Why do polls show Sanders and Clinton losing to Ben Carson, but not Joe Biden?

[Algernon Moncrieff]

RCP has Sanders losing to Carson by 7.7

RCP has Clinton losing to Carson by 4.8

and RCP has Joe Biden beating Carson by 3.4

I'm not trying to endorse anyone here (full disclosure: I'm a Clinton supporter). I'm just trying to understand the logic of why someone would vote for Carson over Clinton and Sanders, but not Biden. Any guesses?

[HerbChestnut]

1. If Biden jumps in the race, expect his numbers to go down.

He hasn't had to deal with other candidates and the media campaigning against him yet.

[still_one]

3. In the primary his numbers already have gone down some since the debate

[still_one]

2. Sampling. Some polls poll more republicans then Democrats because they believe republicans are

more likely to vote than Democrats. I haven't looked at the links, but would like to see how those who describe themselves as independents trend

I also believe there is a lot of noise in these polls right now

[ruffburr]

4. Polling is a -

Rigged game just like MSM, It is all B.S. , Use your lying eyes and your common sense, Vote your conscience.

[elleng]

6. YES!

THANK YOU!

[Art_from_Ark]

7. Good advice

There are so many polls swirling around us giving contradictory "information" that it's like we're caught in a maelstrom in the Bermuda Triangle.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

9. PPP is generally a highly reliable poll

if anything - it skews to the Democrats. They show Carson winning.

[GoneFishin]

5. Because it fits someone's narrative. Given the devisive nature of the environment today my opinion

is that a bazaar result like that is more likely an attempt to influence voter sentiment rather than measure it.

[LonePirate]

8. Head-to-head match up polls are notoriously flawed 13 months before a presidential election.

First off, the public's attention is not on the election. Second, the polls are guessing at voter turnout and enthusiasm. Third, the popular vote percentages no longer approximate the electoral vote percentages - not even close. Dems will begin Election Day 2016 with well over 200 and possibly over 250 EVs in the bag no matter who is running. All we need are a couple of swing states to tip blue - and there are several of them that are likely blue already (such as VA); but the media still characterizes them as swing states in order to propagate the horse race nonsense.

Short of a major economic downturn or some terrifying world event or possibly an historic meltdown by the Dem candidate, the electoral dynamics on Election Day heavily favor the Dem nominee regardless if it is Biden, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders (candidates listed alphabetically) or someone else.

Pay absolutely no attention to any head-to-head match up with the Repubs leading. Besides, there is no way Carson could survive a debate with any Dem candidate. He would be torn to shreds alongside a possible self-implosion and Dems would easily win more than 400 EVs if he is the nominee.

[dsc]

10. because right now Biden is a highly sympathetic figure

who hasn't had to take a position on any issue of the day for awhile. The minute he announces, if he does announce, his numbers will start to fall.

[Cosmocat]

11. Because no one really has seen Carson

he more than anyone is benefiting from Trump and Hill sucking the air out of everyone else.

He is a HORRIBLE candidate, but in the hairbrained mentality of republicans and some "middle" people he sounds good.

Put him into the first chair and and have people REALLY listen to him and have to pay attention to him, and all of a sudden people see him as what he is - flaky and with, literally no personality whatsoever, and he goes away.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Because Biden has largely been out of the fray.

eom

[karynnj]

13. I think the details point to independents

At this point, before Biden is in, he has a decent favorable number among independents - where HRC is not doing well. I suspect that especially with the not well known Carson, many who in that two way choice, pick Carson, because they don't like or trust HRC.

I wonder if this could be that some of the "independents" are not just between the parties or not firmly aligned to either, but they may be more likely to choose based on what they think of the person - not issues.

This conjecture comes from having the same reaction as you - as to why anyone voting for Biden - wouldn't pick HRC, who is much closer on issues, than Carson, who may soft spoken or not be among the most extreme of the Republicans! Like you, in the general election I vote on issues -- which is why I was prepared,but not happy, when faced with the 2002 Senate election between a corrupt Democratic incumbent (Torricelli) and a RW Republican, with knowing 100% I was voting for the Democrat - especially as it was thought Senate control could depend on it.

If Biden enters and these results remain constant - it could impact the primaries. If polls consistently show that Biden or Sanders (or both) do better in general election matchups -- then the VERY argument that she was a slam dunk in the general election turns full circle.