Clinton up 3% in post-Debate Election poll...

[brooklynite]

Sanders up 5%, Biden down 4%, Web at 1%, O'Malley, Chafee at <1%.

Clinton rated as best able to handle:
-Foreign Policy
-Gun Policy
-Income Inequality

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/19/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-democratic-debate/index.html

[peacebird]

1. But she's still way down from the summer, & Sanders keeps moving up!

[orpupilofnature57]

3. Issues hopefully will outweigh the smoke & mirrors of M$M, $$$$$$, and business as usual .

[stevenleser]

15. See DCBob's #12. It's not close and not really going to get close. nt

[youceyec]

22. Pls. get real.

When is the last time someone won with 70% of the national vote? Of course her number, or anyone else's would not have stayed that high.

[thesquanderer]

23. I don't think she ever polled at 70% of the national vote.

70% of registered Dems is a different thing.

But you're right, there was no way her numbers were going to stay in the stratosphere once she wasn't the only person in the race.

[Duckhunter935]

2. Sanders up 5

Like how you highlight the lower figure

[brooklynite]

7. I highlighted the candidate who's in the lead...

...and didn't omit Sanders or anyone else.

[stevenleser]

16. See DCBob's #12. That Sanders has been mentioned at all is a gift to him. He's not close and

won't get close.

[PatrynXX]

21. yeah noticed that

that was annoying. shows who won the debate up 5 % oddly I find him probably better at handling Guns than anyone else. Mostly because he's worked with the other side..

[Jan Bunson]

4. After all that post-debate coverage?

Considering how the MSM went lock-stop into a "Hillary is a winner" mode last week,
that she only got a 3% bump out of it is a little surprising.

More surprising than O'Malley dropping into the "pure static" territory, even.

[mythology]

10. The margin of error on the Democratic portion of the poll is 5%

So mostly what it indicates is that neither candidate especially outdid the other. It does speak to the smaller role debates have, especially debates that aren't really debates, more a series of campaign responses.

[thesquanderer]

25. MOE means, unlike BS, HRC actually might have gone down.

HRC's 3 point bounce with a 5 point margin of error means it's possible that she could have gone down two points.

BS' 5 point bounce with a 5 point margin or error means he's either the same or up.

But really, when these candidates are at 3 and 5 points up with a 5 point MOE, you can't have any confidence in either one of them having come out of the debate better than the other. So based on this data, essentially, a tie.

[edgineered]

5. Thank you for a positive framing. nt

[JaneyVee]

6. Hillary and Bernie will both go up as Joe goes down.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. The answers to questions 24, 25, and 28 are instructive.

The race hasn't moved in two months.

[Buns_of_Fire]

9. ...which still includes Biden, I see.

Therefore, worthless at best, misleading at worst.

[onehandle]

11. So she's still far, far ahead no matter how you view the numbers.

Good to know.

[DCBob]

12. Without Biden, Clinton lead jumps to 23 points... Clinton: 56% Sanders: 33%

"Should Biden decide to sit out the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton's lead over Sanders climbs to 23 points: 56% would back Clinton, 33% Sanders."

[uponit7771]

13. The media has to make anything a horse race, even gen up candidates that aren't running!!

[Keep-Left]

17. isnt that sad they keep including Biden

when he isn't even running right now?

They should just post the numbers without Biden. Then if he gets in start putting his numbers in. Its such BS

[bahrbearian]

14. In other headlines , Hilliary Down 2 points against Sanders after Debate

[uponit7771]

18. With or without the non running Biden?

[Eric J in MN]

19. CNN polled both ways.

The results above are with-Biden.

Without him:

"Clinton's lead over Sanders climbs to 23 points: 56% would back Clinton, 33% Sanders."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Which is exactly where the race stood two months ago, according to that poll.

eom

[CoffeeCat]

24. The ONLY polls that matter now--are state polls

This is exactly what happened to Obama in the 2008 primary. He went from very horrible poll numbers, to slowly creeping upward in national polls.

Meanwhile--In Iowa and NH--Obama began to gain momentum.

It's a different world in the states where the campaigns are running at full speed. The entire race changes. Television ads, countless public appearances, publicity pieces mailed to you--and endorsements from well-known people in these states--the confluence of these factors shifts these races. In my state of Iowa, it's political wildfire right now. Reporters from CNN and other major news outlets are all over the place. Campaign events are everywhere. I could meet both candidates next week if I wanted. Their ads play incessantly and politics is big news, locally. We are inundated in Iowa! But most of the nation remains oblivious to what is happening here. But it is happening and these campaigns change the tone, tenor and complexion of the race.

Furthermore, many people don't fully pay attention until its primary season in their state. Of course, Hillary will have an advantage pre-primary because of her name recognition. She's well known, as well--from running in 08.

The same thing happened to Obama. I remember him being behind 40+ points in many national polls.

But state by state--he kept picking them off.

And just like last time around in 08--the Clinton camp used these national polls to suggest that Obama was "unelectable" and that he couldn't win a GE. His supporters were positioned as young and naive--and even sexist! The national polls were used as weapons against Obama to prove that he was weak and that Hillary was going to win anyway, so why bother supporting this guy (the ol' inevitability card).

And just like last time around--Bernie seems to be picking off the impending-primary states--one by one. Clinton has lost 40 points in Iowa, since May. The race is a dead heat in Iowa--and it sure wasn't a dead heat at this time in 07. Clinton was leading by a wide margin. Also, Bernie is winning in NH and Clinton won NH last time.

So, Sanders is doing better this time around--than Obama was. Anyone who ignores this, is ignoring reality.

[BlueCaliDem]

27. Sanders is NO Obama.

To compare the two is ignoring reality.

Obama gained the Black and Latino vote. Asians jumped on board when they realized he wasn't too leftist (they're pretty moderate).

In summary, minorities still aren't feeling the Bern, and I predict, they won't.

Sanders will hit a wall in South Carolina and Nevada.

Bookmark this post and hit me with it if I'm proven wrong come late February 2016.

[CoffeeCat]

35. I agree that there are many unknowns...

...at this point.

However, my original point was that the national polls are fairly useless, because the individual state races change so dramatically when the campaigns come to those states.

I agree with you, that a big unknown is how African Americans and Latinos will vote. And Iowa and NH are predominantly white.

I don't think minorities have a particular problem with Sanders. He seemed to do quite well with the little campaigning that he has done in SC and other Southern areas. I do agree though--this is largely an unknown how the minority populations will vote.

The Clinton camp also predicted the same thing about Obama. She was supposed to have snatched the big union votes in Nevada and SC was projected to go to Hillary.

I see many similarities between Obama and Sanders--as far as the trajectory of this race, thus far.

I agree that Sanders isn't Obama. In a way, he's much more potent, when it comes to energizing the base of our party. I think the Progressive wing of our party really believes that he's the answer. We hoped that Obama would be--despite some moderate votes and policy stances. However, it's totally clear that Sanders is an outsider who has a very left agenda.

Whether or not that translates to moderates or other factions in our party--remains to be seen. I live in Iowa, and I've watched Sanders gain 40 points in the polls. Maybe that has jaded me a bit.

[frylock]

36. He's no Obama. He's polling better, hosts larger crowds at rallies, and is getting more donations.

[BlueCaliDem]

37. But can't get any love from minorities or Dem delegates. Obama won them all.

So you're right...Sanders is NO Obama.

[frylock]

38. Did Obama win the minority vote at this stage?

Dem delegates are in the tank for Hillary. Shocking development.

[BlueCaliDem]

39. No elections yet. Duh. So no, President Obama didn't win the minority vote YET

at this stage.

No delegates. No win. Obama - a lifelong DEMOCRAT - worked tirelessly and hard to garner as many delegates as he could, and although he got less in the popular vote than Hillary Clinton, he won the primary because of delegates and super delegates. And no, it's not shocking that a Democrat won't cast his/her support for a non-Democrat running for the Democratic nomination.

Like I said, Bernie is NO Obama. And I'm right about that.

[frylock]

40. So minorities had yet to decide they liked Obama at this stage in 2007?

Again, Sanders is polling better than Obama did at this stage in 2007, he has more money than Obama did at this stage in 2007, and he's drawing larger crowds than Obama did at this stage in 2007. So you can and others can continue to make that claim, and it's true. Sanders is doing better by every metric than Obama did at this stage in 2007.

[BlueCaliDem]

41. No. They had yet to VOTE at this stage. I thought I made that clear.

If you want to believe Bernie is better than Obama had been back in 2007, go right ahead and do so. Me? I'll remain in the reality based political world and continue to read the writing on the wall.

[frylock]

42. In what aspect was Obama doing better than Bernie during the same time frame?

Q3 2007 v Q3 2015. Teach me your reality based political world kung-fu.

[riversedge]

26. This poll shows that @HillaryClinton aligns best w/ Dem's key issues:

Larry Retweeted
Lee in Iowa ‏@Lee_in_Iowa 6m6 minutes ago

This poll shows that @HillaryClinton aligns best w/ Dem's key issues: http://wpo.st/



...............The poll finds Clinton leading Sanders and Biden among self-described Democratic voters and Dem-leaning independent voters: she has 45 percent; Sanders has 29 percent; and Biden has 18 percent. Take Biden out of the equation and Clinton leads Sanders by 56-33. Here’s the breakdown on the issues:

— 48 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle the economy, while 29 percent trust Sanders and 13 percent trust Biden.

— 52 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle health care, while 26 percent trust Sanders and 12 percent trust Biden.

— 49 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle race relations, while 26 percent trust Sanders and 11 percent trust Biden.

— 43 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle climate change, while 29 percent trust Sanders and 11 percent trust Biden.

— 62 percent percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle foreign policy, while 20 percent trust Biden and nine percent trust Sanders............more........

[BlueCaliDem]

29. Those are some awesome numbers! eom

[riversedge]

31. gun policy and income equaity--Hillary tops Sanders ......

I am so glad Hillary is going hard on gunsense

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/19/morning-plum-among-democrats-hillary-leads-bernie-and-biden-on-all-the-issues/?postshare=8041445263462046



— 44 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle gun policy, while 21 percent trust Biden and 20 percent trust Sanders.

— 43 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle income inequality, while 38 percent trust Sanders and 11 percent trust Biden.


It’s also notable that Clinton leads Sanders on the economy and income inequality (though on this one issue he’s much closer to her), given that the core of Sanders’ challenge is that his agenda to combat inequality is significantly more robust than hers, and more in sync with the scale of the structural economic challenges we face. (When it comes to taking on Wall Street, Paul Krugman has argued that Clinton actually has the better case to make than Sanders does.)......................

[sufrommich]

28. Nate Silvers predicted these numbers in his post debate

column,he thought Sanders and Clinton would get small bumps.Debates don't move numbers they way some think they do.

[thesquanderer]

30. To me, bigger story is the favorables and matchups, among all registered voters

HRC 44% favorable, BS 43% favorable, with a 3 point margin of error.

And making that even more notable is the unfavorables:

HRC 52% unfavorable (with essentially nobody left who hasn't heard of her)

BS only 30% unfavorable, with 17% still having never heard of him.

BS will eventually get known by most of that 17%, and some percentage of them will like him, meaning his Favorables will go up from the current 43%. HRC has no way to increase her Favorable without turning around some of the people who look at her Unfavorably, which is a much tougher task than appealing to someone who hasn't yet heard of you.

This speaks to Bernie having greater crossover appeal in the general.

Also, Clinton beats Trump 50 to 45, Sanders beats Trump 53 to 44, with 3 pt MOE, meaning Sanders more conclusively beats Trump. (They do about the same versus Carson... Carson gets 48 vs either Hillary's 47 or Bernie's 46 with a 3 point MOE.)

I'd like to see some polling against some of the more mainstream Republican candidates, because I still have a hard time believing either Trump or Carson will actually get the nomination. But who knows...

[riversedge]

32. But they still continue to TRUST Clinton LOTS MORE on key issues (to get the job done)..

Lee in Iowa ‏@Lee_in_Iowa 6m6 minutes ago

This poll shows that @HillaryClinton aligns best w/ Dem's key issues: http://wpo.st/



...............The poll finds Clinton leading Sanders and Biden among self-described Democratic voters and Dem-leaning independent voters: she has 45 percent; Sanders has 29 percent; and Biden has 18 percent. Take Biden out of the equation and Clinton leads Sanders by 56-33. Here’s the breakdown on the issues:

— 48 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle the economy, while 29 percent trust Sanders and 13 percent trust Biden.

— 52 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle health care, while 26 percent trust Sanders and 12 percent trust Biden.

— 49 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle race relations, while 26 percent trust Sanders and 11 percent trust Biden.

— 43 percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle climate change, while 29 percent trust Sanders and 11 percent trust Biden.

— 62 percent percent of self-described Democrats trust Clinton most to handle foreign policy, while 20 percent trust Biden and nine percent trust Sanders............more........

[thesquanderer]

33. I'm talking about registered voters, you're talking about Democrats.

My point was about crossover appeal in the general.

I concede that Bernie is unlikely to get that far.

But for those who are leaning toward Hillary because they think she'd be stronger in November, I think that's a bad rationale (both for the reasons I just mentioned, and also the ones in post #139 at http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251697741 )

But as for your figures about who Dems feel would better handle certain issues, I think you also have to allow for the fact that 23% of the Democrats polled hadn't heard of Sanders, and another 6% had heard of him but not enough to have formed an opinion. So, logically, Bernie should improve in those figures over time.

[riversedge]

34. point taken. Time wil tell