Millennials warming to Sanders, cooling to Clinton

[Uncle Joe]

Millennials are feeling the Bern, according to the latest results from a national NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll of Democrats out Friday.

Hillary Clinton still leads Bernie Sanders 45 percent to 31 percent, essentially unchanged from last month's survey. But among those born between roughly 1985 and 1997, 54 percent back the democratic socialist senator from Vermont. Just 26 percent supported Clinton, down from 34 percent in September and 36 percent in August.

Vice President Joe Biden went down to 10 percent from 15 percent last month, while other candidates earned 1 percent or less.

(snip)

The poll was conducted by SurveyMonkey from Oct. 13-15, surveying 1,857 registered Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/poll-millennials-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-214874#ixzz3olF1ifUc

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. Posted with emphasis; but, no coment ...

The NBC News Online Poll was conducted online by SurveyMonkey October 13-15, 2015 among a national sample of 4,898 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census

Bureau’s



American Community Survey

to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that panelists have to respond to and complete the survey.

[Uncle Joe]

3. And the probability sample is based on? n/t

[1StrongBlackMan]

4. I'm not being flip, but go to the survey ... it has 3 or 4 paragraphs of disclaimers ...

which is necessary in order to have any Online poll approach valid.

[Uncle Joe]

5. I understand that you're not being flip but you highlighted "probability sample" and to my

understanding of those words, meaning those most likely to vote.

If that's the case my post#2 is directed toward those concerns, I was actually in the process of drafting post#2 before I saw your post.

[artislife]

14. But does it sound wrong to you?

I see lots of millenials supporting Bernie..can I prove it..no.

So from your vantage point does this seem, unscientificly, to be far off?

Just talking gut to gut here.

[1StrongBlackMan]

15. Does it sound wrong to me? Well ...

It essentially mean ... "Here are the results of my online poll; but online polling has reliability problems and those same problems apply here."

I'll go farther than gut ... Though admittedly, not much further ...

I work at a Major University and my wife works at a community college. Both, institutions' papers recently (non-scientifically) surveyed their student bodies, specifically asking whether the students were registered to vote and whether they planned to vote in the 2016 General Election ... both, papers reported less than 40% of the respondents were registered to vote, and only 25% were "Definitely" going to vote, another 11% were "considering" voting (with the community college students less registered and less "planning to vote).

So, while we are seeing "lots of" millennials supporting Bernie, millennials appear to be doing what millennials (of this era) do ... talk, rally sit shout about change; but, not vote.

Interestingly, I came across an article that reported (IIRC) millennial of this era (20-teens) are voting at a rate, 80% less than 18 -34 year olds that came of age in the 1970s. (I'll try and find post the article)

[artislife]

16. So you don't see it.

Fair enough.

But I would think that this election will get more real interest as we go along. I find it hard to vote in the small elections but do out of principal. Then again, my state sends me my ballot with a guide.

[1StrongBlackMan]

18. No, I actually do see Millennials flocking to Bernie ...

I, also, see them at HRC and Martin O'Malley events ... my point is, millennials (historically) are the most unreliable of voter blocks. And, I have a theory as to why.

Society has conditioned them towards independence of action and (near) instant results ... all of which cuts against politics, where most that is accomplished ... is accomplished through working with others and compromise, and happens slowly.

[Uncle Joe]

2. There are five dynamics that suggest Millennials will turn out in greater force than in previous

elections and that polls discounting them are flawed.

1. Bernie has received record breaking numbers of campaign donations via the Internet and Millennials make up the second highest generational group of Internet users. If you're sending your hard earned dollars to promote a candidate you're mostly certainly going to vote.

2. Millennials would most be interested in having four years of tuition free public college and having their high interest anchor loans reduced, Bernie supports this.

With the first Democratic Party presidential debate taking place tonight, one of the biggest talking points around college campuses is democratic candidate Bernie Sanders' plan to provide free college tuition for all students attending public universities.

Under the College for All Act, Sanders plans to provide all students attending a four-year undergraduate program at public universities with free tuition, with the federal government covering 67 percent of the costs and the state governments covering the remaining 33 percent.

"Education is a basic human right," president of MSU Students for Sanders Brieann Sauer said in an email. "Everyone has that right, not just those who can afford to buy it. The United States can currently afford it, but is simply refusing to place our future leaders' education as a priority."

The act also plans to reduce student loan rates by almost half the amount, as well as ensure they will never rise above 8.25 percent. Those who have already borrowed money for student loans would also be able to refinance their loans to be based on the new, lower interest rates.

http://statenews.com/article/2015/10/bernie-sanders-college-for-all

3. Millennials would be most affected by having the minimum wage increase to $15.00 an hour, Bernie supports this.

2. Raise the Minimum Wage to $15

Sanders plans to increase the minimum wage to $15 by 2020, while increasing the tipped minimum wage from $2.13 to $15 by 2023. A Pew Research Center Survey found that 73 percent of people at least want the federal minimum wage to be $10.10 an hour. Republicans are split down the middle with 53 percent in favor and 43 percent opposed. An overwhelming majority, 90 percent, of Democrats, and 71 percent of Independents are in favor of raising the minimum wage.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13323001/1/in-demdebate-bernie-sanders-reiterates-plan-to-end-income-inequality.html

4. Millennials would be most affected by having 12 weeks paid for family leave after having a baby, Bernie supports this.

Bernie Sanders says 'every other major country' has family paid leave except United States

"You see every other major country saying to moms that, when you have a baby, we're not gonna separate you from your newborn baby, because we are going to have medical and family paid leave, like every other country on Earth," he said during the first Democratic presidential debate.

(snip)

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/14/bernie-s/bernie-sanders-says-every-other-major-country-has-/

5. Millennials are most affected by war and to this end Bernie views it as a last resort, not a a first.

[liberal_at_heart]

8. Absolutely. College debt and wages are catching the attention of Millennials.

And there is a big difference between Sanders and Clinton on college education.

[onenote]

6. one of the odder findings of this poll

not directly related to the age group support issue: 15 percent said that, based on what they had heard or read, Clinton did the worst job in the debate. Now, given that the media reporting on the debate certainly did not suggest that and no one that watched the debate could rationally say Clinton did a worse job than Chafee or Webb, what are we to make of that number?

[Uncle Joe]

7. They didn't say that Hillary did worse than Chafee or Webb

Chafee got 20% worse and Webb got 17%

15% thought Hillary did worse and 5% thought Bernie did worse.

[onenote]

9. Yes they did.

The question posed was "17. From what you have heard and read, who do you think did the worst job in the Democratic debate?"

Worst, as in worse than everyone else. Yes, 20 percent of the respondents thought Chafee was the worst and 17 percent thought Webb did the worst. But 15 percent said HRC did worse than either of those two and everyone else. In short, nearly as many people said Clinton was the bottom of the barrel in the debate, almost as many as said it was Webb or Chafee.

Got an explanation of how a rational person could come to that conclusion?

[Uncle Joe]

10. I disagree with that but people are entitled to their own opinion.

Apparently most of the people on this same poll also thought that Hillary did best with Bernie coming in second, I disagree with that as well, I thought as the focus groups did that Bernie won.

[onenote]

11. I think rational people can disagree as to whether Bernie or Clinton did best

and I agree people are entitled to their own opinion. And that means that the one percent of those responding who are of the opinion that Lincoln Chafee did the best job in the debate are entitled to that opinion. But it doesn't mean their opinion is rational, which it decidedly is not. And neither is the opinion of the 15 percent who responded that Clinton did the worst job in the debate. Nor is opinion of the five percent that thought Bernie did the worst job in the debate a rational opinion.

[Uncle Joe]

12. I believe the same holds true with any poll. n/t

[reformist2]

17. To the younger generation, "the media" is Twitter, reddit, and even places like DU! Not CNN ABC NBC.