than half say they want Clinton to be the Democratic nominee.

"Tuesday's Democratic presidential debate on CNN did what debates usually do, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov poll. It allowed the two leading candidates to make a positive impression on an audience of millions.

More critically, however, the debate allowed front-runner Hillary Clinton to boost her standing among a far bigger base of support, making her the clear winner in the eyes of most Democratic voters.

A 55 percent majority of registered Democratic voters who watched the debate said Clinton won. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who saw a surge in online interest and fundraising, was a distant second, with only 22 percent saying he was the best of the night.

Clinton also saw an uptick in the proportion of Democrats who say they want her to be the party's presidential nominee. Before the debate, 44 percent of registered Democrats said they wanted Clinton to be the nominee. After the debate, the figure had risen to 52 percent."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/huffpost-yougov-poll-democratic-debate_56203935e4b06462a13b8449?fl7eqaor

[Thinkingabout]

1. This sounds more reasonable than the internet polls of which one can respond more than one time.

I was thinking Hillary would start gaining and especially when the Benghazi sham is becoming clear. She was able to bring issues important to the American citizens to light and there are more to come.She is strong and it shows.

[Egnever]

2. Job well done by the media

After 24- 48 hours of the media proclaiming Hillary won, the public agrees.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. She won because she won.

She was better prepared, more poised, demonstrated a better over all grasp of the issues, and was stellar in parrying her opponent's attacks.

I would literally bet my , errrr, ear, if you submitted the tape of that debate to ten debate coaches a majority would say she was the clear winner.

[Armstead]

14. Yeah she was slick all right

And Coke is tasty

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. She also was prepared and showed a grasp of all the issues. That's important to me.

If you believe Hillary Clinton is a vacuous person as is evident by you comparing her to a soft drink there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

[Armstead]

21. She's smart as a whip and certainly not vacuous

Just too slick, and says what she thinks people want to hear.

I think she is passionate about wanting to be president.

[MADem]

51. You keep using that "slick" word....which is a word the rabid, angry right wing used to use

in connection with her husband.

If you don't want people making associations, perhaps you should eschew use of the term.

"Just sayin'..."

[Egnever]

18. I might buy this based on this poll if only

More than 14% of those that responded actually watched the debate and 33% hadn't heard a thing about it.

Pretty hard to take it seriously when 86% of those responding to the poll knew little or nothing about the debate or only what they had been told by the media

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabs_HP_Democratic_Debate_20151015.pdf

My personal opinion it was a tie with a slight edge going to bernie simply because for a lot of people he was an unknown candidate.

[JRLeft]

23. Yeah that poll is a joke but from the people who watched they gave her the edge.

[Egnever]

37. Not sure where you see that

is there another breakdown of it I am missing? Or am I overlooking something.

[marlakay]

25. I do yougov surveys and took that one

They asked if you watched debate, how much of it you watched, who you felt did the best, who you wanted to vote for, who you would vote for if you couldnt have your favorite.

I said i watched all of it and thought Bernie did the best.

[JDPriestly]

56. Hillary was "polished" as they say, but Bernie was the leader.

He's the person who can unite this country.

He gets people to cooperate. His manner, his concerns are inclusive. He bolsters and wins people to his point of view very naturally. He respected everyone on the stage. Acknowledged Webb's service, for example, and praised Webb's cooperation on veteran's affairs. Bernie graciously jumped quickly to rescue Hillary from what was an unfair question about the stupid e-mails.

Bernie was the winner, the leader. That's why independents and previously a-politicals are turning out in droves for Bernie.

He is the one person who can bring the people in D.C. to work together. The politicos will all deny this because they hate each other and are jealous of the leadership position.

But Hillary is the guy who can bring this country together and get D.C. working again.

If you poll the usual Democratic voters you may get a skewed response.

When I campaign for Bernie, I notice that so many people say, "This is the first politician that I really want to vote for," or "I'm 30 years old, and I never voted before, but I'm voting for Bernie." If we can just get say 20% of these first time or irregular voters out to the polls, Bernie will win. That's all it will take.

My first Bernie meeting, I, as one who has been active in politics in my community for years, was aghast to realize that I knew only one person there -- and I knew him from work not related at all to politics. The usually Democratic Party regulars were not there.

So the polls are not going to tell the whole story.

I suppose they are taking voter registration data, figuring who has turned out in recent elections (there is a column for that data) and calling those people. That won't reflect the voter base in 2016 if Bernie is the nominee. He is exciting a lot of people who don't normally vote.

So I would be cautious about those poll numbers. This year could easily bring a big surprise.

We are going to have to work to re-register a lot of voters so that they can vote in the primaries. It will happen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Do you mean the on line non-random samples were erroneous?

Do you mean the on line non-random samples were erroneous?

[catnhatnh]

4. Gee-did you read this part?

The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted Oct. 13 and Oct.14 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov's opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.

So the people being polled were self-selected rather than blind calls...

and then:

Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some, but not all, potential survey errors. YouGov's reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample, rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error.

They use a non-standard analysis...

Wasn't that the complaint about all the polls showing Sanders won?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The operative language is italicized

The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted Oct. 13 and Oct.14 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov's opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.

YouGov uses a non traditional random sample because its respondents are drawn from the internet but that is fundamentally different than a online poll with no controls at all.

[TexasTowelie]

5. Please self-delete.

This doesn't fit the DU narrative.

[Cheese Sandwich]

7. An online poll using a sample "selected from YouGov's opt-in online panel"

Sounds legit

[Esoda]

10. The part you left out

Which distinguishes the Scientific polls from unscientific ones:

"The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, voter registration , and non-placement on an ideology scale. The weights range from 0.123 to 4.12, with a mean of one and a standard deviation of 0.868."

[Esoda]

8. I prefer non-random, unscientific polls

They are not as accurate, but make me feel happy!

[Egnever]

12. Some other things of note in that poll

30% view Hillary less favorably after the debate while only 19% felt the same about Bernie.

61% are not looking forward to another democratic debate. Odd that.

Only 14% of those that responded actually watched the debate...

And more telling really 22% of those that responded only read or watched news stories analyzing the debate.

Really an amazing win for the media.

Considering 22% thought bernie won and 38% thought Hillary won and of those people only 14% watched it I would say Bernie did amazingly well given the media coverage of the debate all declaring Hillary the winner.

And the biggest ROFL of all 33% of the people that responded haven't heard a thing about the debate....

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabs_HP_Democratic_Debate_20151015.pdf

Personally I thought it was pretty close to a tie.

[joshcryer]

26. They asked that of people who watched clips, highlights, or entire debate.

So 45% of the respondents. They removed people who solely watched analysis pieces.

What's interesting is that a whole 19% didn't like anyone in the debates, imo. Most of those are males and over 45, oh, and white. So there's still a lot of conservative democrats (if we're being reasonable about a demographic generalization) who don't like the candidates.

Even more interesting is that unfavorables over Clinton are the highest except for Chafee after the debates.

It's a good poll and I know you're poo-pooing it but I think it tells us a lot about what we are looking at here. I think Sanders did a fine job and we need to get rid of Webb and Chafee next for a better debate (I'd say O'Malley too but he did OK so deserves another shot).

[Egnever]

39. They asked what?

Sorry not understanding what you mean there when you say they asked that.

33% said they hadn't heard anything about the debate.

I am not sure how it can be a good poll when 33% of the people who responded didn't know anything about the debate.

It is interesting though looking at the numbers.

I agree with you on dropping webb and chafee. I doubt either of them helped themselves much.

[joshcryer]

40. I'm saying they didn't ask...

..."what did you think of the debate" to everyone, they asked it to the people who at least watched clips or highlights but not those who watched news pieces. So people could've watched the Sanders/Clinton highlights and still been chosen, but not people who sat there watching CNN.

"Did you watch the entire debate?" <- asked who won
"Did you watch part of the debate? <- asked who won
"Did you watch clips / highlights of the debate?" <- asked who won
"Did you read/watch only news stories about the debate?" <- NOT asked who won

[Egnever]

43. Ahh

Yes you are right I did not see where they cut out the people who only watched analysis or know nothings.

That does make it slightly better but still leaves the majority of the respondents as people who did not really watch the debate and those who only saw what was spoonfed to them by a margin of more than 2 to 1

It does improve my opinion of it a bit though.

[joshcryer]

57. I should note it's unclear...

...if they allowed people who watched clips and watched / read analysis. If so your point is more sound because even Nate Silver said that the media was losing its mind with pro-Clinton coverage.

I always considered the first debate the introduction and getting rid of cruft. I think Sanders is in this for the long haul. I don't see O'Malley gaining because he just doesn't have the ground support Sanders does. I expect O'Malley to start attacking Sanders. Actually, I just searched Google and yep, he is indeed doing that over the Aurora shootings, visiting families of the victims and doubling down on the rhetoric... meh.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. This is exactly what Josh Marshall found the night of the debate.

This is exactly what Josh Marshall of TPM found the night of the debate and the morning immediately after:

We were running Insight polls overnight and this morning, gauging reactions to the debate and re-testing Democratic primary preference questions we've been running for the last four months. Based on those results I would expect you'll see Hillary get a substantial boost in the polls coming out of night's first debate.

...

As I said, she did very well and expect this performance to drive her poll numbers a lot.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/hillary-s-big-big-night

This should disabuse any fair and unbiased person of the notion that the lion's share of Democrats who believed Hillary won were unduly influenced by the media or anybody else.

[Egnever]

30. Not sure how you can make that argument based on that poll

86% didn't watch the debate. The only info they had came from the media.

And this part of your link should worry Clinton

And our numbers show that his already high favorability numbers actually went up significantly. His unfavorables, already low, plummeted. Remember, even if you're a Democratic news junkie and know about Sanders and his campaign, there are many people for whom this was the first time seeing speak live for a substantial amount of time.

Hillary's favorability numbers also went up, but not dramatically

And this part is very troubling should Joe decide to jump in and it is sounding more and more like he might.

Where she got most of her support was from people who'd been supporting Joe Biden (obviously not even in the race) and people who'd moved into the undecided column

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Hillary's favorability numbers also went up, but not dramatically

Hillary's favorability numbers also went up, but not dramatically

She has been in the public eye for nearly five decades. I am not disputing folks opinions of her are largely fixed.

Where she got most of her support was from people who'd been supporting Joe Biden (obviously not even in the race) and people who'd moved into the undecided column... And this part is very troubling should Joe decide to jump in and it is sounding more and more like he might.

If Joe gets in he will lose. Both of his prior presidential runs ended badly, Sure, Hillary lost in 08 but she nearly matched Barack Obama delegate for delegate and vote for vote , garnering over 18, 000, 000 of them.

There's a reason Hillary is at 76% in the predictions markets and Joe Biden is at 10%:

http://www.predictwise.com/

[Egnever]

41. It's not a matter of Joe winning

It is a matter of him siphoning off her support.

He has the potential of being a spoiler for her. Joes support did not go to bernie according to your article it went to Hillary if he jumps in that evaporates. If Bernie continues to gain favorability and lose negatives Hillary will need those people to beat Bernie. She has to get past the primary to get to the general and that is by no means assured. Joe jumping in hurts her chances much more than he hurts Bernies.

Unfortunately living in Nevada I can't get in on that predict wise money. Right now Bernie is looking like a good bet given the odds.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Joe received one percent of the vote the last time he ran.

In order to win the nomination a candidate needs to garner a majority and not a plurality of the delegates. If no candidate receives a majority of delegates on the first ballot their delegates are released from their pledges.


Re: the fantasy, hypothetical situation, if you believe Bernie Sanders can win the nomination with say, 34%, of the delegates while Joe and Hillary split 66% of them there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

Bookmark this post...

We will know who the winner of the Democratic primary is on March 1 and I will give you a hint. She will be a sexagenarian female who hails from the mid west.

I would literally wager on it if anybody is truly game.

[Egnever]

45. That's a lot of confidence when faced with graphs like these

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. You cherry picked two of the most homogeneous and least populous states in the Union.

You cherry picked two of the most homogeneous and least populous states in the Union. Homogeneous states are his wheelhouse. Let's see how he does when they compete in states that demographically look more like America and not homogeneous hamlets.

Please post aggregate polling from heterogeneous states like Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, California, New York, Illinois, Texas, et cetera.

Thank you in advance.


As I said this campaign will be essentially over on March 1st. I would assign the Vermont senator the same chance of wresting the Democratic nomination as I would give Phil Jackson of hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy next June, and again I am willing to wager on both propositions. We can even do a parlay... I will take HRC and the NBA field, lol.

[Egnever]

49. I picked the first two states to vote

Heres Florida and the trend there is similar Hillary is steadily losing support and while Bernie doesn't have the dramatic gains he has in the other two his trend is upwards while hers is only down. She is a known entity it is very hard for her to move the polls. Bernie is relatively unknown in the states you mentioned and so far every place he goes he gains support where every where she goes she seems to be losing it.

She may indeed be the candidate but it is by no means assured.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-florida-presidential-democratic-primary

North Carolina the same.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-north-carolina-democratic-presidential-primary

South carolina the same

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-south-carolina-presidential-democratic-primary

The trends are not looking good for her. She might win but your overconfidence is misplaced if you look at the trends. Losing the first two wont help her either.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. Trends aren't linear , not in life, not in sports, not in politics.

I went to an Asian Fusion buffet last night. I weighed myself this morning. I put on two pounds since yesterday. I assure you I won't weigh 1,000 pounds by November 8, 2016.

[jfern]

16. And yet

Asked which candidates your opinion improved, Sanders leads Hillary 30-29.
Asked with candidates your opinion worsened, Hillary has 30, and Sanders was at 19.

[hrmjustin]

20. Glad to see this.

[Egnever]

22. Not sure why

This poll is pretty embarrassing.

86% of the people who responded didn't watch the debate.

[hrmjustin]

24. That is a fair point. I am happy to see her numbers bump up. But...

We wiill have to see if other polls confirm this.

[Egnever]

35. I suspect she will get a bump

The media has been proclaiming her performance a triumph.

The media does have an effect. The problem with that as I see it is that is a soft number as the media can just as easily turn on her and they will at some point because they want a horse race just not close enough that they don't get to pick the winner.

It will be interesting to watch no matter what and I am not the least bit confused about who will get my vote.

It will be the person with the D behind their name because the alternative is downright horrifying.

[hrmjustin]

36. Yes the alternative is horrific.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. 15,000,000 people watched the debate...

You can do the math. It's beyond my ken.

Figure out the number of Democrats and Democratic leaners there are in the US and I suspect the 14% figure (those who watched the entire debate) makes sense, i.e. one out of every seven Democrats and Democratic leaners watched the debate.

[Egnever]

32. The math is in the poll

86% of the people that responded did not watch the debate. It is in the poll breakdown.

Pretty hard to take a poll that asks who won the debate seriously when 86% of the people they asked didn't even watch it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Precisely

One out of every seven self identified Democrats watched the entire debate. If every self identified Democrat watched the debate viewership would have been closer to seventy million than the fifteen million who actually watched it.

You can massage the numbers all you want. I view the debate as a step on the road to Hillary Clinton becoming our forty fifth president.

By temperament, dint of experience, and intestinal fortitude she is the most qualified candidate in the race, by a mile.

[redstateblues]

27. Obviously an outlier funded by neoliberal corporatist third wayers

[ThePhilosopher04]

31. Bullshit

Now I know the fix is in with this piece of shit so called poll. The media controls us all. We are seriously fucked!!!

[Cali_Democrat]

50. You think the poll was fixed? nt

[Bernblu]

33. When Democratic-leaning independents are included the Hillary's advantage shrinks

The poll also shows that both Clinton and Sanders made good impressions on Democratic voters -- 52 percent said their view of Clinton improved, and 42 percent said the same of Sanders. The difference between candidates disappears if Democratic-leaning independents are included with Democratic voters. Among this larger group, 46 percent say their opinion of each candidate improved.

Democratic-leaning-independents are needed to win the GE. They are also allowed to vote in half of the primaries and caucuses.

I also think think that voters were influenced by the media immediately declaring Hillary the winner. Had they declared Bernie the winner the results would have been very different.

[DCBob]

42. As I expected.

[workinclasszero]

47. Everybody knows Hillary won

except the Bernie internet poll truthers.

Well they know it too but it pisses them off.

[Egnever]

52. Based on what metric

Just curious.

[workinclasszero]

60. Right here

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/nbc-online-poll-clinton-wins-debate-reenergizes-core-backers-n445546

[mhatrw]

48. How many of these 1,000 respondents actually watched the entire debate?

And how many were told what to think about it by their corporate media outlets?

[silvershadow]

53. Did she? nt

[TM99]

54. Reading all of the details of this poll

and its methodology, this is simply not up to the standards that have been discussed ad nauseum with regards to scientific polling.

It is self-selected and it involves a non-standard method of determining a margin of error.

But of course I am so not surprised that Clinton supporters, the hypocrites that they are, are all over this as some gold standard proof that she won.

If it wasn't so serious this corporate take-over of our democracy, I would be laughing my ass off.

[delrem]

55. Ah, so you finally found a poll that you can like!

Congratulations! You obviously "win".
hehe