POLL: Hillary Clinton just took the lead...IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

[JaneyVee]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-WB-58647

Albeit, a 2 point lead 37-35.

[mcar]

1. K&R

[workinclasszero]

2. But..but..Bernie won the debates!

All the internet clickbait polls said so!!11!!

GO HILLARY!!!!!!

[upaloopa]

14. And all 50 states !

[workinclasszero]

34. But of course!

[enid602]

134. bbb

Burn, Bernie, Burn.

[sulphurdunn]

106. Of course Sanders won.

Anybody with a three digit IQ capable of objective thought knows that

[sufrommich]

113. "Billary"???

Some of you are becoming a little unhinged.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

131. I am profoundly disappointed that three of my fellow members allowed this calumny to stand

I am profoundly disappointed that three of my fellow members allowed this calumny to stand:

108. Sorry, but BILLARY LOST the debate !

It is incumbent upon them to reveal themselves and share their reasoning with the rest of us.

[okasha]

137. I am profoundly disappointed

(but not surprised) that three of my fellow members are sexist bacon on the hoof.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

138. I used to think bigotry was endemic to the right, no more.

eom

[okasha]

139. Unfortunarely, it's catching.

But I think that many "leftists" here aren't leftists at all. There's a whiff of Ron Paul in the air.

[workinclasszero]

115. Billary?

That term is straight out of redstate SMH

[tecelote]

114. Suddenly, Hillary supporters love polls.

It's pretty obvious the race is still on.

[riversedge]

152. Only the scientific ones.

[StrongBad]

3. Well whaddya know, actual scientific polls contradicting internet polls

Who woulda thunk it?

Congrats to Hillary. Did anyone also notice that 54% thought she won the debate?

[kelliekat44]

105. You mean actual people thinking with the heads and not with their hearts. It may not hold but

this is a signal that pragmatism may yet win the day and win some of the battles with the GOP.

[Scootaloo]

4. Yes, but is it scientific?

...I just wanted to use that gif.

[workinclasszero]

9. Haha

Great gif!

[still_one]

11. It correlates with the last poll from Gravis between 10/5 and 10/6 were it was Bernie +3

Gravis 10/5 - 10/6 Bernie 33 Hillary 30

In other words, the lead that Bernie had in NH is now even from the last two polls

[onehandle]

12. I want that man to be our next NASA Director. nt

[Volaris]

98. Agreed. I wonder if there's a way to inform the Democratic Candidates

That might actually move them to agree...

[JaneyVee]

29. I like.

[MynameisBlarney]

53. I am SOOOO stealing that gif!!!!

LOVE IT!!!

Now, back to the topic at hand.
As I've said before, I support Bernie and REALLY hope he gets the nom, but if Hillary does instead, she'll have my full support and my vote.

[Scootaloo]

58. I'll likely vote for her on the basis of not being a Republican.

I held my nose for kerry, after all. However, I feel Clinton's more tenuous. She ran a nasty fucking campaign against bama in 2008, full of race-baiting and dog whistling. She outright endorsed McCain' foreign policy proposals over Obama's - And in light of her talk about "obliterating" Iran, and her recent declaration that iran is her "best enemy"?

Right now? I could vote for her, if I had to. But she has a year and two weeks to lose that vote.

[MynameisBlarney]

65. Right there with ya.

100%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. This is great news...I am heading to the gym soon...This will provide added motivation.

eom

[still_one]

6. The trend was starting to reverse itself before the debate

Boston Globe/Suffolk 10/14 - 10/15 500 LV 35 37 11 3 1 1 Clinton +2
Gravis 10/5 - 10/6 373 RV 33 30 11 1 2 1 Sanders +3
NBC/WSJ 9/23 - 9/30 404 RV 42 28 18 1 2 1 Sanders +14

[MoonRiver]

7. WooHoo! Awesome news!

[HereSince1628]

8. And on to the coronation! It's the come back kid version...whatever.

Huzzahs!

[StrongBad]

13. It's not a coronation when people vote for her after learning about all candidates.

[HereSince1628]

15. If there's a crown, it will be a coronation.

[enid602]

136. vetted

I don't know if I've ever seen a more vetted candidate.

[upaloopa]

18. I was thinking this morning, who is trying the hardest

to get me to vote for a certain candidate?
Who is posting the most anti candidate bull shit on line? Who is going on social media bashing people who don't support a particular candidate?
Who is running people off discussion boards?

[George II]

24. And who was organizing a concerted effort to skew the "online polls"? This is who:

[upaloopa]

43. I wish we could put this permanately on the home page

[hopemountain]

127. pfft.those are calls on bernie support pages.

totally legit and expected of any and all candidate/campaign support pages.

it's the mainstream propaganda, lying, and censorship that is voter manipulation and tampering.

we are all responding just as the the corporate 1% expects. divisively.

[Scootaloo]

44. Nobody's trying to get you to vote for anyone, upaloopa

We already realize you're a lost cause.

[upaloopa]

89. Likewise nobody is forcing Hillary on you

I take your reply as a complement

[Scootaloo]

93. No, I just get loyalty oath demands three times a day

breakfast, Elevensies, and dinner.

[NealK]

97. +1

[onehandle]

10. Yeah, but what about the online Clicky-Clicky against her?

[font size="5"]#45[/font]

[img][/img]

[workinclasszero]

20. Aww the internets magician haz a sad...

[okasha]

143. Meanwhile,

Newlyweds Dumbledore and Gandalf support Hillary.

[cosmicone]

16. Hillary is surging whilst Bernie is in a free fall

drip drip drip

And by the way ... Hillary was going to drop like a rock after the debates!!!

[d_legendary1]

110. She blew a 60-point lead against Sanders when they first started

How is Sanders free falling exactly?

[Walk away]

155. That's actually funny!

Are you really having to resort to something so nonsensical as your proof of "winning" now? That just makes Bernie supporter look even more sad. Incredible!

[d_legendary1]

158. Losing a lead is funny?

I don't recall you guys laughing in 2008. Maybe you'll laugh when the guy who came out of nowhere selling out venues becomes the nominee.

[cosmicone]

17. Time for self-soothing: Bernie is in better shape now than Obama in 2007 n/t

[iamthe99]

19. That's considered a dead heat not the lead

no matter how they are trying to spin it as a lead.

[Dem2]

23. True

I think people are noting a large swing from +14 to -2 in a few weeks.

[iamthe99]

31. That is a fair assessment but the thread title the OP wrote disagrees with her link posted

Her thread title should be changed to Sanders and Clinton in dead heat in New Hampshire

[Dem2]

33. And other stories on this poll use that wording exactly n/t

[questionseverything]

56. yes out of 500 voters she has in this poll, a 7 person lead

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_16_2015_final_marginals.pdf

they said they started by asking for the youngest member of the house and only got 18 people under 24

saw a clip of some campaign stop she is doing today...literally all the supporters behind her looked older than me and i am a great grand parent

what it tells me is we have got to connect with the older crowd better

[CajunBlazer]

147. Careful, us old farts vote in much higher percentages that the young punks

[72DejaVu]

151. New Hampshire is demographically an older than average state

Not as old as Maine, but close.

[questionseverything]

156. 18 voters out of 500 under 24 years

105 voters over 65 years,,,in that poll...that is not representative

it can't be that old

point is this polling outfits know who they are calling and how that house votes

it is called "manufactured consent"

[JaneyVee]

72. Is 37 higher than 35?

[Ed Suspicious]

85. Are you familiar with margin of error?

[JaneyVee]

88. Yes, of course. But 37 is more than 35.

And MOE could also mean she's +7.

[BeanMusical]

122. Moe could also mean this:

[mythology]

99. Correct

Any individual poll within the margin of error is a dead heat.

[George II]

21. Just as I suspected a few weeks ago and confirmed on Tuesday night:

After the first debate she would rebound after a good performance, and she had that good performance on Tuesday night.

Sanders tailed off and basically stalled toward the end of August, early September, and now we're seeing reality set in.

[BeanMusical]

125. So you are in favor of more debates then?

[juajen]

153. I personally do not like a lot of debates.

It seems to be so repititious. We had so many people watching this debate and it seems to me that boredom seeps in when there are too many. A smaller number makes our debates much more inclusive and interesting.

[iamthe99]

22. How stuff works

http://people.howstuffworks.com/political-polling2.htm

[workinclasszero]

26. Math and statistics are hard

Internets magic is easier

[ram2008]

25. Is this Boston globes first NH poll?

I'd like to see numbers from organizations before jumping to conclusions that have already polled the state just to see if there really is a trend or it's just their methodology.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Suffolk's second

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls

[MADem]

109. 2nd this cycle, but they've been at this for years. This ain't their first rodeo.

They've been accurate in the past, if that helps.

[youceyec]

27. A total of 54% believed Mrs. Clinton won the debate, versus 23% who thought Mr. Sanders prevailed.

real polls. not online fantasy non sense.

[Skwmom]

39. 42.8% did not watch the debate. Okay they weren't asked who won.

Last edited Fri Oct 16, 2015, 04:29 PM - Edit history (1)

But repeatedly hearing Clinton won the debate most likely influenced the opinion of even some people who did watch the debate.

The poll was conducted Oct 14th and 15th. Didn't they use to do overnight polls on this topic - that took place right after the debate?

[quickesst]

57. Here's the thing

Some are trying to make it sound as if Clinton supporters are the only ones who did not watch the debate and base their opinion on word of mouth or polls. I have a feeling there were probably quite a few Bernie supporters who did not watch the debate, and also based their opinion that he won on that same word of mouth or poll. Correct me if I am wrong in my assessment. Thanks

[DCBob]

68. A big part of winning a debate is convincing the media and pundits you won the debate.

Hillary did that and more.

[Renew Deal]

79. And yet the debate had record viewership

[wyldwolf]

59. Sanders supporters frantically clicked anywhere the could on the pollsters website...

... have concluded it's a DNC plot...

[WI_DEM]

30. I will be interested in seeing what PPP reports on Monday

as they are polling NH this weekend and if they show her closing in on Bernie or leading then it would seem that after a horrible summer that HRC is making a Fall comeback.

[bunnies]

32. 65% landlines.

Damn. Gotta get me one of those.

[WI_DEM]

35. yes, but lots of people have both a landline and cell phone.

[bunnies]

47. I dont know anyone.

I must lead a sheltered life.

[questionseverything]

60. look at the internals

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_16_2015_final_marginals.pdf

only 18 people under 24 were polled

108 people over 65 were polled

we do need to do a better job reaching the older voters

[Maedhros]

64. Older voters tend to get their information from the television, which outright lies to them.

Television communication is owned and controlled, and can be sold to the highest bidder (and we know who that is).

[Gloria]

102. ....Unlike the INTERNETS which don't have ANY crap on those tube things

which moves the ether-info around like magic....into the wires and air, words and pictures, oh my...all TRUE!!!!!

[CajunBlazer]

148. Yep, somepeople get all of their information on the internet...

... and you know that everything on the internet is absolutely true. How do I know that - I read it on the internet.

[MADem]

111. I have three landlines and one cellphone. nt

[Broward]

36. And we use to mock the Republicans for voting against their own economic self interests.

[StrongBad]

38. I guess this is the new line from Sanders supporters. Dems are too dumb to vote correctly.

[upaloopa]

40. I think they are at the stage where you throw

anything at the wall hoping something sticks.

[okasha]

144. Some are still in denial.

Others have moved on to anger.

Negotiation is next, and it should be interesting.

[iamthe99]

45. It's an interesting primary

Some will vote based on gender only
Some will vote based on their own economic situation
Some will vote based on what the MSM tells them they should do
etc etc...


If contrast was used in who would move America in the right direction for the future
the clear winner would be Senator Sanders
For some an election is a popularity contest and nothing more.


Oh well going to walk my dogs now

[Cali_Democrat]

49. Clinton supporters will be flocking to Sanders after hearing this line. nt

[Broward]

77. No, more misinformed than anything thanks in no small part to

a feckless mainstream media and a less than straightforward Hillary Clinton.

[ucrdem]

37. What a difference a debate makes.

[workinclasszero]

41. Wasn't that the rallying cry of the Bernie true believers?

Just wait till the debates!

Well we waited...

And..

Hillary OWNED!

[ucrdem]

42. He's feeling the Bern.

[workinclasszero]

46. OUCH!

The reality...it burns!

[iamthe99]

48. username ironic

[whatchamacallit]

50. Interesting huh? n/t

[SidDithers]

149. Welcome to DU...nt

Sid

[MoonRiver]

76. The BERN turns!

[MADem]

116. Ha ha ha!

The Bern of the Screw.....

The Bern of the Century...

Someone got issued a BERN Notice....

But seriously....I don't think anyone would make the case that Sanders is not a decent human being--I think in the HRC group--DESPITE the snark, the stalks, the attacks and the bitterness directed at the minority on this board who DARE to support Clinton--Sanders remains our second choice for the nomination, by and large (there are a few O'Malleys in there, too).

He's not a bad guy. He's just not the best on offer. The best is Hillary Clinton, former SECSTATE, former Senator, former First Lady, former Watergate staffer, former vote canvasser for McGovern way, way back in the day. She's been there, done that, and bought the tee shirts. She is a known quantity on the world stage, and she is formidable.

[MoonRiver]

119. I agree. Our country will fare well under President Hillary Clinton.

But I'm guessing Senator Sanders will have her ear on many issues.

[MADem]

120. He'd make a good Secretary of Labor. We haven't had a good one in a while. nt

[MoonRiver]

121. Wouldn't that be sweet! nt

[MADem]

123. He certainly wouldn't be cowed giving testimony to Congress.

I can picture him advocating for a fifteen buck minimum and telling those Republican House/Senate members "Excuse ME...I haven't FINISHED my THOUGHT....."

[MoonRiver]

126. But do you think he would give up being a Senator?

I'm not so sure, although he certainly is "retirement age."

[MADem]

133. To spend the next eight years as Labor Secretary? Sure, why not.

He's done the House, he's done the Senate--he is eligible to collect a pension for that service now.

It's a step up to have a seat in the President's cabinet. And he could do good in that gig.

[MoonRiver]

141. I think we have a plan MADem!

[stevenleser]

117. Bernie is berning out!

[Skwmom]

51. How do they decide what percentage of an age group to poll?

How do they define the age groups?

Looking at different polls, the age groupings aren't even the same.

[StrongBad]

54. Based on past voting patterns and demographics within the state. Also self identification as a Dem.

With that information a representative sample is created.

[BainsBane]

52. I hope we have many, many more debates

Just like the Sanders supporters want.

[cosmicone]

61. I second that n/t

[HubertHeaver]

92. That would be wonderful.

I think both Webb and Chaffee would be gone in short order. The fiction that Biden wants in would go away.

That leaves three serious candidates time to fully elucidate their respective positions.

[LongTomH]

55. Two points????? Two whole points?????

[brooklynite]

62. In 2008, Clinton won NH by.....2.5 points

[LongTomH]

66. This is a poll, not the actual primary election and two points is "margin of error"

Polls can be expected to vary, day by day, week by week. It's a bit premature to gloat over a two-point lead.

[firebrand80]

63. Bernie supporters

will be "unskewing" polls soon.

[rocktivity]

67. She's on the high end of a post-debate bounce

will it hold until February?




rocktivity

[Adrahil]

70. Wait... I was assured the polls would secure Bernie's victory!

Anything van happen between now and February, but I find it funny that Bernista narrative isn't unfolding quite as planned.

[Todays_Illusion]

69. This year is not a year to believe the pollsters, especially now everyone saw how the debate votes

Openly manipulated and lied about by every so called main stream news provider/propagandist.

[StrongBad]

74. So Dem minds are so fragile they easily believe and follow what the MSM says?

If that's the case why do you want Sanders to lead the party?

And won't the media eventually be more biased to the Republican?

How can Sanders win the media game against a Republican if he can't handle a Democrat?

[Todays_Illusion]

86. I said don't believe the polls, I haven't believed them for a long time, they have the single

purpose of manipulation of opinion, that has been their purpose since the beginning.

Take Gallup, purchased unnamed billionaire back in the 80s, nothing but garbage and push polling since though they have that allegedly respectable opinion.

The supposedly center/right PEW is just another right wing propaganda site.

I seem to have missed your point,

I said don't trust the polling, you said ?

[StrongBad]

87. You can not trust them, but they're historically reliable and a good predictor of outcomes.

See: 2008 and 2012 especially.

[DCBob]

71. Great news... although it doesn't surprise me.

Things have been moving Hillary's way recently.

[JaneyVee]

73. And this poll includes Biden.

Her numbers may be higher.

[DCBob]

78. Really.. No doubt her numbers will be higher once Joe is out.

Things are looking good!

[Old Codger]

75. Grasping at straws

Wall street journal?? No bias there.. LOL

[Renew Deal]

80. Your post reminds me of this video

[brooklynite]

81. No...Boston Globe, prepared by Suffolk University

Just reported by the WSJ.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141235460

Isn't politics fun when you actually research it?

[Old Codger]

132. My main point really

was supposed to be more along the lines of anyone touting a 1 or 2 point lead in any poll is not really very realistic, well within the margin for error and meaningless until you look at the fact that Bernie is that close..that tells more of a story than the actual difference in the numbers...

[Bubzer]

82. With a 4.4% margin of error

That's a pretty substantial margin of error.

[JaneyVee]

84. Actually, that's a pretty standard MOE.

And consider that Biden is still being polled and NH is Bernie's backyard.

[Bubzer]

94. Standard MOE tends to be 3% - 3.5%... this is a little outside that.

What you call a standard MOE permits an 8.8% range (4.4% either in favor of Hillary or in favor of Bernie) of fallibility on the listed numbers. That's nearly 10% margin for error! Considering how close those numbers are, that's huge!

It could mean the difference between 32-39 Bernie or 41-31 Hillary.

Either way, it looks like it may be a statistical tie at this point.

[Agnosticsherbet]

83. Clinton's performance showed that media's narrative on Clinton was wrong.

[R B Garr]

90. Great! Hating billionaires is not a policy proposal.

Sanders needs to offer more than his vanity stump speech at the debates.

Hillary brought policy proposals with a Presidential demeanor. Double plus!

[DFW]

91. Don't count yer chickens too early

It'll be over half a year before the nominee is decided. None of the rah-rah posts on here have changed that for me. No candidate has this locked up. Change a few key words in some of the rhetoric supporting one candidate, and you can transform it into the same shtick for the other candidate. Some self-righteous clown in the Sanders group banned me (I wasn't there intentionally, so no damage done), for essentially saying the same thing there.

Neither candidate has this nomination in the bag, and neither has (so far) such a comprehensive message that I feel totally convinced to back him/her. As as American in Europe, I am very tuned in to foreign policy, and I need to hear some relevant stuff that will directly affect me and my family before I commit. Despite being a former Secretary of State, I don't feel Hillary has closed the deal, and as one of the longest serving members of Congress, I don't feel that Bernie has done it for me either.

Like the OP said, 2 points. Even in basketball, that's a lead that is considered fragile at best. Keep in mind that if it turns to 37%-35% for Bernie tomorrow in NH, you'll be seeing the same crowing from people who back him.

[MoonRiver]

104. I has to do with how far she was behind in NH before the debate.

I don't remember exactly, but it might have been double digits (in NH). That's a big jump. Hence the excitement.

[DFW]

157. I get all that

But it's still a ways out from the primary. Neither side has a solid reason to pat themselves on the back just yet, although I realize there is always a temptation to do so at every bit of news that's favorable to one side or the other. There's just too much room for something unexpected to happen for fans of any candidate to start their victory strutting, the way I see it. Obviously, plenty of said fans think I'm wrong, but one or the the other group is going to have to admit I was right in about 10 months.

The thing I care most about is no Republican being in a position to nominate any Supreme Court judges in the next five, preferably nine, years. A Republican in the White House with so many of the justices at or approaching 80 years old is FAR more frightening to me than any of the Democratic candidates that can be taken seriously at this point.

[RoccoR5955]

95. Still within the margin of error. n/t

[DCBob]

96. Here's more from the poll..

After a commanding performance in this week’s Democratic presidential debate, Hillary Clinton reclaimed some of the ground she’d lost to Senator Bernie Sanders over the summer, leaving the two candidates in a statistical dead heat in New Hampshire, a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll found.

The survey, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, showed Clinton pulling ahead of Sanders, 37 percent to 35 percent. The poll of 500 likely voters in the Democratic primary had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Among voters who watched the debate, Clinton opened up a 5-point lead over Sanders. And despite a pushback from Sanders’ fervid supporters who thought his strong debate performance was being overlooked by the media, poll respondents overwhelmingly agreed that Clinton won the debate.

=================

Note the part in bold.

[raindaddy]

100. If elected and Hillary doesn't change the system this celebration will be meaningless.

Only 30 % of Americans identify with the Democratic party and even less for the Republicans and those numbers have steadily declined over the years.

If Hillary becomes President and continues down the same neoliberal path the party has taken for the last couple of decades those numbers will continue to decline...

People are dissatisfied with the system and if Hillary isn't serious about changing it she and the party will take the heat.

[stevenleser]

118. No one changes the system this time. We will have a Republican House through Jan 2023 due to

redistricting.

[Gothmog]

101. That is great news

It is still a couple of months until the primary but the trend line is no longer skewed

[RandySF]

103. K&R

[MADem]

107. Oops!

It wasn't one of those INTERNET polls was it?

Because only those--with people of partisan intent herding clickers to the site--are accurate, so I am led to believe.

What? SUFFOLK University/Boston Globe? Uh oh!

Rather difficult to pass that off as "fly-by-night" even if one isn't enamoured of the results....

[HerbChestnut]

112. Ages 65+ gets 21% of the sample pool, but 18-24 only gets 3.6%?

Really? I wonder what the final numbers would have looked like if those two demographics were even like they are in most polls.

[CajunBlazer]

135. Polling is getting difficult these days because.....

most young people have cell phones, but don't have land lines. It is a valid point that younger people may be more apt to support one candidate or the other and that they might are under represented in this poll.

On the other hand If these polls all survey likely voters, we need to keep in mind that the over 65 crowd votes in much higher percentages than the younger folks. That would certainly help to explain the difference in polling rates between the two age groups. There are simply a much greater percentage of old folks who will tell the pollsters that they are going to vote and thus be included in the sample

However, the bottom line is that regardless of all of the above - we need that take into consideration that all polls have more or less the same problems and biases. Therefore, when a number of polls of the same type (for instance they all survey only likely voters) are performed over time, when the results are combined, there is every reason to believe trends are real.

What is very scary in this thread is the number of people who don't know the difference between casual polls (such has internet polls where only the very motivated participate and where they can sometimes vote as many times as they would like) and scientific polls. People of that sort are usually driven by emotion, not facts.

[jfern]

124. 1.4 point lead, 4.4 point MOE

Other recent polls show Bernie up 3-16 points.
Lets just say Bernie is up about 5 points.

[BooScout]

128. K&R

[Kalidurga]

129. I wish it was a 10 point lead.

Bernie campaigns best when it is from behind. Just like Obama when he got trounced in the first debate against Romney (I thought Obama won on substance of course) and then Obama went on to claim decisive victories over Romney in the next two debates. Bernie is going to learn from his mistakes and come out swinging, respectfully of course.

[Egnever]

130. Well done CNN FOX MSNBC etc

it worked!

[CajunBlazer]

140. Knowledgable people don't pay attention to internet polls

Such polls are almost always controlled by the most passionate people.

Here a real life example. I was involve in a very motivated group of people on one side of a local issue. We were a small group, but we were very passionate and we kept in touch with social media. Whenever the local newspaper, magazine or radio station put up a poll on the issue on the net, we spread the word and jumped all over it.

We manipulated those internet polls so that they always showed a very large percentage of the vote on our side of the issue. The internet polls which allowed the same person to vote multiple times from the same PC were the easiest to manipulate. I can remember voting 100 times on one poll. However, we also manipulated the polls which restricted people to a single vote because we were organized, and this is the real key, we much more motivated than the opposition.

We were very fortunate that most people are totally unaware that internet polls results have almost no relationship with reality.

Here is another reality check - I am a former member of a debate team who watched the entire Democratic debate who happens to believe that Clinton won and I didn't vote in a single internet poll. Why because I know they are totally worthless. However, I will vote in the primary and I will in November of 2016.

[Egnever]

142. There were more than internet polls

You know that though.

[CajunBlazer]

145. I pay most attention to the latest polls and to the trend lines

"were" is the operative word.

By the way, I have had numerous statistics courses including one that was centered on scientific polling - I kind of know the landscape.

[Egnever]

146. Well the trend has not been going Hillaries way

Pretty ugly trends for her

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus

[CajunBlazer]

150. My bad - should have said the latest trend - the one after the debate.

And remember Iowa is the easiest state for an under dog to win and NH is one of the most liberal states in the country. If Bernie is about even in those states, he is in big trouble.

But hey, Bernie never expected to win - his objective was to ensure that no one ignored his pet issues and he accomplished that. I'll bet that no one is more surprised how well he has done then Bernie himself, but I bet he is still realistic.

Good for Bernie.

[mhatrw]

154. Bernie has gained 8% points since this outfit's last poll. nt